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The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement

Author

Listed:
  • Mounu Prem

    (School of Economics, Universidad del Rosario)

  • Juan F. Vargas

    (School of Economics, Universidad del Rosario)

  • Daniel Mejía

    (Department of Economics, Universidad de los Andes)

Abstract
Policies based on prohibition and repression to fight the war on drugs have largely failed in a variety of contexts. However, incentive-based policies may also fail and have unintended negative consequences if policymakers do not properly anticipate behavioral reactions. This is an particularly important concern in the case of policies announced prior to their implementation. In this paper, we show that a naive and untimely policy announcement generated an unprecedented escalation in cocaine production in Colombia, offsetting almost 20 years and billions of dollars of U.S.-backed efforts to stop drug production and cartel action.

Suggested Citation

  • Mounu Prem & Juan F. Vargas & Daniel Mejía, 2023. "The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 344-358, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:105:y:2023:i:2:p:344-358
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01059
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    Cited by:

    1. Guerra-Cújar, María Elvira & Prem, Mounu & Rodriguez-Lesmes, Paul & Vargas, Juan F., 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with FARC," SocArXiv c2ypd, Center for Open Science.
    2. Giacomo Battiston & Gianmarco Daniele & Marco Le Moglie & Paolo Pinotti, 2022. "Fueling Organized Crime: The Mexican War on Drugs and Oil Thefts," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0286, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    3. Marín Llanes, Lucas & Fernández Sierra, Manuel & Vélez Lesmes, María Alejandra & Martínez González, Eduard & Murillo Sandoval, Paulo, 2024. "Coca-Based Local Growth and Its Socio-Economic Impact in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 21186, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    4. Lucas Marín Llanes, 2020. "Unintended Consequences of Alternative Development Programs: Evidence From Colombia's Illegal Crop Substitution," Documentos CEDE 18468, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    5. Perilla, Sergio & Prem, Mounu & Purroy, Miguel E. & Vargas, Juan F., 2024. "How peace saves lives: Evidence from Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    6. Nino, Gustavo & Baylis, Kathy & Crost, Benjamin, 2022. "Conflict and Small-scale Investment: Evidence from Colombia Peace Agreement," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322323, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. German Orbegozo, 2021. "Consequences of violence against social leaders in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 19320, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    8. Mora-Garcia, Claudio A & Prem, Mounu & Rodriguez-Lesmes, Paul & Vargas, Juan F., 2024. "Health Workforce Reallocation in the Aftermath of Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo 21124, Universidad del Rosario.
    9. Gelvez, Juan David, 2024. "Coca Politics: Electoral Accountability and Tough-on-Crime Policies in Colombia," OSF Preprints yn9rz, Center for Open Science.
    10. Angulo, Juan Carlos, 2024. "Books and bushes: Schooling decisions and coca production in Colombia," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 344036, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Gelvez, Juan David & Angulo, Juan Carlos, 2024. "Public Attitudes Toward Forced Eradication: Protest, Gender, and Politics in Colombia," OSF Preprints 6ys2g, Center for Open Science.
    12. Ivan D. Lobo & Maria Alejandra Vélez, 2020. "From strong leadership to active community engagement: effective resistance to illicit economies in Afro Colombian collective territories," Documentos CEDE 17908, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation

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