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Sources of Fluctuations in Islamic, U.S., EU, and Asia Equity Markets: The Roles of Economic Uncertainty, Interest Rates, and Stock Indexes

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  • Shawkat Hammoudeh
  • Won Joong Kim
  • Soodabeh Sarafrazi
Abstract
This article analyzes the economic and financial sources of fluctuations among the U.S. federal funds rates, the U.S. economic policy uncertainty, and the indices of the U.S., European, Asian, and Islamic stock markets. The impulse response analysis shows that the U.S. economic policy uncertainty shocks have significant and negative effects unanimously on the U.S., European, Asian, and Islamic stock markets. A contractionary monetary policy shock, in terms of a higher federal funds rate, has also a statistically significant and negative effect on all of the stock markets. The variance decomposition results indicate that the Islamic stock index is mainly affected by the U.S. stock index shock, thus negating its dichotomy hypothesis. The U.S. economic uncertainty shock explains an important portion of fluctuations for all four stock indices. The degree of synchronization between the EU stock market and other markets has weakened after the U.S. financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Shawkat Hammoudeh & Won Joong Kim & Soodabeh Sarafrazi, 2016. "Sources of Fluctuations in Islamic, U.S., EU, and Asia Equity Markets: The Roles of Economic Uncertainty, Interest Rates, and Stock Indexes," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 1195-1209, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:52:y:2016:i:5:p:1195-1209
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2014.998561
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    Cited by:

    1. Turki Rashed Alshammari & Jean-Noël Ory, 2023. "The Impact of Religious Announcements on Stock Prices and Investment Decisions on the Saudi Stock Exchange," Post-Print hal-04105704, HAL.
    2. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2019. "Islamic and conventional equity markets: Two sides of the same coin, or not?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 191-205.
    3. Jawadi, Fredj & Jawadi, Nabila & Idi Cheffou, Abdoukarim, 2019. "A statistical analysis of uncertainty for conventional and ethical stock indexes," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 9-17.
    4. Khan, Muhammad Asif & Khan, Farhad & Sharif, Arshian & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2023. "Dynamic linkages between Islamic equity indices, oil prices, gold prices, and news-based uncertainty: New insights from partial and multiple wavelet coherence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Ftiti, Zied & Hadhri, Sinda, 2019. "Can economic policy uncertainty, oil prices, and investor sentiment predict Islamic stock returns? A multi-scale perspective," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 40-55.
    6. Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2021. "Commodity futures returns and policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 364-383.
    7. Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Suleman, Muhammed Tahir, 2024. "A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of Islamic and conventional financial markets efficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    8. Wang, Xinyu & Luo, Yi & Wang, Zhuqing & Xu, Yan & Wu, Congxin, 2021. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty on volatility of China’s financial stocks: An empirical analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    9. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2021. "How do Islamic equity markets respond to good and bad volatility of cryptocurrencies? The case of Bitcoin," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    10. Guan, Jialin & Xu, Huijuan & Huo, Da & Hua, Yechun & Wang, Yunfeng, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    11. Hasan, Md. Bokhtiar & Kabir Hassan, M. & Gider, Zeynullah & Tahsin Rafia, Humaira & Rashid, Mamunur, 2023. "Searching hedging instruments against diverse global risks and uncertainties," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. Umar, Zaghum & Mokni, Khaled & Escribano, Ana, 2022. "Connectedness between the COVID-19 related media coverage and Islamic equities: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    13. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2020. "The linkages between oil market uncertainty and Islamic stock markets: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Corruption and equity market performance: International comparative evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    15. Nguyen, Dat Thanh & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Anglingkusumo, Reza & Sasongko, Aryo, 2021. "US government shutdowns and Indonesian stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Bouri, Elie & Gök, Remzi & Gemi̇ci̇, Eray & Kara, Erkan, 2024. "Do geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, and oil implied volatility drive assets across quantiles and time-horizons?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 137-154.
    17. Tang, Wenjin & Ding, Saijie & Chen, Hao, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and its spillover networks: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    18. Audi, Marc & Sadiq, Azhar & Ali, Amjad, 2021. "Performance Evaluation of Islamic and Non-Islamic Equity and Bonds Indices: Evidence from selected Emerging and Developed Countries," MPRA Paper 109866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Jung Park, Yuen & Kutan, Ali M. & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "The impacts of overseas market shocks on the CDS-option basis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 622-636.
    20. Hasan, Md. Bokhtiar & Hassan, M. Kabir & Alhomaidi, Asem, 2023. "How do sectoral Islamic equity markets react to geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, and oil price shocks?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    21. Haddad, Hedi Ben & Mezghani, Imed & Al Dohaiman, Mohammed, 2020. "Common shocks, common transmission mechanisms and time-varying connectedness among Dow Jones Islamic stock market indices and global risk factors," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
    22. Zhang, Weike & Zhang, Xueyuan & Tian, Xiaoli & Sun, Fengwei, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty nexus with corporate risk-taking: The role of state ownership and corruption expenditure," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    23. Zhang, Dayong & Lei, Lei & Ji, Qiang & Kutan, Ali M., 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US and China and their impact on the global markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 47-56.

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