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The Optimal Level of Reserves for Low-Income Countries: Self-Insurance against External Shocks

Author

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  • Regis Barnichon
Abstract
This paper develops an analytical framework that helps to quantify the optimal level of international reserves for a small open economy with limited access to foreign capital and subject to natural disasters or terms-of-trade shocks. International reserves allow the country to relieve balance of payments pressures caused by external shocks and to avoid large fluctuations in imports. The paper calibrates the model to two regions—the Caribbean and the Sahel region in sub-Saharan Africa—and assesses the sensitivity of the results. The conclusion is that popular rules of thumb, such as maintaining reserves equivalent to three months of imports, only give imprecise benchmarks.

Suggested Citation

  • Regis Barnichon, 2009. "The Optimal Level of Reserves for Low-Income Countries: Self-Insurance against External Shocks," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(4), pages 852-875, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:56:y:2009:i:4:p:852-875
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. GBANDI, Tchapo, 2016. "Ratios d’adéquation et fonction de demande des réserves de change dans les pays de l’UEMOA [Title: Foreign reserve adequacy ratios and reserve demand function in WAEMU countries]," MPRA Paper 82145, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Jun 2016.
    3. Khan, Muhammad Tariq Iqbal & Anwar, Sofia, 2022. "Natural disasters and foreign exchange reserves: The role of renewable energy and human capital," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 838-848.
    4. Régis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2020. "A Sufficient Statistics Approach for Macro Policy Evaluation," Working Papers 1171, Barcelona School of Economics.
    5. Zineddine Alla, 2017. "Optimal policies in international macroeconomics [Politiques optimales en macroéconomie internationale]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-03436551, HAL.
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    7. Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & Pavlos Petroulas & George S. Tavlas, 2019. "On the Effects of the ECB’s Funding Policies on Bank Lending and the Demand for the Euro as an International Reserve," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_014, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    8. Régis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2020. "Optimal policy perturbations," Economics Working Papers 1716, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    9. Zineddine Alla, 2017. "Optimal policies in international macroeconomics [Politiques optimales en macroéconomie internationale]," SciencePo Working papers tel-03436551, HAL.
    10. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Jun I Kim & Ms. Kazuko Shirono, 2011. "Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low-Income Countries: A Cost-Benefit Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2011/249, International Monetary Fund.
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