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Geographical variation in project cost performance: the Netherlands versus worldwide

Author

Listed:
  • Cantarelli, C.C.
  • Flyvbjerg, B.
  • Buhl, S.L.
Abstract
Cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects know no geographical limits; overruns are a global phenomenon. Nevertheless, the size of cost overruns varies with location. In the Netherlands, cost overruns appear to be smaller compared to the rest of the world. This paper tests whether Dutch projects perform significantly better in terms of cost overruns than other geographical areas. It is concluded that for road and tunnel projects, the Netherlands performs similarly to the rest of the world. For rail projects, Dutch projects perform considerably better, with projects having significantly lower percentage cost overruns in real terms (11%) compared to projects in other North West European countries (27%) and in other geographical areas (44%). Bridge projects also have considerably smaller cost overruns – 7% in the Netherlands compared with 45% in other NW European countries and 27% in other geographical areas. In explaining cost overruns, geography should therefore clearly be taken into consideration.

Suggested Citation

  • Cantarelli, C.C. & Flyvbjerg, B. & Buhl, S.L., 2012. "Geographical variation in project cost performance: the Netherlands versus worldwide," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 324-331.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:24:y:2012:i:c:p:324-331
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2012.03.014
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    1. Bent Flyvbjerg & Mette K. Skamris holm & Søren L. Buhl, 2003. "How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects?," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 71-88, January.
    2. Bent Flyvbjerg, 2007. "Policy and Planning for Large-Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 34(4), pages 578-597, August.
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    4. Odeck, James, 2004. "Cost overruns in road construction--what are their sizes and determinants?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 43-53, January.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Rothengatter, Werner, 2019. "Megaprojects in transportation networks," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-15.
    3. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Bester, Dirk W., 2021. "The Cost-Benefit Fallacy: Why Cost-Benefit Analysis Is Broken and How to Fix It," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 395-419, October.
    4. Cavalieri, Marina & Cristaudo, Rossana & Guccio, Calogero, 2019. "On the magnitude of cost overruns throughout the project life-cycle: An assessment for the Italian transport infrastructure projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 21-36.
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    6. Saule Baurzhan & Glenn Jenkins & Godwin O. Olasehinde-Williams, 2021. "The Economic Performance of Hydropower Dams Supported by the World Bank Group, 1975–2015," Working Paper 1463, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    7. Molinari, Laura & Haezendonck, Elvira & Mabillard, Vincent, 2023. "Cost overruns of Belgian transport infrastructure projects: Analyzing variations over three land transport modes and two project phases," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 167-179.
    8. Miranda Sarmento, J.J. & Renneboog, Luc, 2017. "Cost overruns in public sector investment projects," Other publications TiSEM 51799a3e-4c78-4dbd-b330-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Gabriela Dufková, 2022. "Time and Budget Overruns on Czech International Development Projects," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(7-8), pages 622-645, July.
    10. Francisco Pinheiro Catalão & Carlos Oliveira Cruz & Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, 2023. "The entanglement of time and cost deviations in public projects," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(1), pages 241-272, March.
    11. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Ansar, Atif & Budzier, Alexander & Buhl, Søren & Cantarelli, Chantal & Garbuio, Massimo & Glenting, Carsten & Holm, Mette Skamris & Lovallo, Dan & Lunn, Daniel & Molin, Eric & Rønnes, 2018. "Five things you should know about cost overrun," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 174-190.
    12. Dejan Makovšek & Marian Moszoro, 2018. "Risk pricing inefficiency in public–private partnerships," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 298-321, May.
    13. Verweij, Stefan & van Meerkerk, Ingmar & Korthagen, Iris A., 2015. "Reasons for contract changes in implementing Dutch transportation infrastructure projects: An empirical exploration," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 195-202.
    14. Love, Peter E.D. & Zhou, Jingyang & Edwards, David J. & Irani, Zahir & Sing, Chun-Pong, 2017. "Off the rails: The cost performance of infrastructure rail projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 14-29.
    15. Chong, Uven & Hopkins, Omar, 2016. "An international experience on the evolution of road costs during the project life cycle," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 60-66.
    16. Love, Peter E.D. & Sing, Michael C.P. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Newton, Sidney, 2019. "The cost performance of transportation projects: The fallacy of the Planning Fallacy account," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-20.
    17. Wasiu Olayinka FAWOLE & Burhan ÖZKAN, 2017. "Identifying the Drivers of Food Security Based on Perception among Households in South Western Nigeria," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 3, ejis_v3_i.
    18. Locatelli, Giorgio & Invernizzi, Diletta Colette & Brookes, Naomi J., 2017. "Project characteristics and performance in Europe: An empirical analysis for large transport infrastructure projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 108-122.
    19. Servranckx, Tom & Vanhoucke, Mario & Aouam, Tarik, 2021. "Practical application of reference class forecasting for cost and time estimations: Identifying the properties of similarity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(3), pages 1161-1179.
    20. Makovšek, Dejan, 2014. "Systematic construction risk, cost estimation mechanism and unit price movements," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 135-145.
    21. Miranda Sarmento, J.J., 2014. "Public private partnerships," Other publications TiSEM c7d4c978-234c-4f88-83ed-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    22. Love, Peter E.D. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D. & Irani, Zahir, 2016. "Cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects: Sowing the seeds for a probabilistic theory of causation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 184-194.
    23. Atif Ansar & Bent Flyvbjerg & Alexander Budzier & Daniel Lunn, 2016. "Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 32(3), pages 360-390.
    24. Love, Peter E.D. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D., 2018. "Debunking fake news in a post-truth era: The plausible untruths of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 357-368.
    25. Steininger, Bertram & Groth, Martin & Weber, Birgitte, 2020. "Cost overruns and delays in infrastructure projects: the case of Stuttgart 21," Working Paper Series 20/11, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.

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