Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/juecon/v90y2015icp79-89.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do natural disasters cause an excessive fear of heights? Evidence from the Wenchuan earthquake

Author

Listed:
  • Deng, Guoying
  • Gan, Li
  • Hernandez, Manuel A.
Abstract
This paper uses the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China to examine if the occurrence of a natural disaster can cause an excessive fear of living in upper floors. We rely on potential variations in earthquake risk perceptions by floor level to assess whether the pricing of apartments in lower versus upper floors is consistent with a disproportionate fear of heights. We use a unique transaction dataset for new apartment units in the affected area. We find that the relative price of low to high floor units, particularly units located in the first and second floor, considerably increased for several months after the earthquake and then returned back to the levels observed prior to the tremor. This temporal increase in relative prices is in line with a higher risk perception and fear, triggered after the earthquake, of living in upper floors, which gradually dissipated over time. The results are robust to alternative model estimations.

Suggested Citation

  • Deng, Guoying & Gan, Li & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2015. "Do natural disasters cause an excessive fear of heights? Evidence from the Wenchuan earthquake," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 79-89.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:90:y:2015:i:c:p:79-89
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2015.10.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119015000662
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jue.2015.10.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust data-driven inference in the regression-discontinuity design," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 14(4), pages 909-946, December.
    2. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    3. Nakagawa, Masayuki & Saito, Makoto & Yamaga, Hisaki, 2007. "Earthquake risk and housing rents: Evidence from the Tokyo Metropolitan Area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 87-99, January.
    4. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    5. Wong, Grace, 2008. "Has SARS infected the property market Evidence from Hong Kong," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 74-95, January.
    6. James C. Murdoch & Harinder Singh & Mark Thayer, 1993. "The Impact of Natural Hazards on Housing Values: The Loma Prieta Earthquake," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 167-184, June.
    7. Lisa Cameron & Manisha Shah, 2015. "Risk-Taking Behavior in the Wake of Natural Disasters," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 484-515.
    8. Kurt J. Beron & James C. Murdoch & Mark A. Thayer & Wim P. M. Vijverberg, 1997. "An Analysis of the Housing Market before and after the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 73(1), pages 101-113.
    9. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocío Titiunik, 2015. "Optimal Data-Driven Regression Discontinuity Plots," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(512), pages 1753-1769, December.
    10. Benson, Earl D & Hansen, Julia L. & Schwartz Jr., Arthur & Smersh, Greg T., 1998. "Pricing Residential Amenities: The Value of a View," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 55-73, January.
    11. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. "How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-1191, September.
    12. Glaeser, Edward L & Gyourko, Joseph & Saks, Raven, 2005. "Why Is Manhattan So Expensive? Regulation and the Rise in Housing Prices," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 331-369, October.
    13. Brookshire, David S & Thayer. Mark A & Tschirhart, John & Schulze, William D, 1985. "A Test of the Expected Utility Model: Evidence from Earthquake Risks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 369-389, April.
    14. Ederington, Louis H. & Lee, Jae Ha, 1995. "The Short-Run Dynamics of the Price Adjustment to New Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 117-134, March.
    15. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Okmyung Biny & Stephen Polasky, 2004. "Effects of Flood Hazards on Property Values: Evidence Before and After Hurricane Floyd," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 80(4).
    17. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    18. Guo, Xiaoyang & Zheng, Siqi & Geltner, David & Liu, Hongyu, 2014. "A new approach for constructing home price indices: The pseudo repeat sales model and its application in China," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 20-38.
    19. Masayuki Nakagawa & Makoto Saito & Hisaki Yamaga, 2009. "Earthquake Risks And Land Prices: Evidence From The Tokyo Metropolitan Area," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 60(2), pages 208-222, June.
    20. Raymond M. Brooks & Ajay Patel & Tie Su, 2003. "How the Equity Market Responds to Unanticipated Events," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(1), pages 109-134, January.
    21. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    22. Abadie, Alberto & Dermisi, Sofia, 2008. "Is terrorism eroding agglomeration economies in Central Business Districts? Lessons from the office real estate market in downtown Chicago," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 451-463, September.
    23. Viscusi, W Kip, 1989. "Prospective Reference Theory: Toward an Explanation of the Paradoxes," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 235-263, September.
    24. Edward L. Glaeser, 2004. "Psychology and the Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 408-413, May.
    25. Viscusi, W Kip, 1990. "Sources of Inconsistency in Societal Responses to Health Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 257-261, May.
    26. Lucas W. Davis, 2004. "The Effect of Health Risk on Housing Values: Evidence from a Cancer Cluster," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1693-1704, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Olga Filippova & Cuong Nguyen & Ilan Noy & Michael Rehm, 2020. "Who Cares? Future Sea Level Rise and House Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 96(2), pages 207-224.
    2. Wang, Bingbing, 2022. "Housing market volatility under COVID-19: Diverging response of demand in luxury and low-end housing markets," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Alessio D’Amato & Giovanni Marin & Andrea Rampa, 2019. "Environmental Disasters and Electoral Cycle: An Empirical Analysis on Floods and Landslides in Italy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(2), pages 625-651, October.
    4. Shian Zeng & Chengdong Yi, 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the housing market at the epicenter of the outbreak in China," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(6), pages 1-20, June.
    5. Zhu, Hongjia & Deng, Yongheng & Zhu, Rong & He, Xiaobo, 2016. "Fear of nuclear power? Evidence from Fukushima nuclear accident and land markets in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 139-154.
    6. Marco Modica & Roberto Zoboli & Fabrizio Meroni & Vera Pessina & Thea Squarcina & Mario Locati, 2021. "‘Near miss’ housing market response to the 2012 northern Italy earthquake: The role of housing quality and risk perception," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(11), pages 2293-2309, August.
    7. Qian, Xianhang & Qiu, Shanyun & Zhang, Guangli, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on housing price: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    8. Nicolò Barbieri & Massimiliano Mazzanti & Anna Montini & Andrea Rampa, 2022. "Risk Attitudes to Catastrophic Events: VSL and WTP for Insurance Against Earthquakes," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 317-337, July.
    9. Yaoxuan Huang & Tsz Leung Yip & Cong Liang, 2020. "Risk Perception and Property Value: Evidence from Tianjin Port Explosion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, February.
    10. Olga Filippova & Cuong Nguyen & Ilan Noy & Michael Rehm, 2020. "Who Cares? Future Sea Level Rise and House Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 96(2), pages 207-224.
    11. aus dem Moore, Nils & Brehm, Johannes & Breidenbach, Philipp & Ghosh, Arijit & Gruhl, Henri, 2022. "Flood risk perception after indirect flooding experience: Null results in the German housing market," Ruhr Economic Papers 976, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Hao, Shiming, 2021. "True structure change, spurious treatment effect? A novel approach to disentangle treatment effects from structure changes," MPRA Paper 108679, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Steve Gibbons & Stephan Heblich & Esther Lho & Christopher Timmins, 2016. "Fear of Fracking? The Impact of the Shale Gas Exploration on House Prices in Britain," SERC Discussion Papers 0207, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Wen‐Chi Liao & Yilan Luo & Yajie Sun, 2022. "Information shock of disaster and hazard: Impact of Kaohsiung gas explosions and risk disclosure on the equalizing difference in the housing market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(6), pages 1492-1531, November.
    15. Lian, Ying & Liu, Yijun & Dong, Xuefan, 2020. "Strategies for controlling false online information during natural disasters: The case of Typhoon Mangkhut in China," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    16. Jiajia Li & Liuyuan Liao & Xiaowen Dai, 2022. "Economic and Agricultural Impacts of Building a Dam—Evidence from Natural Experience of the Three-Gorges Dam," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-20, September.
    17. Marco Modica & Roberto Zoboli & Fabrizio Meroni & Vera Pessina & Thea Squarcina & Mario Locati, 2016. "Housing Market Response to 2012 Northern Italy Earthquake: The role of house quality and changing risk perception," SEEDS Working Papers 0416, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Apr 2016.
    18. Jie Wang & Biyu Peng & Xiaohua Xia & Zhu Ma, 2021. "Are Housing Prices Sustainable in 35 Large and Medium-Sized Chinese Cities? A Study Based on the Cheap Talk Game and Dynamic GMM," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guoying Deng & Li Gan & Manuel A. Hernandez, 2013. "Do People Overreact? Evidence from the Housing Market After the Wenchuan Earthquake," NBER Working Papers 19515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Zhu, Hongjia & Deng, Yongheng & Zhu, Rong & He, Xiaobo, 2016. "Fear of nuclear power? Evidence from Fukushima nuclear accident and land markets in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 139-154.
    3. Masako Ikefuji & Roger J. A. Laeven & Jan R. Magnus & Yuan Yue, 2022. "Earthquake Risk Embedded in Property Prices: Evidence From Five Japanese Cities," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 117(537), pages 82-93, January.
    4. Greg Barron & Eldad Yechiam, 2009. "The coexistence of overestimation and underweighting of rare events and the contingent recency effect," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 4(6), pages 447-460, October.
    5. Naoi, Michio & Seko, Miki & Sumita, Kazuto, 2009. "Earthquake risk and housing prices in Japan: Evidence before and after massive earthquakes," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 658-669, November.
    6. Thomas Schuster, 2003. "News Events and Price Movements. Price Effects of Economic and Non-Economic Publications in the News Media," Finance 0305009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. repec:cup:judgdm:v:4:y:2009:i:6:p:447-460 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ti-Ching Peng, 2021. "The effect of hazard shock and disclosure information on property and land prices: a machine-learning assessment in the case of Japan," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 41(1), pages 1-32, February.
    9. Singh, Ruchi, 2019. "Seismic risk and house prices: Evidence from earthquake fault zoning," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 187-209.
    10. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2016. "Overreaction to policy changes in the housing market: Evidence from Shanghai," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 26-41.
    11. Huang, Yi, 2021. "Salience of hazard disclosure and house prices: Evidence from Christchurch, New Zealand," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    12. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.
    13. Thomas Holtfort, 2019. "From standard to evolutionary finance: a literature survey," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 207-232, June.
    14. Weber, Martin & Welfens, Frank, 2007. "How do markets react to fundamental shocks? : An experimental analysis on underreaction and momentum," Papers 07-42, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    15. Gary Charness & Uri Gneezy, 2010. "Portfolio Choice And Risk Attitudes: An Experiment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(1), pages 133-146, January.
    16. Wong, Grace, 2008. "Has SARS infected the property market Evidence from Hong Kong," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 74-95, January.
    17. Kenta Tanaka & Shunsuke Managi, 2016. "Impact Of A Disaster On Land Price: Evidence From Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(01), pages 1-15, March.
    18. Hallstrom, Daniel G. & Smith, V. Kerry, 2005. "Market responses to hurricanes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 541-561, November.
    19. Lovric, M. & Kaymak, U. & Spronk, J., 2008. "A Conceptual Model of Investor Behavior," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-030-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    20. de Koning, Koen & Filatova, Tatiana & Bin, Okmyung, 2017. "Bridging the Gap Between Revealed and Stated Preferences in Flood-prone Housing Markets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1-13.
    21. Mizuki Kawabata & Michio Naoi & Shohei Yasuda, 2022. "Earthquake risk reduction and residential land prices in Tokyo," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fear of heights; Earthquake risks; Housing market; Wenchuan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:90:y:2015:i:c:p:79-89. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622905 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.