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The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income

Author

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  • Bryan A. Stuart
Abstract
This paper examines the long-run effects of the 1980-1982 recession on education and income. Using confidential Census data, I estimate generalized difference-in-differences regressions that exploit variation across counties in the severity of the recession and across cohorts in age at the time of the recession. I find that children born in counties with a more severe recession are less likely to obtain a college degree and, as adults, earn less income and experience higher poverty rates. The negative effects on college graduation are most severe and essentially constant for individuals age 0-13 in 1979, suggesting that the underlying mechanisms are a decline in childhood human capital or a long-term decline in parental resources to pay for college. I find little evidence that states with more generous or more progressive transfer systems mitigated these long-run effects. The magnitude of my estimates and the large number of affected individuals suggest that the 1980-1982 recession depresses aggregate economic output today.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryan A. Stuart, 2017. "The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income," Working Papers 17-52, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:17-52
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    8. César, Andrés & Ciaschi, Matías & Falcone, Guillermo & Neidhöfer, Guido, 2023. "Trade shocks and social mobility: The intergenerational effect of import competition in Brazil," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-042, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Regan, Mark, 2020. "Wage scarring among unlucky European cohorts," Papers WP668, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Bladimir Carrillo, 2020. "Present Bias and Underinvestment in Education? Long-Run Effects of Childhood Exposure to Booms in Colombia," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(4), pages 1127-1265.
    11. Tao, Yunqing & Wang, Dianjie & Ye, Yongwei & Wu, Haitao & Zhang, Yao, 2023. "The role of public environmental concern on corporate social responsibility: Evidence from search index of web users," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
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    17. Jeremy Kirk, 2024. "The Impact of Parental Resources on Human Capital Investment and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the Great Recession," Working Papers 24-34, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    human capital development; income; education; recessions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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