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The Economics of Young Democracies: Policies and Performance

Author

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  • Ethan Kapstein
  • Nathan Converse
Abstract
Since the “third wave” of democratization began in 1974, nearly 100 states have adopted democratic forms of government, including, of course, most of the former Soviet bloc nations. Policy-makers in the west have expressed the hope that this democratic wave will extend even further, to the Middle East and onward to China. But the durability of this new democratic age remains an open question. By some accounts, at least half of the world’s young democracies—often referred to in the academic literature as being “unconsolidated” or “fragile”—are still struggling to develop their political institutions, and several have reverted back to authoritarian rule. Among the countries in the early stages of democratic institution building are states vital to U.S. national security interests, including Afghanistan and Iraq. The ability of fledgling democracies to maintain popular support depends in part on the ability of their governments to deliver economic policies that meet with widespread approval. But what sorts of economic policies are these, and are they necessarily the same as the policies required for tackling difficult issues of economic stabilization and reform? Conversely, what sorts of economic policies are most likely to spark a backlash against young and fragile democratic regimes? Do the leaders of young democracies face trade-offs as they ponder their electoral and economic strategies? These are among the questions we explore in this paper, which provides an overview of the monograph we are currently writing on the economics of young democracies. We do so first by exploring the hypothesized relationships between democratic politics and economic policy, as well as the findings of several important empirical studies with respect to the economic performance of young democracies around the world. We then provide some descriptive statistics on how the new democracies have fared in practice, making use of a new dataset that we have compiled (and which, among other things, is more up-to-date than most others cited herein). Do the data reveal any distinctive economic patterns with respect to democratic consolidation and reversal? We will show that they do. In particular, we find that deteriorating or stagnant economic performance constitutes a red flag or warning signal that the country is at risk of democratic reversal. Moreover, we find considerable variation in economic performance, suggesting that the design of political institutions in new democracies may have a significant influence on the probability of their survival.

Suggested Citation

  • Ethan Kapstein & Nathan Converse, 2006. "The Economics of Young Democracies: Policies and Performance," Working Papers 85, Center for Global Development.
    • Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:85
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    File URL: http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/6583
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    Cited by:

    1. Eliza Lis & Christiane Nickel, 2010. "The impact of extreme weather events on budget balances," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 17(4), pages 378-399, August.
    2. Izabela Jedrzejowska-Schiffauer & Peter Schiffauer & Gratiela Georgiana Noja, 2020. "Economic Actors and the Problem of Externalities: Could Financial Markets Play a Role in Democratic Backsliding?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 215-238.
    3. Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane, 2009. "The impact of extreme weather events on budget balances and implications for fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 1055, European Central Bank.

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    Keywords

    Democratic transition;

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative

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