Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/14609.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Finance Approach to Climate Stress Testing

Author

Listed:
  • Schoenmaker, Dirk
  • Reinders, Henk Jan
  • Van Dijk, Mathijs
Abstract
There is increasing interest in assessing the impact of climate policies on the value of financial sector assets, and consequently on financial stability. Prior studies either take a “black box†macro-modelling approach to climate stress testing or focus solely on equity instruments – though banks’ exposures predominantly consist of debt. We take a more tractable finance (valuation) approach at the industry-level and use a Merton contingent claims model to assess the impact of a carbon tax shock on the market value of corporate debt and residential mortgages. We calibrate the model using detailed, proprietary exposure data for the Dutch banking sector. For a €100 to €200 per tonne carbon tax we find a substantial decline in the market value of banks’ assets equivalent to 4-63% of core capital, depending on policy choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Schoenmaker, Dirk & Reinders, Henk Jan & Van Dijk, Mathijs, 2020. "A Finance Approach to Climate Stress Testing," CEPR Discussion Papers 14609, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14609
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP14609
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    2. Vermeulen, Robert & Schets, Edo & Lohuis, Melanie & Kölbl, Barbara & Jansen, David-Jan & Heeringa, Willem, 2021. "The heat is on: A framework for measuring financial stress under disruptive energy transition scenarios," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Natalia Fabra & Mar Reguant, 2014. "Pass-Through of Emissions Costs in Electricity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2872-2899, September.
    4. Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. "Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-625, July.
    5. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    6. Ning Cai & S. G. Kou, 2011. "Option Pricing Under a Mixed-Exponential Jump Diffusion Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(11), pages 2067-2081, November.
    7. Connor, Gregory & Flavin, Thomas, 2015. "Strategic, unaffordability and dual-trigger default in the Irish mortgage market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 59-75.
    8. Christophe McGlade & Paul Ekins, 2015. "The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 517(7533), pages 187-190, January.
    9. Emanuele Campiglio & Yannis Dafermos & Pierre Monnin & Josh Ryan-Collins & Guido Schotten & Misa Tanaka, 2018. "Climate change challenges for central banks and financial regulators," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(6), pages 462-468, June.
    10. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
    11. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    12. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    13. Robin Smale & Murray Hartley & Cameron Hepburn & John Ward & Michael Grubb, 2006. "The impact of CO 2 emissions trading on firm profits and market prices," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 31-48, January.
    14. Stefano Battiston & Antoine Mandel & Irene Monasterolo & Franziska Schütze & Gabriele Visentin, 2017. "A climate stress-test of the financial system," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 283-288, April.
    15. Henry, Jérôme & Zimmermann, Maik & Leber, Miha & Kolb, Markus & Grodzicki, Maciej & Amzallag, Adrien & Vouldis, Angelos & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Pancaro, Cosimo & Gross, Marco & Baudino, Patrizia & Sydow, , 2013. "A macro stress testing framework for assessing systemic risks in the banking sector," Occasional Paper Series 152, European Central Bank.
    16. Joeri Rogelj & David L. McCollum & Andy Reisinger & Malte Meinshausen & Keywan Riahi, 2013. "Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation," Nature, Nature, vol. 493(7430), pages 79-83, January.
    17. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    18. Nordhaus, William D., 1993. "Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-50, March.
    19. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    20. Stanga, Irina & Vlahu, Razvan & de Haan, Jakob, 2020. "Mortgage arrears, regulation and institutions: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    21. Maria J. Nieto, 2019. "Banks, climate risk and financial stability," Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(2), pages 243-262, May.
    22. Joeri Rogelj & Alexander Popp & Katherine V. Calvin & Gunnar Luderer & Johannes Emmerling & David Gernaat & Shinichiro Fujimori & Jessica Strefler & Tomoko Hasegawa & Giacomo Marangoni & Volker Krey &, 2018. "Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(4), pages 325-332, April.
    23. Batten,, Sandra & Sowerbutts, Rhiannon & Tanaka, Misa, 2016. "Let’s talk about the weather: the impact of climate change on central banks," Bank of England working papers 603, Bank of England.
    24. Zhou, Chunsheng, 2001. "The term structure of credit spreads with jump risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 2015-2040, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Schoenmaker, Dirk & Reinders, Henk Jan & Van Dijk, Mathijs, 2020. "Is COVID-19 a threat to financial stability in Europe?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14922, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Allen N. Berger & Filippo Curti & Nika Lazaryan & Atanas Mihov & Raluca A. Roman, 2023. "Climate Risks in the U.S. Banking Sector: Evidence from Operational Losses and Extreme Storms," Working Papers 21-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    3. Louis Daumas, 2021. "Should we fear transition risks - A review of the applied literature," Working Papers 2021.05, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    4. Deng, Yirui & Yin, Mengjuan & Xu, Xiaofeng & Yu, Lean & Gao, Guowei & Ma, Li, 2024. "How to develop global energy-intensive sectors in the presence of carbon tariffs?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Eric Jondeau & Benoît Mojon & Cyril Monnet, 2021. "Greening (Runnable) Brown Assets with a Liquidity Backstop," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 21-22, Swiss Finance Institute.
    6. Bartsch, Florian & Busies, Iulia & Emambakhsh, Tina & Grill, Michael & Simoens, Mathieu & Spaggiari, Martina & Tamburrini, Fabio, 2024. "Designing a macroprudential capital buffer for climate-related risks," Working Paper Series 2943, European Central Bank.
    7. Sebastien Gallet & Antje Hendricks & Julja Prodani, 2024. "The ecosystem service degradation sensitivity indicator (EDSI): A new framework for understanding the financial risk repercussions of nature degradation," Working Papers 814, DNB.
    8. Gourdel, Régis & Sydow, Matthias, 2023. "Non-banks contagion and the uneven mitigation of climate risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    9. Nguyen, Quyen & Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & McCarten, Matthew & Tan, Eric K.M., 2023. "Climate transition risk in U.S. loan portfolios: Are all banks the same?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. Chao, Wang & Jing, Ma & Xiaoxing, Liu, 2023. "Optimizing systemic risk through credit network reconstruction," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    11. Nguyen, Quyen & Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda, 2023. "In search of climate distress risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    12. Gourdel, Régis & Sydow, Matthias, 2022. "Non-banks contagion and the uneven mitigation of climate risk," Working Paper Series 2757, European Central Bank.
    13. Siddhartha Biswas & Mallick Hossain & David Zink, 2023. "California Wildfires, Property Damage, and Mortgage Repayment," Working Papers 23-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    14. Zhang, Dayong & Wu, Yalin & Ji, Qiang & Guo, Kun & Lucey, Brian, 2024. "Climate impacts on the loan quality of Chinese regional commercial banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    15. Richard Berner & Robert Engle & Hyeyoon Jung, 2021. "CRISK: Measuring the Climate Risk Exposure of the Financial System," Staff Reports 977, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    16. Chabot, Miia & Bertrand, Jean-Louis, 2023. "Climate risks and financial stability: Evidence from the European financial system," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schoenmaker, Dirk & Reinders, Henk Jan & Van Dijk, Mathijs, 2020. "Is COVID-19 a threat to financial stability in Europe?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14922, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Moraux, Franck, 2004. "Modeling the business risk of financially weakened firms: A new approach for corporate bond pricing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 47-61.
    3. Gregor Semieniuk & Emanuele Campiglio & Jean‐Francois Mercure & Ulrich Volz & Neil R. Edwards, 2021. "Low‐carbon transition risks for finance," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    4. Nguyen, Quyen & Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & McCarten, Matthew & Tan, Eric K.M., 2023. "Climate transition risk in U.S. loan portfolios: Are all banks the same?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Murphy, Austin & Headley, Adrian, 2022. "An empirical evaluation of alternative fundamental models of credit spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    6. Zhou, Chunsheng, 2001. "The term structure of credit spreads with jump risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 2015-2040, November.
    7. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2011, January-A.
    8. Abel Elizalde, 2006. "Credit Risk Models II: Structural Models," Working Papers wp2006_0606, CEMFI.
    9. Sheen X. Liu & Howard Qi & Chunchi Wu, 2006. "Personal Taxes, Endogenous Default, and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(6), pages 939-954, June.
    10. Samuel Chege Maina, 2011. "Credit Risk Modelling in Markovian HJM Term Structure Class of Models with Stochastic Volatility," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5, July-Dece.
    11. Han-Hsing Lee & Kuanyu Shih & Kehluh Wang, 2016. "Measuring sovereign credit risk using a structural model approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1097-1128, November.
    12. Xiao, Weilin & Zhang, Xili, 2016. "Pricing equity warrants with a promised lowest price in Merton’s jump–diffusion model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 219-238.
    13. Specht, Leon, 2023. "An Empirical Analysis of European Credit Default Swap Spread Dynamics," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 8(1), pages 1-42.
    14. Nan Chen & S. G. Kou, 2009. "Credit Spreads, Optimal Capital Structure, And Implied Volatility With Endogenous Default And Jump Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 343-378, July.
    15. Dionne, Georges & Laajimi, Sadok, 2012. "On the determinants of the implied default barrier," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 395-408.
    16. SHAH, Syed Muhammad Noaman Ahmed & KEBEWAR, mazen, 2013. "US Corporate Bond Yield Spread: A default risk debate," MPRA Paper 44887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Nijskens, Rob & Mokas, Dimitris, 2019. "Credit Risk in Commercial Real Estate Bank Loans : The Role of Idiosyncratic versus Macro-Economic Factors," Other publications TiSEM ea4f2f0e-dc50-4987-91d3-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Saito, Makoto, 2009. "Credit spreads on corporate bonds and the macroeconomy in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 309-331, September.
    19. Jean-David Fermanian, 2020. "On the Dependence between Default Risk and Recovery Rates in Structural Models," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 140, pages 45-82.
    20. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate stress test; Contingent claims analysis; Climate policies; Carbon tax; Banks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14609. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.