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The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Author

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  • Bianchi, Francesco
  • Kung, Howard
  • Tirskikh, Mikhail
Abstract
We construct and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that features demand- and supply-side uncertainty. Using term structure and macroeconomic data, we find sizable effects of uncertainty on risk premia and business cycle fluctuations. Both demand-side and supply-side uncertainty imply large contractions in real activity and an increase in term premia, but supply-side uncertainty has larger effects on inflation and investment. We introduce a novel analytical decomposition to illustrate how multiple distinct risk propagation channels account for these differences. Supply and demand uncertainty are strongly correlated in the beginning of our sample, but decouple in the aftermath of the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Bianchi, Francesco & Kung, Howard & Tirskikh, Mikhail, 2019. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 13450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13450
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    5. Bonciani, Dario & Oh, Joonseok Jason, 2019. "The long-run effects of uncertainty shocks," Bank of England working papers 802, Bank of England.
    6. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Papadopoulou, Niki X., 2020. "On the credit and exchange rate channels of central bank asset purchases in a monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 502-533.
    7. Bandi, Federico M. & Bretscher, Lorenzo & Tamoni, Andrea, 2023. "Return predictability with endogenous growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
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    9. Oliver de Groot & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2022. "Valuation risk revalued," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), pages 723-759, May.
    10. Gabriel Arce‐Alfaro & Boris Blagov, 2023. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 70-94, February.
    11. Boyan Jovanovic & Sai Ma, 2022. "Uncertainty and Growth Disasters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 33-64, April.
    12. Gao, Lin & Hitzemann, Steffen & Shaliastovich, Ivan & Xu, Lai, 2022. "Oil volatility risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 456-491.
    13. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "The impact and role of COVID-19 uncertainty: A global industry analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2022_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2022. "Monetary policy transmission during QE times: role of expectations and term premia channels," Bank of England working papers 978, Bank of England, revised 31 Aug 2022.
    16. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    17. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    18. Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2022. "Equilibrium Yield Curves with Imperfect Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-086, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Li, Erica X.N. & Zha, Tao & Zhang, Ji & Zhou, Hao, 2022. "Does fiscal policy matter for stock-bond return correlation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 20-34.
    20. Alex Hsu & Erica X. N. Li & Francisco Palomino, 2021. "Real and Nominal Equilibrium Yield Curves," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1138-1158, February.
    21. Xu, Qinhua & Fu, Buben & Wang, Bin, 2022. "The effects of oil price uncertainty on China’s economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    22. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2023. "The Real Response to Uncertainty Shocks: The Risk Premium Channel," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 119-140, January.
    23. Gareth Lui-Evans & Shalini Mitra, 2019. "Informality and Bank Stability," Working Papers 201903, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    24. Mario Canales & Bernabe Lopez-Martin, 2021. "Uncertainty, Risk, and Price-Setting: Evidence from CPI Microdata," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 908, Central Bank of Chile.
    25. Arce-Alfaro, Gabriel & Blagov, Boris, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and inflation expectations," Ruhr Economic Papers 899, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty shocks; Business cycles; Term structure of interest rates; Time-varying risk premia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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