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Do Different Estimation Methods Lead to Implausible Differences in the Size of the Non-Observed or Shadow Economies? A Preliminary Answer

Author

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  • Friedrich Schneider
Abstract
In this paper, first, six micro (4) and macro (2) estimation approaches are briefly described; they are the National Accounts Statistics discrepancy method and two new micro survey methods, a third one using a combination of company manager surveys and their knowledge to calibrate the size of the shadow economy in firms, and the consumption-income-gap of households method. The two macro methods are the MIMIC method and a structured hybrid method of the Currency demand and MIMIC models. Second, a detailed comparison of the results of four micro estimation methods with the macro MIMIC method are presented. One major result is that the estimated size of the shadow economy using the MIMIC method comes close to the size of the shadow economy of various types of recently developed micro survey methods. Third, using behavioral economics, some remarks are made about the reasons that individuals work in the shadow economy, and which estimation methods are best suited to apply this approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedrich Schneider, 2021. "Do Different Estimation Methods Lead to Implausible Differences in the Size of the Non-Observed or Shadow Economies? A Preliminary Answer," CESifo Working Paper Series 9434, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9434
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benno Torgler, 2002. "Speaking to Theorists and Searching for Facts: Tax Morale and Tax Compliance in Experiments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 657-683, December.
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    4. Schneider, Friedrich, 2005. "Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 598-642, September.
    5. Putniņš, Tālis J. & Sauka, Arnis, 2015. "Measuring the shadow economy using company managers," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 471-490.
    6. Lars P. Feld & Friedrich Schneider, 2010. "Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(2), pages 109-149, May.
    7. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo.
    8. Lichard, Tomáš & Hanousek, Jan & Filer, Randall K., 2012. "Measuring the Shadow Economy: Endogenous Switching Regression with Unobserved Separation," IZA Discussion Papers 6901, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Benno Torgler & Friedrich Schneider, 2007. "What Shapes Attitudes Toward Paying Taxes? Evidence from Multicultural European Countries," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 88(2), pages 443-470, June.
    10. Benno Torgler, 2021. "Behavioral Taxation: Opportunities and Challenges," CREMA Working Paper Series 2021-25, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    11. Hanousek, Jan & Lichard, Tomáš & Torosyan, Karine, 2016. "‘Flattening’ the Tax Evasion: Evidence from the Post-Communist Natural Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 11229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    15. Torgler, Benno, 2016. "Can Tax Compliance Research Profit from Biology?," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 3(1), pages 113-144, April.
    16. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2009. "The impact of tax morale and institutional quality on the shadow economy," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 228-245, April.
    17. Claudio Quintano & Paolo Mazzocchi, 2010. "Some Alternative Estimates of Underground Economies in 12 New EU Member States," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 611-628.
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    22. Schneider,Friedrich & Enste,Dominik H., 2016. "The Shadow Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781316600894, October.
    23. Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Comment on Feige's Paper "Reflections on the Meaning and Measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the 'Shadow Economy'?"," CESifo Working Paper Series 5818, CESifo.
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    35. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    36. Tomáš Lichard & Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 2021. "Hidden in plain sight: using household data to measure the shadow economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1449-1476, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Massomeh Hajilee & Farhang Niroomand & Linda A. Hayes, 2023. "The relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy in OECD countries: An asymmetric analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 539-566, September.
    2. Burgstaller, Lilith & Feld, Lars P. & Pfeil, Katharina, 2022. "Working in the shadow: Survey techniques for measuring and explaining undeclared work," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 661-671.
    3. Arezzo, Maria Felice & Horodnic, Ioana A. & Williams, Colin C. & Guagnano, Giuseppina, 2024. "Measuring participation in undeclared work in Europe using survey data: A method for resolving social desirability bias," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    MIMIC estimation methods; macro and adjusted; micro survey method asking company managers; micro survey method using household data; using the consumption-income-gap; comparison of results of size of shadow economy of mostly OECD countries; shadow economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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