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State Dependence of Fiscal Multipliers: The Source of Fluctuations Matters

Author

Listed:
  • Mishel Ghassibe

    (Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREi))

  • Francesco Zanetti

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract
We develop a general theory of state-dependent fiscal multipliers in a framework featuring two empirically relevant frictions: idle capacity and unsatisfied demand. Our key novel finding is that the source of fluctuations determines the cyclicality of multipliers. Policies that stimulate demand, such as government spending, have multipliers that are large in demand-driven recessions, but small and possibly negative in supply-driven downturns. Conversely, policies that boost supply, such as cuts in payroll taxes, are ineffective in demand-driven recessions, but powerful if the downturn is supply-driven. Austerity, implemented by a reduction in government consumption, can be the policy with the largest multiplier in supply-side recessions and demand-driven booms, provided elasticities of labor demand and supply are sufficiently low. We obtain model-free empirical support for our predictions by developing a novel econometric specification that allows to estimate spending and tax multipliers in recessions and expansions, conditional on those being either demand- or supply-driven.

Suggested Citation

  • Mishel Ghassibe & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "State Dependence of Fiscal Multipliers: The Source of Fluctuations Matters," Discussion Papers 2208, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    • Handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:2208
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; fiscal multipliers; state dependence; search in the goods market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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