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Now-casting Irish GDP

Author

Listed:
  • D'Agostino, Antonello

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

  • McQuinn, Kieran

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

  • O'Brien, Derry

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

Abstract
In this paper we present "now-casts" of Irish GDP using timely data from a panel data set of 41 different variables. The approach seeks to resolve two issues which commonly confront forecastors of GDP - how to parsimoniously avail of the many different series, which can potentially influence GDP and how to reconcile the within-quarterly release of many of these series with the quarterly estimates of GDP? The now-casts in this paper are generated by firstly, using dynamic factor analysis to extract a common factor from the panel data set and, secondly, through use of bridging equations to relate the monthly data to the quarterly GDP estimates. We conduct an out-of-sample forecasting simulation exercise, where the results of the now-casting exercise are compared with those of a standard benchmark model.

Suggested Citation

  • D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Brien, Derry, 2008. "Now-casting Irish GDP," Research Technical Papers 9/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:9/rt/08
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
    3. Colm McCarthy, 2004. "Volatility in Irish quarterly macroeconomic data," Open Access publications 10197/564, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
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    5. Kitchen, John & Monaco, Ralph, 2003. "Real-Time Forecasting in Practice: The U.S. Treasury Staff's Real-Time GDP Forecast System," MPRA Paper 21068, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2003.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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