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Macroeconomic Impacts of Export Barriers in a Dynamic CGE Model

Author

Listed:
  • Haqiqi , Iman

    (University of Economic Sciences)

  • Bahalou Horeh , Marziyeh

    (University of Isfahan)

Abstract
A large economic literature discusses the implications of export sanctions for a variety of states around the world. This paper investigates the macro-level consequences of imposing oil export barriers on an oil exporting country. We employ a large real financial computable general equilibrium for Iran. The model is calibrated based on 1999 Social Accounting Matrix for the economy of Iran including 112 commodities and 47 activities. We find that the impact of a 50% negative shock in oil export would amount to a 4.6% reduction in GDP, a 6.8% fall in private consumption, a 20.2% cut in government spending, a 20.4% decrease in import, a 9.9% contraction in capital formation, and a +29.2% increase in non-oil export. We also find that there is a conflict between government benefits and national benefit. Our sensitivity analysis proves the robustness of the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Haqiqi , Iman & Bahalou Horeh , Marziyeh, 2013. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Export Barriers in a Dynamic CGE Model," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 8(3), pages 117-150, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mbr:jmonec:v:8:y:2013:i:3:p:117-150
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Haqiqi, Iman & Yasharel, Sepideh, 2018. "Removing Fossil Fuel Subsidies to Help the Poor," MPRA Paper 95907, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Aghababaei, Mohammad Ebrahim, 2019. "General Equilibrium Resource Elasticity in an Open Resource-Abundant Economy," MPRA Paper 97851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Haqiqi, Iman & Manzoor, Davood, 2012. "Environmental Impacts of Phasing out Energy Subsidies," MPRA Paper 95688, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    4. Haqiqi, Iman & Bahalou, Marziyeh & Hamidi, Razieh, 2014. "Measurement and Evaluation of Equality of Opportunity: A Numerical Look at Education, Health, and Income Inequality," MPRA Paper 95866, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    export barriers; government spending; capital formation; Computable General Equilibrium; Social Accounting Matrix;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E16 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Social Accounting Matrix

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