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Do State Revenue Forecasters Utilize Available Information

Author

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  • Gentry, William M.
Abstract
Tests whether state revenue forecasts incorporate all possible economic and political information. Formally defines the concept of rationality and then tests it on time series data on New Jersey's major revenue sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Gentry, William M., 1989. "Do State Revenue Forecasters Utilize Available Information," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 42(4), pages 429-439, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:42:y:1989:i:4:p:429-39
    DOI: 10.1086/NTJ41788812
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1086/NTJ41788812
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, September.
    2. repec:rre:publsh:v:33:y:2003:i:1:p:85-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jalles, João Tovar, 2017. "On the rationality and efficiency of inflation forecasts: Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 175-189.
    4. Vasconcelos de Deus, Joseph David Barroso & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2017. "Fiscal forecasting performance in an emerging economy: An empirical assessment of Brazil," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 408-419.
    5. Zidong An & Joao Tovar Jalles, 2020. "On the performance of US fiscal forecasts: government vs. private information," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(2), pages 367-391, June.
    6. Wagner, Gary A., 2003. "Are state budget stabilization funds only the illusion of savings?: Evidence from stationary panel data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 213-238.
    7. Rossana Merola & Javier J. Pérez, 2012. "Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?," Working Papers 1233, Banco de España.
    8. Niels D. Gilbert & Jasper F.M. Jong, 2017. "Do European fiscal rules induce a bias in fiscal forecasts? Evidence from the Stability and Growth Pact," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-32, January.
    9. Mocan, H. Naci & Azad, Sam, 1995. "Accuracy and rationality of state General Fund Revenue forecasts: Evidence from panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 417-427, September.
    10. Bryan Campbell & Eric Ghysels, 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 553-576, August.
    11. Xisco Oliver Rullán & Joan Rosselló Villalonga, 2018. "The Determinants of Regional Budget Forecast Errors in Federal Economies: Spain 1995-2013," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 226(3), pages 85-121, September.
    12. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Baca, Adriana Cabrera, 2022. "Fiscal opacity and reduction of income inequality through taxation: Effects on economic growth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 69-82.
    13. João Tovar Jalles & Bryn Battersby & Rachel Lee, 2024. "Effectiveness of Fiscal Announcements: Early Evidence from COVID-19," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 623-658, July.
    14. Thomas L. Spreen & Juan P. Martinez Guzman, 2022. "Information sharing and state revenue forecasting performance," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 54-73, December.
    15. Gary Wagner & Russell Sobel, 2006. "State budget stabilization fund adoption: Preparing for the next recession or circumventing fiscal constraints?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 177-199, January.
    16. Krol, Robert, 2013. "Evaluating state revenue forecasting under a flexible loss function," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 282-289.
    17. Niels Gilbert & Jasper de Jong, 2014. "Does the Stability and Growth Pact induce a bias in the EC's fiscal forecasts," DNB Working Papers 451, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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