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Currency crises with the threat of an interest rate defence

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  • Daniëls, Tijmen R.
  • Jager, Henk
  • Klaassen, Franc
Abstract
While virtually all currency crisis models recognise that the decision to abandon a peg depends on how tenaciously policy makers defend it, this is seldom modelled explicitly. We add the threat of an interest rate defence to the global game model of Morris and Shin (American Economic Review 88, 1998). With an endogenous defence, actions of speculators may become strategic substitutes instead of the usual complements. Nevertheless, our generalised model remains tractable and has a unique threshold equilibrium. It provides additional insights. For instance, the threat of an interest rate defence makes speculation riskier and this may be sufficient to keep speculators out when fundamentals are still relatively strong.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniëls, Tijmen R. & Jager, Henk & Klaassen, Franc, 2011. "Currency crises with the threat of an interest rate defence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 14-24, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:85:y:2011:i:1:p:14-24
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    Cited by:

    1. Bauer, Christian & Ernstberger, Philip, 2014. "The Dynamics of Currency Crises - Results from Intertemporal Optimization and Viscosity Solutions," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100300, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Nicolás Oviedo, 2022. "Deficit fiscal y tipo de cambio fijo: racionalizando una combinación insostenible," Young Researchers Working Papers 3, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Oct 2022.
    3. Daniëls, Tijmen R. & Dönges, Jutta & Heinemann, Frank, 2013. "Crossing network versus dealer market: Unique equilibrium in the allocation of order flow," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 41-57.
    4. Erler, Alexander & Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard, 2015. "To intervene, or not to intervene: Monetary policy and the costs of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 432-456.
    5. Jon Frost, 2015. "A theory of bazookas; or, "when (and when not) to use large-scale official sector support"," DNB Working Papers 479, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    6. Mahdi Yazdani & Mohammad Nikzad, 2021. "Output Losses from Currency Crises and the Role of Central Bank," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(3), pages 79-97.
    7. Erler, Alexander & Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard, 2014. "Defending against speculative attacks – It is risky, but it can pay off," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 309-330.
    8. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-007 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Franc Klaassen & Kostas Mavromatis, 2016. "Interest Rate Rules, Exchange Market Pressure, and Successful Exchange Rate Management," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-034/VI, Tinbergen Institute.

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