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Estimation and empirical performance of non-scalar dynamic conditional correlation models

Author

Listed:
  • BAUWENS, Luc

    (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium)

  • GRIGORYEVA, Lyudmila

    (Laboratoire de Mathematiques de Besançon, Université de Franche-Comté, France)

  • ORTEGA, Juan-Pablo

    (Laboratoire de Mathematiques de Besançon, Université de Franche-Comté, France)

Abstract
This paper presents a method capable of estimating richly parametrized versions of the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model that go beyond the standard scalar case. The algorithm is based on the maximization of a Gaussian quasi-likelihood using a Bregman-proximal trust-region method to handle the various non-linear stationarity and positivity constraints that arise in this context. We consider the general matrix Hadamard DCC model with full rank, rank equal to two and, additionally, two different rank one matrix specifications. In the last mentioned case, the elements of the vectors that determine the rank one parameter matrices are either arbitrary or parsimoniously defined using the Almon lag function. We use actual stock returns data in dimensions up to thirty in order to carry out performance comparisons according to several in- and out-of-sample criteria. Our empirical results show that the use of richly parametrized models adds value with respect to the conventional scalar case.

Suggested Citation

  • BAUWENS, Luc & GRIGORYEVA, Lyudmila & ORTEGA, Juan-Pablo, 2014. "Estimation and empirical performance of non-scalar dynamic conditional correlation models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2014012, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2014012
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    20. Chrétien, Stéphane & Ortega, Juan-Pablo, 2014. "Multivariate GARCH estimation via a Bregman-proximal trust-region method," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 210-236.
    21. LAMAS, ALEJANDRO & CHEVALIER, Philippe, 2013. "Jumping the hurdles for collaboration: fairness in operations pooling in the absence of transfer payments," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2013073, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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    Cited by:

    1. Grigoryeva, Lyudmila & Ortega, Juan-Pablo & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2018. "Volatility forecasting using global stochastic financial trends extracted from non-synchronous data," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 67-82.
    2. Gu, Huaying & Liu, Zhixue & Weng, Yingliang, 2017. "Time-varying correlations in global real estate markets: A multivariate GARCH with spatial effects approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 460-472.
    3. Bauwens, Luc & Braione, Manuela & Storti, Giuseppe, 2017. "A dynamic component model for forecasting high-dimensional realized covariance matrices," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 40-61.
    4. Bauwens, Luc & Otranto, Edoardo, 2020. "Nonlinearities and regimes in conditional correlations with different dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 496-522.
    5. Geert Dhaene & Piet Sercu & Jianbin Wu, 2022. "Volatility spillovers: A sparse multivariate GARCH approach with an application to commodity markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 868-887, May.
    6. de Almeida, Daniel & Hotta, Luiz K. & Ruiz, Esther, 2018. "MGARCH models: Trade-off between feasibility and flexibility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 45-63.
    7. Gian Piero Aielli & Davide Pirino, 2023. "Funding Liquidity and Stocks’ Market Liquidity: Structural Estimation From High-Frequency Data," CEIS Research Paper 568, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 28 Nov 2023.
    8. Shang, Han Lin & Kearney, Fearghal, 2022. "Dynamic functional time-series forecasts of foreign exchange implied volatility surfaces," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1025-1049.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim & Patton, Andrew J. & Quaedvlieg, Rogier, 2020. "Multivariate leverage effects and realized semicovariance GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 411-430.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    multivariate volatility modeling; dynamic conditional correlations (DCC); non-scalar DCC models; constrained optimization; Bregman divergences; Bregman-proximal trust-region method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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