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Debt, recovery rates and the Greek dilemma

In: Financial Regulation and Stability

Author

Listed:
  • Charles A.E. Goodhart
  • M. Udara Peiris
  • Dimitrios P. Tsomocos
Abstract
Most discussions of the Greek debt overhang have focused on the implications for Greece. We show that when additional funds released to the debtor (Greece), via debt restructuring, are used efficiently in pursuit of a practicable business plan, then both debtor and creditor can benefit. We examine a dynamic two country model calibrated to Greek and German economies and support two-steady states, one with endogenous default and one without, depending on creditors’ expectations. In the default steady state, debt forgiveness lowers the volatility of both German and Greek consumption whereas demanding higher recovery rates has the opposite effect. In a second order approximation of the model, conditional welfare analysis shows that a policy of immediate leniency followed by harsher terms as the economy grows is beneficial to both creditors and debtors.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles A.E. Goodhart & M. Udara Peiris & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2019. "Debt, recovery rates and the Greek dilemma," Chapters, in: Financial Regulation and Stability, chapter 13, pages 313-326, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:eechap:18568_13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Peiris, M.U. & Shirobokov, A. & Tsomocos, D.P., 2024. "Does “Lean Against the Wind” monetary policy improve welfare in a commodity exporter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Mikhail Andreev & M. Udara Peiris & Aleksandr Shirobokov & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2019. "Macroprudential Policy and Financial (In)Stability Analysis in the Russian Federation," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(3), pages 3-37, September.
    5. Xuan Wang, 2021. "Bankruptcy Codes and Risk Sharing of Currency Unions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-009/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Xuan Wang, 2020. "A Macro-Financial Perspective to Analyse Maturity Mismatch and Default," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-064/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Paritosh Chandra Sinha, 2021. "Attention to the Election-Economics-Politics (EEP) Nexus in the Indian Stock Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 13(1), pages 7-32, June.

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    Keywords

    Economics and Finance;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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