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Demographic Dividends Revisited

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  • Williamson, Jeffrey G.
Abstract
This paper revisits demographic dividend issues after almost two decades of debate. In 1998, David Bloom and Jeffrey Williamson used a convergence model to estimate the impact of demographic-transition-driven age structure effects and calculated what the literature has come to call the demographic dividend. How do estimates based on these naïve convergence models compare with subsequent and competing OLG models? How much of the (first) demographic dividend is simply a labor participation rate effect, and how much a true growth effect? If there are growth effects, how much of this is based on accelerating human capital accumulation induced by demand side quality-quantity Becker trade-offs versus a co-movement between demographic transitions and exogenous schooling supply side revolutions? Emigration has passed through life cycles much like the demographic transition, and with similar (but lagged) timing. Has emigration actually been driven in part by demography? Has emigration wasted some of the demographic dividend by brain drain? Have within-country rural-urban migrations been driven in part by demographic transitions with different spatial timing? Finally, what has been the lifetime ? not just annual -- income inequality impact of demographic transitions?

Suggested Citation

  • Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2013. "Demographic Dividends Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 9390, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9390
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    Cited by:

    1. Gemma Abío & Concepció Patxot & Miguel Sánchez-Romero & Guadalupe Souto, 2017. "The welfare state and demographic dividends," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(48), pages 1453-1490.
    2. Nick Parr & Ross Guest, 2014. "A method for socially evaluating the effects of long-run demographic paths on living standards," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(11), pages 275-318.
    3. Baerlocher, Diogo & Parente, Stephen L. & Rios-Neto, Eduardo, 2019. "Economic effects of demographic dividend in Brazilian regions," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    4. Barker, Tom & Üngör, Murat, 2019. "Vietnam: The next asian Tiger?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 96-118.
    5. Federico Barbiellini Amidei & Matteo Gomellini & Paolo Piselli, 2018. "The contribution of demography to Italy's economic growth: a two-hundred-year-long story," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 431, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Lamar Crombach & Jeroen Smits, 2022. "The Demographic Window of Opportunity and Economic Growth at Sub-National Level in 91 Developing Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 171-189, May.
    7. Julia Włodarczyk & Indranarain Ramlall & Jan Acedański, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of an Ageing Population in Mauritius," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 551-574, December.
    8. Gemma Abio Roig & Concepció Patxot Cardoner & Miguel Sánchez-Romero & Guadalupe Souto Nieves, 2015. "The Welfare State and the demographic dividend: A cross-country comparison," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2015/332, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    9. Miguel Sánchez-Romero & Gemma Abio & Concepció Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2018. "Contribution of demography to economic growth," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 27-64, March.
    10. Rocha de Jesus Fernandes, Anderson & Lanza Queiroz, Bernardo, 2024. "Aging, education and some other implications for the silver dividend in developing countries: Evidence from Brazil," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    11. Miguel Sánchez Romero & Naohiro Ogawa & Rikiya Matsukura, 2013. "To give or not to give: bequest estimate and wealth impact based on a CGE model with realistic demography in Japan," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2013-012, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asia.; Demographic dividends; Demographic transitions; Growth; Inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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