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The Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on International Capital Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Maksim V. Petrov

    (MGIMO University, Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract
he study examines the impact of geopolitical tensions, which have increased sharply in recent times, on international capital flows. It shows that geopolitical tensions affect cross-border investment flows through three main channels: increased geopolitical risks that encourage international investors to reduce investments in countries with different foreign policies; tighter controls on incoming FDI in many countries to ensure national security; and financial sanctions imposed by Western countries to put pressure on other states. Based on the analysis of investment relations between the United States and China, the contradictions between which are the main source of geopolitical tension in the world, the author confirms the conclusion that the influence of geopolitical factors on capital flows between the countries has increased since the second half of the 2010s. However, the study substantiates that the emerging fragmentation of cross-border capital flows can have not only negative, but also positive consequences for the global economy and finance. The compression of capital flows between the countries of the global North and South may push the latter to establish closer integration ties in the financial sector, create financial infrastructure independent of the West, focused on the needs of developing countries, and accelerate the internationalization of their currencies. As a result, these processes could weaken the dominance of Western countries in the global financial system and facilitate its transition to a more equitable multipolar configuration.

Suggested Citation

  • Maksim V. Petrov, 2024. "The Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on International Capital Flows," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 3, pages 8-22, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:240301:p:8-22
    DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2024-3-8-22
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Feng, Chaonan & Han, Liyan & Vigne, Samuel & Xu, Yang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Tryggvi Gudmundsson & Ms. Anna Ilyina & Mr. Alvar Kangur & Tansaya Kunaratskul & Mr. Sergio L. Rodriguez & Mi, 2023. "Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2023/001, International Monetary Fund.
    4. A. S. Bulatov, 2023. "New trends in capital flows in the world and Russia," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 9.
    5. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K. & Wu, Haoran & Xu, Tongbin & Yang, Min, 2024. "Money never sleeps: Capital flows under global risk and uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Ftiti, Zied & Ben Ameur, Hachmi & Louhichi, Wael & Anastasiou, Dimitris & Awijen, Haithem, 2024. "Revisiting capital flow drivers: Regional dynamics, constraints, and geopolitical influences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international capital flows; geopolitical tensions; geopolitical risks; foreign direct investments; portfolio investments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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