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Real Income Stagnation of Countries 1960-2001

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  • Sanjay Reddy
  • Camelia Minoiu
Abstract
This paper examines the phenomenon of real-income stagnation (in which real-income growth is uninterruptedly negligible or negative for a sizable sequence of years). We analyse data for four decades from a large cross-section of countries. Real income stagnation is a conceptually distinct phenomenon from low average growth and other features of the growth sequence that have been previously considered. We find that real income stagnation has affected a significant number of countries (103 out of 168), and resulted in substantial income loss. Countries that suffered spells of real income stagnation were more likely to be poor, in Latin America or sub-Saharan Africa, conflict ridden and dependent on primary commodity exports. Stagnation is also very likely to persist over time. Countries that were afflicted with stagnation in the 1960s had a likelihood of 75 per cent of also being afflicted with stagnation in the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanjay Reddy & Camelia Minoiu, 2009. "Real Income Stagnation of Countries 1960-2001," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 1-23.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:45:y:2009:i:1:p:1-23
    DOI: 10.1080/00220380802265249
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohamed Ali Trabelsi & Salah Ahmed, 2021. "Economic Resilience in Developing Countries: The Role of Democracy in the Face of External Shocks," Working Papers 1499, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Oct 2021.
    2. Minoiu, Camelia & Reddy, Sanjay G., 2010. "Development aid and economic growth: A positive long-run relation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 27-39, February.
    3. Branko Milanovic, 2012. "Global inequality recalculated and updated: the effect of new PPP estimates on global inequality and 2005 estimates," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 10(1), pages 1-18, March.
    4. Berg, Andrew & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2012. "What makes growth sustained?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 149-166.
    5. Richard Bluhm & Denis de Crombrugghe & Adam Szirmai, 0. "Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines during Economic Slumps," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 810-832.
    6. Isabel Ortiz & Matthew Cummins, 2011. "Global Inequality: Beyond the Bottom Billion – A Rapid Review of Income Distribution in 141 Countries," Working papers 1102, UNICEF,Division of Policy and Strategy.
    7. Milanovic, Branko, 2009. "Global inequality recalculated : the effect of new 2005 PPP estimates on global inequality," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5061, The World Bank.
    8. Ricardo Hausmann & Rodrigo Wagner & Francisco Rodriguez, 2006. "Growth Collapses," CID Working Papers 136, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    9. Park, Donghyun & Eichengreen, Barry & Shin, Kwanho, 2011. "When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for the People's Republic of China," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 262, Asian Development Bank.
    10. Bluhm, Richard & Crombrugghe, Denis de & Szirmai, Adam, 2012. "Explaining the dynamics of stagnation: An empirical examination of the North, Wallis and Weingast approach," MERIT Working Papers 2012-040, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    11. Breuer, Janice Boucher & McDermott, John, 2013. "Economic depression in the world," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 227-242.
    12. Francisco Rodríguez, 2008. "An Empirical Test of the Poverty Traps Hypothesis," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2008-005, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    13. Dabla-Norris, Era & Minoiu, Camelia & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2015. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Macroeconomic Shocks, and Development Aid," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 44-61.
    14. Jomo Kwame Sundaram & Rudiger von Arnim, 2008. "Economic liberalization and constraints to development in sub-Saharan africa," Working Papers 67, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    15. Mr. Chris Papageorgiou & Mr. Andrew Berg & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Nikola Spatafora, 2010. "The End of An Era? the Medium- and Long-Term Effects of the Global Crisison Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/205, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Andersson, Fredrik N. G., 2020. "Macroeconomic Equilibriums, Crises and Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 2020:21, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    17. Francesco Lamperti & Clara Elisabetta Mattei, 2016. "Going Up and Down: Rethinking the Empirics of Growth in the Developing and Newly Industrialized World," LEM Papers Series 2016/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    18. Francesco Lamperti & Clara Elisabetta Mattei, 2018. "Going up and down: rethinking the empirics of growth in the developing and newly industrialized world," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 749-784, September.
    19. Trabelsi, Mohamed Ali & Ahmed, Salah, 2020. "Chocs externes, Institutions démocratiques et Résilience économique [External shocks, democratic institutions and economic resilience]," MPRA Paper 100382, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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