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Using RCTs to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development Economics

Author

Listed:
  • Kremer, Michael
  • Bougen, Adrien
  • Huang, Yue
  • Miguel, Edward
Abstract
We assess evidence from randomized control trials (RCTs) on long-run economic productivity and living standards in poor countries. We first document that several studies estimate large positive long-run impacts, but that relatively few existing RCTs have been evaluated over the long-run. We next present evidence from a systematic survey of existing RCTs, with a focus on cash transfer and child health programs, and show that a meaningful subset can realistically be evaluated for long-run effects. We discuss ways to bridge the gap between the burgeoning number of development RCTs and the limited number that have been followed up to date, including through new panel (longitudinal) data, improved participant tracking methods, alternative research designs, and access to administrative, remote sensing, and cell phone data. We conclude that the rise of development economics RCTs since roughly 2000 provides a novel opportunity to generate high-quality evidence on the long-run drivers of living standards.

Suggested Citation

  • Kremer, Michael & Bougen, Adrien & Huang, Yue & Miguel, Edward, 2019. "Using RCTs to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development Economics," CEPR Discussion Papers 13443, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13443
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bergquist, Lauren & Faber, Benjamin & Fally, Thibault & Hoelzlein, Matthias & Miguel, Edward & Rodríguez-Clare, Andres, 2022. "Scaling Agricultural Policy Interventions," CEPR Discussion Papers 17737, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Jiafeng Chen & David M. Ritzwoller, 2021. "Semiparametric Estimation of Long-Term Treatment Effects," Papers 2107.14405, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    3. Ben Eyre, 2021. "Effective or expedient: Market devices and philanthropic techniques," Economic Anthropology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 234-246, June.
    4. von Grafenstein, Liza & Kumar, Abhijeet & Kumar, Santosh & Vollmer, Sebastian, 2021. "Impacts of Double-Fortified Salt on Anemia and Cognition: Four-Year Follow-up Evidence from a School-Based Nutrition Intervention in India," IZA Discussion Papers 14627, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Dennis Egger & Johannes Haushofer & Edward Miguel & Paul Niehaus & Michael Walker, 2022. "General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers: Experimental Evidence From Kenya," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(6), pages 2603-2643, November.
    6. Eunbin Chung & Inbok Rhee, 2022. "Disasters and intergroup peace in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(1), pages 58-72, January.
    7. Pedro Carneiro & Lucy Kraftman & Giacomo Mason & Lucie Moore & Imran Rasul & Molly Scott, 2021. "The Impacts of a Multifaceted Prenatal Intervention on Human Capital Accumulation in Early Life," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(8), pages 2506-2549, August.
    8. Kumar, G. Naveen, 2023. "Improving public school productivity: Evidence from model schools in India," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    9. Casey, Katherine & Glennerster, Rachel & Miguel, Edward & Voors, Maarten, 2023. "Long-Run Effects of Aid: Forecasts and Evidence from Sierra Leone," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2qk20435, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    10. Corduneanu-Huci, Cristina & Dorsch, Michael T. & Maarek, Paul, 2021. "The politics of experimentation: Political competition and randomized controlled trials," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 1-21.
    11. Manuel Trajtenberg, 2020. "Comment on Innovation in the US Federal Government," NBER Chapters, in: The Role of Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Economic Growth, pages 464-473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Joan Hamory & Edward Miguel & Michael W. Walker & Michael Kremer & Sarah J. Baird, 2020. "Twenty Year Economic Impacts of Deworming," NBER Working Papers 27611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Vikram Tyagi & Sophie Webber, 2021. "A rusting gold standard: Failures in an Indonesian RCT, and the implications for poverty reduction," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 53(5), pages 992-1011, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Randomized controlled trials; Long-run impacts; Panel (longitudinal) data; Development economics; Cash transfers; Child health;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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