Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cfe/wpcefa/2016_04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monitoring tourism flows and destination management: Empirical evidence for Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Andraz

    (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve and CEFAGE)

  • Paulo Rodrigues

    (Banco de Portugal and NOVA School of Business and Economics, Universidade Nova de Lisboa)

Abstract
We propose the use of a tool recently introduced by Gayer (2010), known as the "economic climate tracer", to analyze and monitor the cyclical evolution of tourism source markets to Portugal. Considering the period 1987-2015, we evaluate how tourism to Portugal has been affected by economic cycles. This tool is useful as it clearly illustrates the evolutionary patterns of different markets, and allows us to identify close relationships with economic fluctuations. We found that German tourism plays a leading role, since its movements are followed with delays by tourism flows from other countries, and exhibits higher resilience to shocks. Also, domestic and Spanish tourism have both displayed less irregular behaviors than tourism from other source markets. On the contrary, tourism from the Netherlands and the UK, have displayed irregular patterns, which demonstrates the urgency to diversify tourism source markets to reduce the country's vulnerability to external shocks and economic cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Andraz & Paulo Rodrigues, 2016. "Monitoring tourism flows and destination management: Empirical evidence for Portugal," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2016_04, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
    • Handle: RePEc:cfe:wpcefa:2016_04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cefage.uevora.pt/en/content/download/6285/75380/version/1/file/2016_04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    2. Jorge L.M. Andraz & Pedro M.D.C.B. Gouveia & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2009. "Modelling and Forecasting the UK Tourism Growth Cycle in Algarve," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 323-338, June.
    3. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
    4. Darrian Collins & Clem Tisdell, 2004. "Outbound Business Travel Depends on Business Returns: Australian Evidence," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 192-207, June.
    5. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
    6. Raffaele Paci & Emanuela Marrocu, 2014. "Tourism and regional growth in Europe," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93, pages 25-50, November.
    7. Lim, Christine & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "A cointegration analysis of annual tourism demand by Malaysia for Australia," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 197-205.
    8. Eric Neumayer, 2004. "The Impact of Political Violence on Tourism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(2), pages 259-281, April.
    9. Guizzardi, Andrea & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2010. "Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 367-377.
    10. Aguayo, E., 2011. "Impact of Tourism on Employment: An Econometric Model of 50 CEEB Regions," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 11(1).
    11. Pedro M.D.C.B. Gouveia & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2005. "Dating and Synchronizing Tourism Growth Cycles," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(4), pages 501-515, December.
    12. Crouch, Geoffrey I., 1996. "Demand elasticities in international marketing : A meta-analytical application to tourism," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 117-136, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Belucio Matheus & Fuinhas José Alberto & Vieira Carlos, 2023. "How does the economy affect a religious phenomenon? A panel approach to international pilgrimages to the Shrine of Fátima," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 110-124, December.
    2. David Bienvenido-Huertas & Fátima Farinha & Miguel José Oliveira & Elisa M. J. Silva & Rui Lança, 2020. "Challenge for Planning by Using Cluster Methodology: The Case Study of the Algarve Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Flora Maria Díaz-Pérez & Carlos Gustavo García-González & Alan Fyall, 2021. "Accommodation, Seasonality and Domestic Tourism to National Parks: Implications for Environmental Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-26, April.
    4. Ioannis Kostakis, 2020. "Is Tourism a Key Factor for Economic Growth? Fresh Evidence from South Europe Using Panel Cointegration and PVAR Analyses," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 123-138, December.
    5. Ioannis Kostakis & Eleni Theodoropoulou, 2017. "Spatial analysis of the nexus between tourism–human capital–economic growth," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(7), pages 1523-1534, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guizzardi, Andrea & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2010. "Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 367-377.
    2. Jorge M. Andraz & Nélia M. Norte & Hugo S. Gonçalves, 2016. "Do tourism spillovers matter in regional economic analysis? An application to Portugal," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(5), pages 939-963, October.
    3. Robertico Croes & Jorge Ridderstaat, 2017. "The effects of business cycles on tourism demand flows in small island destinations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(7), pages 1451-1475, November.
    4. Cem Işık & Ercan Sirakaya-Turk & Serdar Ongan, 2020. "Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1344-1357, December.
    5. Dogru, Tarik & Sirakaya-Turk, Ercan & Crouch, Geoffrey I., 2017. "Remodeling international tourism demand: Old theory and new evidence," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 47-55.
    6. Peter Fuleky & Carl S. Bonham & Qianxue Zhao, 2013. "Estimating Demand Elasticities in Non-Stationary Panels: The Case of Hawaii's Tourism Industry," Working Papers 201314, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    7. Paul Cashin & Sam Ouliaris, 2004. "Key Features of Australian Business Cycles," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 39-58, March.
    8. L.A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Fractional Cyclical Structures & Business Cycles in the Specification of the US Real Output," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 99-126.
    9. Gu, Xinhua & Wu, Jie & Guo, Haizhen & Li, Guoqiang, 2018. "Local tourism cycle and external business cycle," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 159-170.
    10. Rua, Antonio & Nunes, Luis C., 2005. "Coincident and leading indicators for the euro area: A frequency band approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 503-523.
    11. repec:hae:wpaper:2013-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Veli YILANCI & Sertaç HOPOĞLU & Hakan ERYÜZLÜ, 2023. "The impact of the economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks on tourism demand of Mexico," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(636), A), pages 147-164, Autumn.
    13. Kožić Ivan & Arčabić Vladimir & Sever Ivan, 2022. "Tourism and Business Cycles: Does the Relationship Fade Away?," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 25(1), pages 95-110.
    14. Marisol Valencia Cárdenas & Juan Gabriel Vanegas López & Juan Carlos Correa Morales & Jorge Aníbal Restrepo Morales, 2017. "Comparing forecasts for tourism dynamics in Medellín, Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 86, pages 199-230, Enero - J.
    15. Valencia Cárdenas, Marisol & Vanegas López, Juan Gabriel & Correa Morales, Juan Carlos & Restrepo Morales, Jorge Aníbal, 2016. "Comparación de pronósticos para la dinámica del turismo en Medellín, Colombia," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 86, pages 199-230, December.
    16. Houssine Choyakh, 2008. "A Model of Tourism Demand for Tunisia: Inclusion of the Tourism Investment Variable," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(4), pages 819-838, December.
    17. Peng, Bo & Song, Haiyan & Crouch, Geoffrey I., 2014. "A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 181-193.
    18. Habibullah, Muzafar & Haji Din, Badariah & Tan, Siow-Hooi, 2018. "Does Country with Multi-ethnic, Multi-linguistic and Multi-religious Society Induce Tourist Arrivals? Worldwide Evidence," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(1), pages 105-115.
    19. Quintero Otero, Jorge David & Padilla Sierra, Alcides de Jesús, 2024. "Impacto de la sincronización sub-nacional sobre el comportamiento de los ciclos nacionales en economías emergentes con inflación objetivo," Documentos Departamento de Economía 54, Universidad del Norte.
    20. Hasan Engin Duran, 2014. "Short-Run Dynamics of Income Disparities and Regional Cycle Synchronization in the U.S," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 292-332, June.
    21. Davide Provenzano, 2020. "The migration–tourism nexus in the EU28," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1374-1393, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourism cycles; tourism demand; Portugal; crises.;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfe:wpcefa:2016_04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Angela Pacheco (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfevopt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.