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Global financial cycles and risk premiums

Author

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  • Taylor, Alan M.
  • Jordà , Ã’scar
  • Schularick, Moritz
  • Ward, Felix
Abstract
This paper studies the synchronization of financial cycles across 17 advanced economies over the past 150 years. The comovement in credit, house prices, and equity prices has reached historical highs in the past three decades. The sharp increase in the comovement of global equity markets is particularly notable. We demonstrate that fluctuations in risk premiums, and not risk-free rates and dividends, account for a large part of the observed equity price synchronization after 1990. We also show that U.S. monetary policy has come to play an important role as a source of fluctuations in risk appetite across global equity markets. These fluctuations are transmitted across both fixed and floating exchange rate regimes, but the effects are more muted in floating rate regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor, Alan M. & Jordà , Ã’scar & Schularick, Moritz & Ward, Felix, 2018. "Global financial cycles and risk premiums," CEPR Discussion Papers 12969, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12969
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial cycles; Equity return premium; Policy spillovers; Financial centers; Asset prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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