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Consumption Dynamics and Welfare under Non-Gaussian Earnings Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Fatih Guvenen
  • Serdar Ozkan
  • Rocio Madera
Abstract
Recent empirical studies document that the distribution of earnings changes displays substantial deviations from lognormality: in particular, earnings changes are negatively skewed with extremely high kurtosis (long and thick tails), and these non-Gaussian features vary substantially both over the life cycle and with the earnings level of individuals. Furthermore, earnings changes display nonlinear (asymmetric) mean reversion. In this paper, we embed a very rich “benchmark earnings process” that captures these non-Gaussian and nonlinear features into a lifecycle consumption-saving model and study its implications for consumption dynamics, consumption insurance, and welfare. We show four main results. First, the benchmark process essentially matches the empirical lifetime earnings inequality—a first-order proxy for consumption inequality—whereas the canonical Gaussian (persistent-plus-transitory) process understates it by a factor of five to ten. Second, the welfare cost of idiosyncratic risk implied by the benchmark process is between two-to-four times higher than the canonical Gaussian one. Third, the standard method in the literature for measuring the pass-through of income shocks to consumption—can significantly overstate the degree of consumption smoothing possible under non-Gaussian shocks. Fourth, the marginal propensity to consume out of transitory income (e.g., from a stimulus check) is higher under non-Gaussian earnings risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatih Guvenen & Serdar Ozkan & Rocio Madera, 2024. "Consumption Dynamics and Welfare under Non-Gaussian Earnings Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 11135, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11135
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Elin Halvorsen & Joachim Hubmer & Serdar Ozkan & Sergio Salgado, 2024. "Why Are the Wealthiest So Wealthy? New Longitudinal Empirical Evidence and Implications for Theories of Wealth Inequality," Working Papers 2024-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    idiosyncratic earnings risk; higher-order earnings risk; non-Gaussian shocks; incomplete markets models; consumption insurance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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