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International gross capital flows: New uses of balance of payments data and application to financial crises

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  • Janus, Thorsten
  • Riera-Crichton, Daniel
Abstract
Most studies of international financial openness and crises link economic performance to either the net inflow of capital or the gross inflow (outflow) defined as the change in foreign (domestic) holdings of domestic (foreign) assets over a period. In this paper we decompose the net inflow into four rather than two components. We show that the four-way decomposition provides a better understanding of six recent financial crises and predicts sudden stops better than a standard two-way decomposition. We conclude that four-way decompositions can be more informative than either the net capital inflow or two-way decompositions of the net inflow.

Suggested Citation

  • Janus, Thorsten & Riera-Crichton, Daniel, 2013. "International gross capital flows: New uses of balance of payments data and application to financial crises," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 16-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:1:p:16-28
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.09.003
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    2. Levan Efremidze & Sungsoo Kim & Ozan Sula & Thomas D. Willett, 2017. "The relationships among capital flow surges, reversals and sudden stops," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(4), pages 393-413, November.
    3. Masyita Crystallin & Levan Efremidze & Sungsoo Kim & Wahyu Nugroho & Ozan Sula & Thomas Willett, 2015. "How Common are Capital Flows Surges? How They are Measured Matters -a Lot," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 663-682, September.
    4. Orlando, Beatrice & Tortora, Debora & Pezzi, Alberto & Bitbol-Saba, Nathalie, 2022. "The disruption of the international supply chain: Firm resilience and knowledge preparedness to tackle the COVID-19 outbreak," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(1).
    5. M Belén Salas & David Alaminos & Manuel Angel Fernández & Francisco López-Valverde, 2020. "A global prediction model for sudden stops of capital flows using decision trees," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(2), pages 1-22, February.
    6. Piotr Adamczyk & Mateusz Pipień, 2022. "On the Role of Portfolio Indicators of the Capital Flows in the Convergence Processes – An Application of Systems of Regression Equations in the Case of Selected CEE Countries," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 14(3), pages 303-333, September.
    7. Thorsten Janus & Daniel Riera-Crichton, 2016. "Banking crises, external crises and gross capital flows," Globalization Institute Working Papers 273, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. An, Hui & Wang, Hao & Delpachitra, Sarath & Cottrell, Simon & Yu, Xiao, 2022. "Early warning system for risk of external liquidity shock in BRICS countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
    9. Fernando Arias & David Delgado & Daniel Parra & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2016. "Gross Capital Flows and their long-term Determinants for Developing Economies: A Panel Co-integration Approach," Borradores de Economia 932, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2016. "Quantitative easing and the post-crisis surge in financial flows to developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 331-357.
    11. Adugna Olani, 2016. "Dynamic Capital Inflow Transmission Of Monetary Policy To Emerging Markets," Working Paper 1358, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    12. Lopez, Claude & Adams-Kane, Jonathon & Wilhelmus, Jakob, 2016. "Cross-Border Investment in Europe: From Macro to Financial Data," MPRA Paper 76622, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Hodula, Martin & Janků, Jan & Malovaná, Simona & Ngo, Ngoc Anh, 2024. "Geopolitical risks and their impact on global macro-financial stability: Literature and measurements," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2024, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
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    15. Inbin Hwang & Deokjong Jeong & Hyungsoon Park & Sunyoung Park, 2017. "Which Net Capital Flows Matter?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 289-305, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Financial integration; External crises; Balance of payments crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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