Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cep/cepdps/dp2010.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

It takes (more than) a moment: Estimating trade flows with superstar exporters

Author

Listed:
  • Giorgio Barba Navaretti
  • Matteo Bugamelli
  • Emanuele Forlani
  • Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano
Abstract
Understanding producers' selection into exporting and its consequences for micro-founded gravity estimation calls for an in-depth analysis of the interplay between aggregate exports and the distribution of producers' productivity. Yet, knowledge about such interplay is still rather limited from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint. We supplement this knowledge by studying how different moments of the distribution of producers' productivity affect the trade elasticity, and in turn how shocks that alter those moments in different ways may have different impacts on aggregate exports. We first show that, to obtain an unbiased measure of that elasticity, gravity regressions have to account not only for the share of producers that export, but also for their productivity premium relative to all producers. This is particularly important when the share is small and the premium is large, that is, when aggregate exports are driven by few overperforming 'superstar exporters'. We then assess how aggregate exports react to shocks entailing the same change in the first moment of the distribution of producers' productivity, but different changes in its higher moments. Our empirical results confirm that taking into full consideration the productivity premium of exporters and the occurrence of 'superstar exporters' is crucial to correctly explain and predict the response of aggregate exports to different productivity shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgio Barba Navaretti & Matteo Bugamelli & Emanuele Forlani & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2024. "It takes (more than) a moment: Estimating trade flows with superstar exporters," CEP Discussion Papers dp2010, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp2010.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p2m9j4i07 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer & Mathias Thoenig, 2014. "Welfare and Trade without Pareto," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 310-316, May.
    3. Nicolas Berman & Vincent Rebeyrol & Vincent Vicard, 2019. "Demand Learning and Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Exporters," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 91-106, March.
    4. Thierry Mayer & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2008. "The Happy Few: The Internationalisation of European Firms," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 43(3), pages 135-148, May.
    5. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2014. "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1303-1340, July.
    6. Marc J. Melitz & Stephen J. Redding, 2015. "New Trade Models, New Welfare Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1105-1146, March.
    7. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    8. Fally, Thibault, 2015. "Structural gravity and fixed effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 76-85.
    9. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario, 2008. "Interdependent preferential trade agreement memberships: An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 384-399, December.
    11. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
    12. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/nki2gcedn93280ns6fslbhdnm is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-1721, September.
    15. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10147 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Olsen, Randall J, 1980. "A Least Squares Correction for Selectivity Bias," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(7), pages 1815-1820, November.
    18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5fjm1f1p0v93k9png4qo8ltnrf is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Eric Bartelsman & John Haltiwanger & Stefano Scarpetta, 2013. "Cross-Country Differences in Productivity: The Role of Allocation and Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 305-334, February.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2j87pv5ou185f980qgrpf9net0 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6apm7lruv088iagm4rv2c33jtg is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Ana M. Fernandes & Peter J. Klenow & Sergii Meleshchuk & Martha Denisse Pierola & Andrés Rodríguez- Clare, 2023. "The Intensive Margin in Trade: How Big and How Important?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 320-354, July.
    23. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/10147 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p2m9j4i07 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Esposito, Federico, 2022. "Demand risk and diversification through international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Görg, Holger & Henze, Philipp & Jienwatcharamongkhol, Viroj & Kopasker, Daniel & Molana, Hassan & Montagna, Catia & Sjöholm, Fredrik, 2017. "Firm size distribution and employment fluctuations: Theory and evidence," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(4), pages 690-703.
    3. Koenig, Pamina & Mayneris, Florian & Poncet, Sandra, 2010. "Local export spillovers in France," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 622-641, May.
    4. Kozo Kiyota & Toshiyuki Matsuura & Lionel Nesta, 2019. "What'S Behind The Figures? Quantifying The Cross‐Country Exporter Productivity Gap," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(3), pages 1256-1271, July.
    5. Flach, Lisandra & Unger, Florian, 2022. "Quality and gravity in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Heid, Benedikt & Stähler, Frank, 2024. "Structural gravity and the gains from trade under imperfect competition: Quantifying the effects of the European Single Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Hsu, Wen-Tai & Lu, Yi & Wu, Guiying Laura, 2020. "Competition, markups, and gains from trade: A quantitative analysis of China between 1995 and 2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    8. ARA Tomohiro, 2021. "Competition, Productivity and Trade, Reconsidered," Discussion papers 21032, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Esposito, Federico, 2019. "Demand Risk and Diversification through Trade," MPRA Paper 99875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Luis Castro & Ben G. Li & Keith E. Maskus & Yiqing Xie, 2016. "Fixed Export Costs and Export Behavior," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(1), pages 300-320, July.
    11. Gregory Corcos & Massimo Del Gatto & Giordano Mion & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, 2012. "Productivity and Firm Selection: Quantifying the ‘New’ Gains from Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(561), pages 754-798, June.
    12. Gouel, Christophe & Jean, Sébastien, 2023. "Love of variety and gains from trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    13. Huang, Hanwei & Manova, Kalina & Perelló, Oscar & Pisch, Frank, 2024. "Firm Heterogeneity and Imperfect Competition in Global Production Networks," CEPR Discussion Papers 19408, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Egger, Peter & , & Nigai, Sergey, 2020. "Empirical Productivity Distributions and International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 15160, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Feenstra, Robert C., 2018. "Restoring the product variety and pro-competitive gains from trade with heterogeneous firms and bounded productivity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 16-27.
    16. Erick Sager & Olga A. Timoshenko, 2019. "The double EMG distribution and trade elasticities," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 1523-1557, November.
    17. Bas, Maria & Mayer, Thierry & Thoenig, Mathias, 2017. "From micro to macro: Demand, supply, and heterogeneity in the trade elasticity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-19.
    18. Marco Bee & Stefano Schiavo, 2018. "Powerless: gains from trade when firm productivity is not Pareto distributed," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(1), pages 15-45, February.
    19. James E. Anderson & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2015. "Growth and Trade with Frictions: A Structural Estimation Framework," NBER Working Papers 21377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Ines Buono, 2009. "Firm heterogeneity and comparative advantage: the response of French firms to Turkey's entry in the European Customs Union," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 715, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade flows; superstar exporters;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/discussion-papers/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.