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How stable is the seasonal pattern in cinema admissions? Evidence from the UK

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  • Chris Hand
  • Guy Judge
Abstract
Conventionally, the seasonal pattern in a time series is taken as exogenous. However, two recent studies from the US have suggested, the seasonal component in box office revenue may in part be endogenously determined. Films that are expected to do well tend to be released at times of peak demand. Hence, the seasonal pattern may reflect both the underlying seasonal pattern and the market expansion effect of the films; evidence from the US suggests the former dominates the latter. This article investigates the same issue for the UK using a structural time series model. We find that, although the seasonal pattern varies over time, we are unable to reject the hypothesis that the seasonal factors are constant. This is consistent with findings from the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Hand & Guy Judge, 2011. "How stable is the seasonal pattern in cinema admissions? Evidence from the UK," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 81-85.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:18:y:2011:i:1:p:81-85
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850903425140
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Liran Einav, 2007. "Seasonality in the U.S. motion picture industry," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(1), pages 127-145, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jordi McKenzie, 2023. "The economics of movies (revisited): A survey of recent literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 480-525, April.
    2. Paul Belleflamme & Dimitri Paolini, 2019. "Strategic attractiveness and release decisions for cultural goods," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 198-224, April.
    3. Belleflamme, P. & Paolini, D., 2015. "Strategic Promotion and Release Decisions for Cultural Goods," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2015037, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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