Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cer/papers/wp297.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Foreign Exchange Risk Premium Determinants: Case of Armenia

Author

Listed:
  • Tigran Poghosyan
  • Evzen Kocenda
Abstract
This paper studies foreign exchange risk premium using the uncovered interest rate parity framework in a model economy. The analysis is performed using weekly data on foreign and domestic currency deposits in the Armenian banking system. Results of the study indicate that contrary to the established view there is a positive correspondence between exchange rate depreciation and interest rate differentials. Further, it is shown that a systematic positive risk premium required by economic agents for foreign exchange transactions increases over the investment horizon. One-factor two-currency affine term structure framework applied in the paper is not sufficient to explain the driving forces behind the positive exchange rate risk premium. GARCH approach shows that central bank interventions and deposit volumes are two factors explaining time-varying exchange rate risk premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Tigran Poghosyan & Evzen Kocenda, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Risk Premium Determinants: Case of Armenia," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp297, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    • Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp297
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp297.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2002. "Emerging market liberalization and the impact on uncovered interest rate parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 931-956, November.
    2. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. "An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-1227, July.
    3. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971, Elsevier.
    4. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 748-752, November.
    5. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    6. Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 1995. "Dollarization in Transition Economies: Evidence and Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 1995/096, International Monetary Fund.
    7. David K. Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris I. Telmer, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, February.
    8. Jeremy J. Siegel, 1972. "Risk, Interest Rates and the Forward Exchange," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 86(2), pages 303-309.
    9. Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1995. "Dollarization in transition economies: Evidence and policy implications," MPRA Paper 20490, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
    11. Hiona Balfoussia & Mike Wickens, 2007. "Macroeconomic Sources of Risk in the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 205-236, February.
    12. Kirikos, Dimitris G, 2002. "Discrete Policy Interventions and Rational Forecast Errors in Foreign Exchange Markets: The Uncovered Interest Parity Hypothesis Revisited," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 327-338, October.
    13. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
    14. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    15. Edgar L Feige, 2003. "Dynamics of Currency Substitution, Asset Substitution and De facto Dollarisation and Euroisation in Transition Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 45(3), pages 358-383, September.
    16. Golinelli, Roberto & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission, interest rate rules and inflation targeting in three transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 183-201, January.
    17. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-6.
    18. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1979. "A continuous time approach to the pricing of bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 133-155, July.
    19. Peter Smith & Michael Wickens, 2002. "Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 397-446, July.
    20. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, October.
    22. Krasker, William S., 1980. "The `peso problem' in testing the efficiency of forward exchange markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 269-276, April.
    23. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-338, April.
    24. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-192, Summer.
    25. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
    26. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-770, August.
    27. Wickens, Michael R. & Smith, Peter N, 2002. "Macroeconomic Sources of FOREX Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 3148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Exchange rate risk and convergence to the Euro," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    29. Michael J. Brennan and Eduardo S. Schwartz., 1979. "A Continuous-Time Approach to the Pricing of Bonds," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 85, University of California at Berkeley.
    30. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield‐Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406, October.
    31. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
    32. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1992. "Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1259-1282, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Égert, Balázs & Kočenda, Evžen, 2014. "The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 73-88.
    2. Carmen Gloria Silva, 2010. "Forward premium puzzle and term structure of interest rates: the case of New Zealand," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 570, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Bhatta, Guna Raj & Nepal, Rabindra & Harvie, Charles & Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2022. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity condition in a small open economy: A state space modelling approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Stepanyan Ara & Tevosyan Anahit, 2008. "A small open economy model with remittances: Evidence from Armenian economy," EERC Working Paper Series 08/06e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    5. repec:eid:wpaper:02/11 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Aysun, Uluc & Lee, Sanglim, 2014. "Can time-varying risk premiums explain the excess returns in the interest rate parity condition?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 78-100.
    7. Kim, Heeho, 2011. "The risk adjusted uncovered equity parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1491-1505.
    8. Yemba, Boniface P., 2022. "User cost of foreign monetary assets under dollarization," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    9. Li, Dandan & Ghoshray, Atanu & Morley, Bruce, 2012. "Measuring the risk premium in uncovered interest parity using the component GARCH-M model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 167-176.
    10. C. Emre Alper & Oya Pinar Ardic & Salih Fendoglu, 2009. "The Economics Of The Uncovered Interest Parity Condition For Emerging Markets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 115-138, February.
    11. José Eduardo Gómez-González & Andrés F. García-Suaza, 2012. "A Simple Test of Momentum in Foreign Exchange Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(5), pages 66-77, September.
    12. Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Gajdka, Jerzy & Kutan, Ali M., 2015. "Investor response to public news, sentiment and institutional trading in emerging markets: A review," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 338-352.
    13. Dandan Li & A Ghoshray & Bruce Morley, 2011. "Uncovered Interest Parity and the Risk Premium," Department of Economics Working Papers 02/11, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    14. Kumar, Satish, 2019. "Does risk premium help uncover the uncovered interest parity failure?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    15. Uluc Aysun & Sanglim Lee, 2013. "The determinants of the deviations from the interest rate parity condition," Working Papers 2013-03, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    16. Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Kutan, Ali M., 2015. "Public information arrival and investor reaction during a period of institutional change: An episode of early years of a newly independent central bank," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 727-753.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. C. Emre Alper & Oya Pinar Ardic & Salih Fendoglu, 2009. "The Economics Of The Uncovered Interest Parity Condition For Emerging Markets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 115-138, February.
    2. Mahdavi, Mahnaz, 2008. "A comparison of international short-term rates under no arbitrage condition," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 303-318.
    3. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    4. repec:wyi:journl:002108 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Jacobs, Kris, 2008. "Is long memory necessary? An empirical investigation of nonnegative interest rate processes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 567-581, June.
    7. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    8. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Hyginus Leon, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 443-482, September.
    9. Zongwu Cai & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Some Recent Developments in Nonparametric Finance," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    10. Jun Yu & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "A Gaussian approach for continuous time models of the short-term interest rate," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 1-3.
    11. Cai, Zongwu & Hong, Yongmiao, 2003. "Nonparametric Methods in Continuous-Time Finance: A Selective Review," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,15, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    12. Haitao Li & Yuewu Xu, 2009. "Short Rate Dynamics and Regime Shifts," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 211-241, September.
    13. Fergusson, Kevin, 2020. "Less-Expensive Valuation And Reserving Of Long-Dated Variable Annuities When Interest Rates And Mortality Rates Are Stochastic," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 381-417, May.
    14. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June.
    15. repec:uts:finphd:40 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Shu Wu, 2007. "Interest Rate Risk and the Forward Premium Anomaly in Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 423-442, March.
    17. Oldrich Alfons Vasicek & Francisco Venegas-Martínez, 2021. "Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Review, Trends, and Perspectives," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(2), pages 1-28, Abril - J.
    18. Giuseppe Arbia & Michele Di Marcantonio, 2015. "Forecasting Interest Rates Using Geostatistical Techniques," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-28, November.
    19. Richard T. Baillie & Rehim Kilic, 2005. "Do Asymmetric and Nonlinear Adjustments Explain the Forward Premium Anomaly?," Working Papers 543, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    20. Tang, Kin-Boon, 2011. "The precise form of uncovered interest parity: A heterogeneous panel application in ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 568-573.
    21. Zhiwu Chen & Gurdip Bakshi, 2001. "Stock Valuation in Dynamic Economics," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm198, Yale School of Management.
    22. Broze, Laurence & Scaillet, Olivier & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1995. "Testing for continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 199-223, September.
    23. Muhammad Omer & Jakob de Haan & Bert Scholtens, 2019. "Does Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Hold After All?," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 49-72, July-Dec.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    “Forward premium” puzzle; exchange rate risk; time-varying risk premium; affine term structure models; GARCH-in-Mean; foreign and domestic deposits; transition and emerging markets; Armenia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lucie Vasiljevova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eiacacz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.