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The changing relationship between unemployment and total fertility

Author

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  • Deniz D. Karaman Örsal
  • Joshua R. Goldstein
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there has been a fundamental change in the relationship between economic conditions and fertility. We use panel data methods to study the short-term changes in total fertility and the unemployment rate in a range of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1957 to 2014. We find that although fertility was counter-cyclical before 1970, with good economic times being associated with lower fertility, since then it has become pro-cyclical, with good economic times being associated with higher fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Deniz D. Karaman Örsal & Joshua R. Goldstein, 2018. "The changing relationship between unemployment and total fertility," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 72(1), pages 109-121, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:1:p:109-121
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1404624
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karen Benjamin Guzzo & Sarah R. Hayford, 2023. "Evolving Fertility Goals and Behaviors in Current U.S. Childbearing Cohorts," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 49(1), pages 7-42, March.
    2. Ermisch, John, 2022. "The Very Temporary Effect of Covid-19 on English Fertility," SocArXiv ufdhk, Center for Open Science.
    3. C. L. Comolli & G. Neyer & G. Andersson & L. Dommermuth & P. Fallesen & M. Jalovaara & A. Klængur Jónsson & M. Kolk & T. Lappegård, 2021. "Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing During and After Recessions in the Nordic Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 473-520, April.
    4. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Dirk Konietzka & Philippe Lambert & Vincent Jerald Ramos, 2023. "Second Birth Fertility in Germany: Social Class, Gender, and the Role of Economic Uncertainty," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-27, December.
    5. Maxim Kan, 2023. "Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-39, December.
    6. Nicholas Campisi & Hill Kulu & Júlia Mikolai & Sebastian Klüsener & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "A spatial perspective on the Nordic fertility decline: the role of economic and social uncertainty in fertility trends," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-036, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    7. Ermisch, John, 2024. "Relationships between Aggregates and Individual Behaviour: The Nature, Direction and Size of Aggregation Bias," SocArXiv 3hrkp, Center for Open Science.

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