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Rules-Based Monetary Policy and the Threat of Indeterminacy When Trend Inflation is Low

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Abstract
Indeterminacy in new Keynesian models with Calvo-contracts can occur even at low trend inflation levels of 2 or 3%. The interaction of trend inflation with nominal wage rigidity and trend growth in output causes large distortions in the steady state and expands the indeterminacy region. Consequently, even interest rate rules with strong inflation responses may not be sufficient to ensure determinacy. A policy rule reacting to output growth but not to output gap significantly increasesthe prospect of determinacy. Although the threat of indeterminacy is less severe under Taylor-contracts, significant departures from the original Taylor principle are required for determinacy.

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  • Hashmat Khan & Louis Phaneuf & Jean Gardy Victor, 2018. "Rules-Based Monetary Policy and the Threat of Indeterminacy When Trend Inflation is Low," Carleton Economic Papers 18-08, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 08 Mar 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:car:carecp:18-08
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hashmat Khan & Louis Phaneuf & Jean Gardy Victor, 2020. "A Tale of Two Major Postwar Business Cycle Episodes," Working Papers 20-03, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    3. Kengo Nutahara, 2021. "Trend inflation, asset prices and monetary policy," CIGS Working Paper Series 21-004E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    4. Joshua Brault & Hashmat Khan & Louis Phaneuf & Jean Gardy Victor, 2021. "Did the Fed Remain at the ZLB Long Enough? Lessons from the 2008-2019 Period," Working Papers 21-09, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    5. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Wille Van Zandweghe, 2023. "Inflation Gap Persistence, Indeterminacy, and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 867-887, December.
    6. Tom D. Holden, 2024. "Robust Real Rate Rules," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1551, September.
    7. Louis Phaneuf & Jean Gardy Victor, 2020. "Nominal Contracting With Positive Trend Inflation: Which Way to Go?," Working Papers 20-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    8. Kengo NUTAHARA, 2022. "A benefit of monetary policy response to inequality," CIGS Working Paper Series 22-006E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    9. Laura Castillo-Martinez & Ricardo Reis, 2024. "How do central banks control inflation? A guide for the perplexed," Discussion Papers 2433, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    10. Joshua Brault, 2024. "Parallel Tempering for DSGE Estimation," Staff Working Papers 24-13, Bank of Canada.
    11. Louis Phaneuf & Jean Gardy Victor, 2019. "Long‐Run Inflation and the Distorting Effects of Sticky Wages and Technical Change," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 5-42, February.
    12. Joshua Brault & Hashmat Khan & Louis Phaneuf & Jean Gardy Victor, 2021. "US Postwar Macroeconomic Fluctuations Without Indeterminacy," Carleton Economic Papers 21-01, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 25 May 2021.
    13. Joshua Brault & Louis Phaneuf, 2021. "Higher Order Interest-Smoothing, Time-Varying Inflation Target and the Prospect of Indeterminacy," Working Papers 21-10, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Low trend inflation; Taylor rule; Output gap; Output growth; Sticky wages; Trend growth; Determinacy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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