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The Impact of COVID-19 on Small Business Dynamics and Employment: Real-time Estimates With Homebase Data

Author

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  • André Kurmann
  • Étienne Lalé
  • Lien Ta
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an explosion of research using real-time establishment-level data. One key challenge when working with this data is how to take into account the effects of business openings and closings. In this paper, we address this challenge by matching small business establishment records from Homebase with information on business activity from Google, Facebook, and Safegraph to distinguish business closings and openings from other sample exits and entry. We show that this distinction is critical to benchmark the data to pre-pandemic administrative records and estimate the effects of the pandemic on small business activity. We find four key results: (1) employment of small businesses in four of the hardest hit service sectors contracted more severely in the beginning of the pandemic than employment of larger businesses, but small businesses also rebounded more strongly and have on average recovered a higher share of job losses than larger businesses; (2) closings account for 70% of the initial decline in small business employment, but two thirds of closed businesses have reopened and the annual rate of closings is just slightly higher than prior to the pandemic; (3) new openings of small businesses constitute an important driver of the recovery but the annual rate of new openings is only about half the rate one year earlier (4) small business employment was affected less negatively in counties with early access to loans from the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and in counties where Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) was more generous relative to pre-pandemic earnings of likely recipients, with business closings accounting for a large part of these two effects. The results dispel the popular notion that small businesses continue to suffer more from the pandemic than larger businesses. At the same time, our analysis suggests that PPP and FPUC helped to signifocantly mitigate the negative effects of the pandemic for small businesses by, respectively, alleviating financial constraints and stimulating demand for local services. La pandémie de COVID-19 a donné lieu à une explosion des recherches utilisant des données en temps réel au niveau des établissements. L'un des principaux défis à relever lorsqu'on travaille avec ces données est de prendre en compte les effets des ouvertures et des fermetures d'entreprises. Dans cet article, nous relevons ce défi en faisant correspondre les enregistrements des établissements de petites entreprises de Homebase avec les informations sur l'activité commerciale de Google, Facebook et Safegraph afin de distinguer les fermetures et ouvertures d'entreprises des autres sorties et entrées de l'échantillon. Nous montrons que cette distinction est essentielle pour comparer les données aux dossiers administratifs pré-pandémie et estimer les effets de la pandémie sur l'activité des petites entreprises. Nous trouvons quatre résultats clés : (1) l'emploi des petites entreprises dans quatre des secteurs de services les plus durement touchés s'est contracté plus sévèrement au début de la pandémie que l'emploi des grandes entreprises, mais les petites entreprises ont également rebondi plus fortement et ont en moyenne récupéré une part plus importante des pertes d'emploi que les grandes entreprises ; (2) les fermetures représentent 70 % de la baisse initiale de l'emploi des petites entreprises, mais deux tiers des entreprises fermées ont rouvert et le taux annuel de fermetures est à peine plus élevé qu'avant la pandémie ; (3) les nouvelles ouvertures de petites entreprises constituent un moteur important de la reprise, mais le taux annuel de nouvelles ouvertures n'est que la moitié environ du taux enregistré un an plus tôt (4) l'emploi des petites entreprises a été moins affecté dans les comtés qui ont eu accès rapidement aux prêts du Programme de protection des salaires (PPP) et dans les comtés où l'indemnisation fédérale du chômage en cas de pandémie (FPUC) a été plus généreuse par rapport aux revenus des bénéficiaires probables avant la pandémie, les fermetures d'entreprises expliquant une grande partie de ces deux effets. Les résultats réfutent la notion populaire selon laquelle les petites entreprises continuent de souffrir davantage de la pandémie que les grandes entreprises. Dans le même temps, notre analyse suggère que le PPP et le FPUC ont contribué à atténuer de manière significative les effets négatifs de la pandémie pour les petites entreprises, respectivement en allégeant les contraintes financières et en stimulant la demande de services locaux.

Suggested Citation

  • André Kurmann & Étienne Lalé & Lien Ta, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Small Business Dynamics and Employment: Real-time Estimates With Homebase Data," CIRANO Working Papers 2021s-26, CIRANO.
    • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2021s-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & Harun Alp & Nicholas Bloom & William Kerr, 2018. "Innovation, Reallocation, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(11), pages 3450-3491, November.
    2. Tomaz Cajner & Leland D. Crane & Ryan A. Decker & John Grigsby & Adrian Hamins-Puertolas & Erik Hurst & Christopher Johann Kurz & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2020. "The U.S. Labor Market During the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession," Working Papers 2020-58_Revision, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Betcherman,Gordon & Giannakopoulos,Nicholas & Laliotis,Ioannis & Pantelaiou,Ioanna & Testaverde,Mauro & Tzimas,Giannis, 2020. "Reacting Quickly and Protecting Jobs : The Short-Term Impacts of the COVID-19 Lockdown on the Greek Labor Market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9356, The World Bank.
    2. Alexander Bick & Adam Blandin, 2023. "Employer Reallocation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Validation and Application of a Do-It-Yourself CPS," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 58-76, July.
    3. García-Suaza, A & Rodríguez-González, D & Sarango, A & Mayorga, J. D & Pretel, A & Husain-Talero, S & Zarama, L & Urbano, J. C., Girón, D., Medina, N, 2022. "Los impactos de la inclusión financiera en los micronegocios: factores que explican aumentos en los ingresos y crecimiento de los negocios," Documentos de Trabajo 20418, Universidad del Rosario.
    4. Hall, Robert E. & Kudlyak, Marianna, 2022. "The unemployed with jobs and without jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Alexander Bick & Adam Blandin, 2023. "Employer Reallocation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Validation and Application of a Do-It-Yourself CPS," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 58-76, July.
    6. Crane, Leland D. & Decker, Ryan A. & Flaaen, Aaron & Hamins-Puertolas, Adrian & Kurz, Christopher, 2022. "Business exit during the COVID-19 pandemic: Non-traditional measures in historical context," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Gustavo Joaquim & J. Christina Wang, 2022. "What Do 25 Million Records of Small Businesses Say about the Effects of the PPP?," Working Papers 22-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    8. Daniel E. Rigobon & Thibaut Duprey & Artur Kotlicki & Philip Schnattinger & Soheil Baharian & Thomas R. Hurd, 2022. "Business Closures and (Re)Openings in Real-Time Using Google Places: Proof of Concept," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-10, April.
    9. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Dirk Krueger & André Kurmann & Etienne Lalé & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2023. "The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 35-98, March.
    10. Peter Ganong & Fiona Greig & Max Liebeskind & Pascal Noel & Daniel Sullivan & Joseph Vavra, 2021. "Spending and Job Search Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data," Working Papers 2021-19, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    11. Alejandra Bellatin & Gabriela Galassi, 2022. "What COVID-19 May Leave Behind: Technology-Related Job Postings in Canada," Staff Working Papers 22-17, Bank of Canada.
    12. Birinci, Serdar & Karahan, Fatih & Mercan, Yusuf & See, Kurt, 2021. "Labor market policies during an epidemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    13. Thibaut Duprey & Daniel E. Rigobon & Philip Schnattinger & Artur Kotlicki & Soheil Baharian & T. R. Hurd, 2022. "Business Closures and (Re)Openings in Real Time Using Google Places," Staff Working Papers 22-1, Bank of Canada.
    14. Liu, Sitian & Su, Yichen, 2021. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the demand for density: Evidence from the U.S. housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    15. Achou, Bertrand & De Donder, Philippe & Glenzer, Franca & Lee, Minjoon & Leroux, Marie-Louise, 2022. "Nursing home aversion post-pandemic: Implications for savings and long-term care policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 1-21.
    16. Autor, David & Cho, David & Crane, Leland D. & Goldar, Mita & Lutz, Byron & Montes, Joshua & Peterman, William B. & Ratner, David & Villar, Daniel & Yildirmaz, Ahu, 2022. "An evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program using administrative payroll microdata," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    17. Meghana Ayyagari & Yuxi Cheng & Ariel Weinberger, 2022. "Surviving Pandemics: The Role of Spillovers," CESifo Working Paper Series 9891, CESifo.
    18. Alessandro Di Nola & Leo Kaas & Haomin Wang, 2023. "Rescue policies for small businesses in the Covid-19 recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 579-603, December.
    19. Bognanni, Mark & Hanley, Doug & Kolliner, Daniel & Mitman, Kurt, 2020. "Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model," IZA Discussion Papers 13797, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Hirvonen, Johannes & Kässi, Otto & Ropponen, Olli, 2023. "Jobs, Workers, and Firms: Dissecting the Labour Market Effects of Finland’s COVID-19 Subsidy Program," ETLA Working Papers 111, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    21. Doniger, Cynthia L. & Kay, Benjamin, 2023. "Long-lived employment effects of delays in emergency financing for small businesses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 78-91.
    22. Falk Bräuning & José Fillat & J. Christina Wang, 2022. "Did High Leverage Render Small Businesses Vulnerable to the COVID-19 Shock?," Working Papers 22-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    23. David Autor & David Cho & Leland D. Crane & Mita Goldar & Byron Lutz & Joshua Montes & William B. Peterman & David Ratner & Daniel Villar & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2022. "The $800 Billion Paycheck Protection Program: Where Did the Money Go and Why Did It Go There?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 55-80, Spring.
    24. Ilan Strauss & Gilad Isaacs & Josh Rosenberg, 2021. "The effect of shocks to GDP on employment in SADC member states during COVID‐19 using a Bayesian hierarchical model," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 221-237, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economics of small and medium enterprises; Labor turnover; Sampling bias; Matched data; COVID-19; Sector policies; Economie des petites et moyennes entreprises; Rotation de la main d’œuvre; Biais d’échantillonnage; Données appariées; COVID-19; Politiques sectorielles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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