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The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro-Complementarities

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  • Rohner, Dominic
  • Thoenig, Mathias
Abstract
This paper reviews the literature on civil conflict and development with an angle on the socio-economic consequences of violence and promising policies for fostering peace. We make four main points. First, one of the reasons why conflict is still often overlooked as key factor for development is that conflict costs are typically under-estimated, in particular for shadow costs of deterrence. Second, there are several types of war-traps that hold countries back -- both economically and politically. Third, for breaking these traps, policies must be calibrated to address jointly both poverty and social tensions, there being a strong macro complementarity between peace and development objectives. We document how "single-minded" policies that ignore this dual challenge can spectacularly fail, and discuss in depth a series of particularly promising policies. Fourth, we highlight the increasing potential of novel data collection methodologies and the need of policy evaluation tools in violent context.

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  • Rohner, Dominic & Thoenig, Mathias, 2020. "The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro-Complementarities," CEPR Discussion Papers 15574, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15574
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    6. Mueller, H. & Rauh, C. & Seimon, B., 2024. "Introducing a Global Dataset on Conflict Forecasts and News Topics," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2402, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; Civil war; Poverty; Development; Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

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