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Trends in European real exchange rates
[Trade costs]

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Berka
  • Michael B. Devereux
Abstract
We study a newly created panel data set of relative prices for a large number of consumer goods among 31 European countries over a 15-year period. The data set includes eurozone members both before and after the inception of the euro, floating exchange rate countries of Western Europe, and emerging market economies of Eastern and Southern Europe. We find that there is a substantial and continuing deviation from purchasing power parity (PPP) at all levels of aggregation, both for traded and non-traded goods, even among eurozone members. Real exchange rates (RER) exhibit two clear properties in the sample (a) they are closely tied to gross domestic product (GDP) per capita relative to the European average, at all levels of aggregation and for both cross country time series variation; (b) they are highly positively correlated with variation in the relative price of non-traded goods. We then construct a simple two-sector endowment economy model of real exchange rate determination which exhibits these two properties, calibrated to match the data. Simulating the model using the historical relative GDP per capita for each country, we find that for most countries, there is a close fit between the actual and simulated real exchange rate. In terms of policy relevance, the model can offer suggestions of the degree to which real exchange rates in Europe (both in and out of the eurozone) have been overvalued (by approximately 15% in Greece and Portugal and 6% in Italy and Spain).—Martin Berka and Michael B. Devereux

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Berka & Michael B. Devereux, 2013. "Trends in European real exchange rates [Trade costs]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(74), pages 193-242.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecpoli:v:28:y:2013:i:74:p:193-242.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1468-0327.12006
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 71-107, February.
    2. Curran, Michael & Velic, Adnan, 2019. "Real exchange rate persistence and country characteristics: A global analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 35-56.
    3. Martin Berka & Daan Steenkamp, 2018. "Deviations in real exchange rate levels in the OECD countries and their structural determinants," Working Papers 4, New Zealand Centre of Macroeconomics.
    4. Martin Berka & Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2018. "Real Exchange Rates and Sectoral Productivity in the Eurozone," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1543-1581, June.
    5. Claire Giordano, 2021. "How frequent a BEER? Assessing the impact of data frequency on real exchange rate misalignment estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 365-404, July.
    6. Vahagn Galstyan & Adnan Velic, 2018. "Public debt and relative prices in a cross-section of countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(2), pages 229-245, May.
    7. Mario Alberto Lagunes Perez & Hector Hugo Perez Villarreal, 2016. "Exchange Rate And Determinants Of Exports In Periods Of Financial Volatility In The North America Free Trade Agreement Zone,Tipo De Cambio Y Determinantes De Las Exportaciones En Periodos De Volatilid," Revista Internacional Administracion & Finanzas, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 9(2), pages 61-71.
    8. Javier Cravino & Sam Haltenhof, 2020. "Real Exchange Rates, Income per Capita, and Sectoral Input Shares," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 180-194, March.
    9. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2022. "A panel VAR analysis of macro-financial imbalances in the EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    10. Nada Hamadeh & Michel Mouyelo-Katoula & Paulus Konijn & Francette Koechlin, 2017. "Purchasing Power Parities of Currencies and Real Expenditures from the International Comparison Program: Recent Results and Uses," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 23-42, March.
    11. Oscar Afonso & Tiago Sequeira, 2020. "Tradable and nontradable directed technical change," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(36), pages 3874-3897, July.
    12. Andrea Salazar-Díaz & Aarón Levi Garavito-Acosta & Sergio Restrepo Ángel & Leidy Viviana Arcila-Agudelo, 2023. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Colombia: Thousands of VEC Models Approach," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 99, pages 33-78, July-Dece.
    13. Alberto Cavallo & Brent Neiman & Roberto Rigobon, 2014. "Currency Unions, Product Introductions, and the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 529-595.
    14. Javier Cravino, 2017. "Real Exchange Rates, Income per Capita, and Sectoral Input Multipliers," 2017 Meeting Papers 552, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Oscar Afonso & Manuela Magalhães, 2021. "The role of intellectual property rights in a directed technical change model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2142-2176, April.
    16. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2019. "Long‐run determinants and misalignments of the real effective exchange rate in the EU," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 649-672, November.

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