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Taxes and Economic Growth in OECD Countries: A Meta-Analysis

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Abstract
This study performs a meta-analysis of the effect of taxes on economic growth in OECD countries. A challenge with synthesizing tax estimates is that they measure different things. This follows because studies differ in the government budget constraints implied by their regression specifications. To address this problem, we use a taxonomy from Gemmell, Kneller, and Sanz (2009) that predicts the growth effects from various tax-spending-deficit combinations. We apply this taxonomy to 979 estimates from 49 studies of tax effects in OECD countries. Our headline result is that a 10% increase in taxes is associated with a decrease in annual GDP growth of approximately -0.2% when bundled as part of a TaxNegative taxspending- deficit combination. The same tax increase is associated with an increase in annual GDP growth of approximately 0.2% when part of a TaxPositive fiscal policy package. All of our data, output, and programming code is publicly available at https://osf.io/6bfgx/.

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  • Nazila Alinaghi & W. Robert Reed, 2020. "Taxes and Economic Growth in OECD Countries: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers in Economics 20/12, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:20/12
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Meta-analysis; Taxes; Economic growth; OECD;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

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