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Consumption growth predictability and asset prices

Author

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  • Roh, Tai-Yong
  • Lee, Changjun
  • Min, Byoung-Kyu
Abstract
We derive and test a consumption-based intertemporal asset pricing model in which an asset earns a risk premium if it performs poorly when expected future consumption growth deteriorates. The predictability of consumption growth combined with the recursive preference delivers news about future consumption growth an additional risk factor, in addition to news about current consumption growth. We model the consumption growth dynamics using a vector autoregressive (VAR) structure with a set of instrumental variables commonly used for forecasting future economic growth. Our VAR estimation provides strong empirical support for future consumption growth predictability. The cross-sectional test shows that the model explains reasonably well the dispersion in average excess returns of 25 portfolios sorted on size and book-to-market, as well as 25 portfolios sorted on size and long-term return reversal. Growth stocks and long-term winners underperform value stocks and long-term losers, respectively, because growth stocks and long-term winners hedge adverse changes in the future consumption growth opportunities.

Suggested Citation

  • Roh, Tai-Yong & Lee, Changjun & Min, Byoung-Kyu, 2019. "Consumption growth predictability and asset prices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 95-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:51:y:2019:i:c:p:95-118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2019.02.001
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    2. Rojo-Suárez, Javier & Alonso-Conde, Ana B. & Lago-Balsalobre, Rubén, 2024. "Industry bubbles and unexpected consumption shocks: A cross-sectional explanation of stock returns under recursive preferences," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1156-1169.
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    4. Lago-Balsalobre, Rubén & Rojo-Suárez, Javier & Alonso-Conde, Ana B., 2023. "Cross-sectional implications of dynamic asset pricing with stochastic volatility and ambiguity aversion," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption-based asset pricing model; Consumption growth predictability; Recursive preference; Value premium; Long-term return reversal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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