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Trade-induced displacements and local labor market adjustments in the U.S

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  • Kondo, Illenin O.
Abstract
Administrative data from the U.S. Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program reveal that, across locations, one extra TAA trade-displaced worker is associated with the overall employment falling by about two workers amidst muted geographic mobility. This correlation is robust to local import penetration proxies and is corroborated using differences in the exposure of commuting zones to the plausibly exogenous normalization of U.S. trade relations with China in 2000. A Ricardian trade model with endogenous variable markups arising from head-to-head foreign competition can rationalize such a correlation. Following a trade liberalization shock, employment and earnings collapse in the less productive locations since they endogenously exhibit both higher trade-induced job losses and lower job creation, as in the data. When migration is muted in response to the trade shock, inequality increases across locations and induces transitional transfers towards decaying locations, even as employment and welfare rise in the aggregate.

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  • Kondo, Illenin O., 2018. "Trade-induced displacements and local labor market adjustments in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 180-202.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:114:y:2018:i:c:p:180-202
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.05.004
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    3. Dix-Carneiro, Rafael & Kovak, Brian K., 2019. "Margins of labor market adjustment to trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 125-142.
    4. Daniel Carroll & Sewon Hur, 2023. "On The Distributional Effects Of International Tariffs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1311-1346, November.
    5. Dorn, David & Levell, Peter, 2021. "Trade and Inequality in Europe and the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 16780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Endoh, Masahiro, 2023. "The China shock and job reallocation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Justin Barnette & Jooyoun Park, 2021. "Skill Overshooting in Job Training With the Trade Adjustment Assistance Program," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 35(2), pages 141-156, May.
    8. Barnette, Justin & Park, Jooyoun, 2019. "Skill and Wage Overshooting in Occupational Training with the Trade Adjustment Assistance Program," MPRA Paper 93412, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign competition; Import penetration; Trade adjustment; TAA; Reallocation; Variable markups; Unemployment; Inequality; China shock; Trade-induced displacements;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor

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