Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/16178.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risk Sharing in Currency Unions: The Migration Channel

Author

Listed:
  • Müller, Gernot
  • Kohler, Wilhelm
  • Wellmann, Susanne
Abstract
International risk sharing insulates consumption from country-specific business-cycle fluctuations. This matters for countries in currency unions who lack monetary autonomy. In the spirit of Mundell, we formally integrate migration as a distinct channel into the standard framework used to quantify risk sharing. Comparing the euro area and the US we find that migration contributes significantly to risk sharing across US states, but not across the euro area. We also present survey evidence showing that migration rates are about 20 times higher in the US. The overall amount of risk sharing in the US is higher by a factor of two.

Suggested Citation

  • Müller, Gernot & Kohler, Wilhelm & Wellmann, Susanne, 2021. "Risk Sharing in Currency Unions: The Migration Channel," CEPR Discussion Papers 16178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16178
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP16178
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Enders, Zeno & Jung, Philip & Müller, Gernot J., 2013. "Has the Euro changed the business cycle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 189-211.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    3. Raven E. Saks & Abigail Wozniak, 2011. "Labor Reallocation over the Business Cycle: New Evidence from Internal Migration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(4), pages 697-739.
    4. Greg Kaplan & Sam Schulhofer‐Wohl, 2017. "Understanding The Long‐Run Decline In Interstate Migration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(1), pages 57-94, February.
    5. Julia Jauer & Thomas Liebig & John P. Martin & Patrick A. Puhani, 2019. "Migration as an adjustment mechanism in the crisis? A comparison of Europe and the United States 2006–2016," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 1-22, January.
    6. David Dorn & Josef Zweimüller, 2021. "Migration and Labor Market Integration in Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 49-76, Spring.
    7. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-854, November.
    8. Emmanuel Farhi & Ivan Werning, 2014. "Labor Mobility Within Currency Unions," Working Paper 165206, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    9. Decressin, Jorg & Fatas, Antonio, 1995. "Regional labor market dynamics in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1627-1655, December.
    10. Plamen Nikolov & Paolo Pasimeni, 2023. "Fiscal Stabilization in the United States: Lessons for Monetary Unions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 113-153, February.
    11. Michel Beine & Pauline Bourgeon & Jean‐Charles Bricongne, 2019. "Aggregate Fluctuations and International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(1), pages 117-152, January.
    12. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró, José-Luis, 2013. "Financial regulation, financial globalization, and the synchronization of economic activity," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld & Giovanni Peri, 1998. "Regional non-adjustment and fiscal policy," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 206-259.
    14. Lorenzo Caliendo & Luca David Opromolla & Fernando Parro & Alessandro Sforza, 2021. "Goods and Factor Market Integration: A Quantitative Assessment of the EU Enlargement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(12), pages 3491-3545.
    15. Pierfederico Asdrubali & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 1996. "Channels of Interstate Risk Sharing: United States 1963–1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(4), pages 1081-1110.
    16. Becker, Sascha O. & Hoffmann, Mathias, 2006. "Intra- and international risk-sharing in the short run and the long run," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 777-806, April.
    17. Mathias Hoffmann & Iryna Shcherbakova-Stewen, 2011. "Consumption Risk Sharing over the Business Cycle: The Role of Small Firms' Access to Credit Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1403-1416, November.
    18. Bent E. S�rensen & Oved Yosha, 1998. "International Risk Sharing and European Monetary Unification," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 327, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Ay?egül ?ahin & Joseph Song & Giorgio Topa & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "Mismatch Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3529-3564, November.
    20. Benjamin Born & Francesco D'Ascanio & Gernot Müller & Johannes Pfeifer, 2019. "The Worst of Both Worlds: Fiscal Policy and Fixed Exchange Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 7922, CESifo.
    21. Evers, Michael P., 2015. "Fiscal federalism and monetary unions: A quantitative assessment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 59-75.
    22. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2021. "The United States of Europe: A Gravity Model Evaluation of the Four Freedoms," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 23-48, Spring.
    23. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    24. Raven Molloy & Christopher L. Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2011. "Internal Migration in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 173-196, Summer.
    25. Gaetano Basso & Francesco D’Amuri & Giovanni Peri, 2019. "Immigrants, Labor Market Dynamics and Adjustment to Shocks in the Euro Area," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 528-572, September.
    26. Thierry Warin & Phanindra V. Wunnava & Hubert P. Janicki, 2009. "Testing Mundell's Intuition of Endogenous OCA Theory," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 74-86, February.
    27. Gnocchi, Stefano & Hauser, Daniela & Pappa, Evi, 2016. "Housework and fiscal expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 94-108.
    28. Patrick Coate & Kyle Mangum, 2019. "Fast Locations and Slowing Labor Mobility," Working Papers 19-49, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    29. Yuliya Demyanyk & Charlotte Ostergaard & Bent E. Sørensen, 2007. "U.S. Banking Deregulation, Small Businesses, and Interstate Insurance of Personal Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(6), pages 2763-2801, December.
    30. Valentina Milano, 2017. "Risk Sharing in the Euro Zone: the Role of European Institutions," Working Papers CELEG 1701, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    31. Alfonso Arpaia & Aron Kiss & Balazs Palvolgyi & Alessandro Turrini, 2016. "Labour mobility and labour market adjustment in the EU," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-21, December.
    32. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 2003. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 903-918, June.
    33. Mark Aguiar & Mark Bils & Kerwin Kofi Charles & Erik Hurst, 2021. "Leisure Luxuries and the Labor Supply of Young Men," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(2), pages 337-382.
    34. Francesco Furlanetto & Orjan Robstad, 2019. "Immigration and the macroeconomy: some new empirical evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 1-19, October.
    35. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martin Uribe, 2013. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and the Case for Temporary Inflation in the Eurozone," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 193-212, Summer.
    36. Christopher L. House & Christian Proebsting & Linda L. Tesar, 2018. "Quantifying the Benefits of Labor Mobility in a Currency Union," NBER Working Papers 25347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Ciminelli, Gabriele & Furtuna, Oana & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2020. "Private and public risk sharing in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    38. Martin Feldstein, 1997. "The Political Economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union: Political Sources of an Economic Liability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 23-42, Fall.
    39. Damba Lkhagvasuren, 2005. "Big Locational Differences in Unemployment Despite High Labor Mobility," Working Papers 12002, Concordia University, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2012.
    40. Florence Huart & Médédé Tchakpalla, 2019. "Labor Market Conditions and Geographic Mobility in the Eurozone," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(2), pages 263-284, June.
    41. Robert C. M. Beyer & Frank Smets, 2015. "Editor'S Choice Labour market adjustments and migration in Europe and the United States: how different?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(84), pages 643-682.
    42. Francesco Furlanetto & Orjan Robstad, 2019. "Immigration and the macroeconomy: some new empirical evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 1-19, October.
    43. Robert C. Feenstra, 2015. "Advanced International Trade: Theory and Evidence Second Edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10615.
    44. Lorenzo Caliendo & Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro, 2019. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 741-835, May.
    45. Greg Kaplan & Sam Schulhofer‐Wohl, 2017. "Understanding The Long‐Run Decline In Interstate Migration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58, pages 57-94, February.
    46. Michael J. Artis & Mathias Hoffmann, 2008. "Financial Globalization, International Business Cycles and Consumption Risk Sharing," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(3), pages 447-471, September.
    47. Faruk Balli & Bent E. Sørensen, 2006. "The Impact of the EMU on Channels of Risk Sharing between Member Countries," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, in: Oguz Esen & Ayla Ogus (ed.), Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources, pages 399-429, Izmir University of Economics.
    48. Kuester, Keith & Jung, Philip & Ignaszak, Marek, 2020. "Federal unemployment reinsurance and local labor-market policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 15465, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    49. Xiaofei MA, 2022. "Financial Integration and Labor Mobility in a Monetary Union," Springer Books, in: Hachmi BEN AMEUR & Zied FTITI & Wael LOUHICHI & Jean-Luc PRIGENT (ed.), Crises and Uncertainty in the Economy, chapter 0, pages 19-49, Springer.
    50. Smith, Christie & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2019. "Skilled migration and business cycle dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    51. Mathias Hoffmann & Egor Maslov & Bent E. Sørensen & Iryna Stewen, 2019. "Channels of Risk Sharing in the Eurozone: What Can Banking and Capital Market Union Achieve?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 443-495, September.
    52. Balli, Faruk & Rana, Faisal, 2015. "Determinants of risk sharing through remittances," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 107-116.
    53. Mai Dao & Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani, 2017. "Regional Labor Market Adjustment in the United States: Trend and Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 243-257, May.
    54. Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Pizzuto, Pietro, 2022. "Moving closer? Comparing regional adjustments to shocks in EMU and the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    55. Gaetano Basso & Giovanni Peri, 2020. "Internal Mobility: The Greater Responsiveness of Foreign-Born to Economic Conditions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 77-98, Summer.
    56. Smets, Frank & Beyer, Robert C. M., 2015. "Labour market adjustments in Europe and the US: How different?," Working Paper Series 1767, European Central Bank.
    57. Timo Mitze, 2019. "The migration response to local labour market shocks: Evidence from EU regions during the global economic crisis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(2), pages 271-298, April.
    58. David Parsley & Helen Popper, 2021. "Risk Sharing in a Politically Divided Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 649-669, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alcidi, Cinzia & D’Imperio, Paolo & Thirion, Gilles, 2023. "Risk-sharing and consumption-smoothing patterns in the US and the Euro Area: A comprehensive comparison," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 58-69.
    2. Braun, Sebastian Till & Weber, Henning, 2021. "How do regional labor markets adjust to immigration? A dynamic analysis for post-war Germany," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Pizzuto, Pietro, 2022. "Moving closer? Comparing regional adjustments to shocks in EMU and the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Florence Huart & Médédé Tchakpalla, 2019. "Labor Market Conditions and Geographic Mobility in the Eurozone," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(2), pages 263-284, June.
    5. Mai Dao & Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani, 2017. "Regional Labor Market Adjustment in the United States: Trend and Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 243-257, May.
    6. Gaetano Basso & Francesco D’Amuri & Giovanni Peri, 2019. "Immigrants, Labor Market Dynamics and Adjustment to Shocks in the Euro Area," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 528-572, September.
    7. Beck, Krzysztof & Yersh, Valeryia, 2024. "Economic integration and consumption risk sharing: A comparison of Eurozone and OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 784-803.
    8. Michael Amior & Alan Manning, 2018. "The Persistence of Local Joblessness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1942-1970, July.
    9. Parsley, David & Popper, Helen, 2019. "GDP Synchronicity and Risk Sharing Channels in a Monetary Union: Blue State and Red States," MPRA Paper 98981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Julia Jauer & Thomas Liebig & John P. Martin & Patrick A. Puhani, 2019. "Migration as an adjustment mechanism in the crisis? A comparison of Europe and the United States 2006–2016," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 1-22, January.
    11. Daragh Clancy & Lorenzo Ricci, 2019. "Loss aversion, economic sentiments and international consumption smoothing," Working Papers 35, European Stability Mechanism.
    12. Rémi Odry, 2020. "Academic Convergence and Migration: the effect of the BolognaProcess on European Mobility," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-24, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    13. David Parsley & Helen Popper, 2021. "Risk Sharing in a Politically Divided Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 649-669, September.
    14. Guilherme Bandeira & Jordi Caballe & Eugenia Vella, 2019. "Fiscal Austerity and Migration: A Missing Link," Working Papers 2019009, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    15. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Foster, Neil & Scharler, Johann, 2011. "Labour market rigidities and international risk sharing across OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 660-677, June.
    16. Becker, Sascha O. & Hoffmann, Mathias, 2010. "Equity fund ownership and the cross-regional diversification of household risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 90-102, January.
    17. Bandeira, Guilherme & Caballé, Jordi & Vella, Eugenia, 2022. "Emigration and fiscal austerity in a depression," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    18. Mai Dao & Davide Furceri & Mr. Prakash Loungani, 2014. "Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2014/211, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Fratzscher, Marcel & Imbs, Jean, 2009. "Risk sharing, finance, and institutions in international portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 428-447, December.
    20. Helge Berger & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Maurice Obstfeld, 2019. "Revisiting the Economic Case for Fiscal Union in the Euro Area," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 657-683, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk sharing; Currency unions; Labour migration; Migration rates; Euro area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.