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Bivariate asymmetric GARCH models with heavy tails and dynamic conditional correlations

Author

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  • S.T. Boris Choy
  • Cathy W.S. Chen
  • Edward M.H. Lin
Abstract
A bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic model with dynamic conditional correlation and leverage effect (DCC-GJR-GARCH) for modelling financial time series data is considered. For robustness it is helpful to assume a multivariate Student- t distribution for the innovation terms. This paper proposes a new modified multivariate t -distribution which is a robustifying distribution and offers independent marginal Student- t distributions with different degrees of freedom, thereby highlighting the relationship among different assets. A Bayesian approach with adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo methods is used for statistical inference. A simulation experiment illustrates good performance in estimation over reasonable sample sizes. In the empirical studies, the pairwise relationship between the Australian stock market and foreign exchange market, and between the US stock market and crude oil market are investigated, including out-of-sample volatility forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • S.T. Boris Choy & Cathy W.S. Chen & Edward M.H. Lin, 2014. "Bivariate asymmetric GARCH models with heavy tails and dynamic conditional correlations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 1297-1313, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:14:y:2014:i:7:p:1297-1313
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2012.683878
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    2. Cathy W. S. Chen & Hong Than-Thi & Manabu Asai, 2021. "On a Bivariate Hysteretic AR-GARCH Model with Conditional Asymmetry in Correlations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(2), pages 413-433, August.
    3. Thanakorn Nitithumbundit & Jennifer S. K. Chan, 2020. "ECM Algorithm for Auto-Regressive Multivariate Skewed Variance Gamma Model with Unbounded Density," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1169-1191, September.
    4. Nitithumbundit, Thanakorn & Chan, Jennifer S.K., 2022. "Covid-19 impact on Cryptocurrencies market using Multivariate Time Series Models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 365-375.
    5. Do, A. & Powell, R. & Yong, J. & Singh, A., 2020. "Time-varying asymmetric volatility spillover between global markets and China’s A, B and H-shares using EGARCH and DCC-EGARCH models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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