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Testing for bubbles in housing markets: some evidence for Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Cássio da Nóbrega Besarria
  • Nelson Leitão Paes
  • Marcelo Eduardo Alves Silva
Abstract
Purpose - Housing prices in Brazil have displayed an impressive growth in recent years, raising some concerns about the existence of a bubble in housing markets. In this paper, the authors implement an empirical methodology to identify whether or not there is a bubble in housing markets in Brazil. Design/methodology/approach - Based on a theoretical model that establish that, in the absence of a bubble, a long-run equilibrium relationship should be observed between the market price of an asset and its dividends. The authors implement two methodologies. First, the authors assess whether there is a cointegration relationship between housing prices and housing rental prices. Second, the authors test whether the price-to-rent ratio is stationary. Findings - The authors’ results show that there is evidence of a bubble in housing prices in Brazil. However, given the short span of the data, the authors perform a Monte Carlo simulation and show that the cointegration tests may be biased in small samples. Therefore, the authors should be caution when assessing the results. Research limitations/implications - The results obtained from the cointegration analysis can be biased for small samples. Practical implications - The information on the excessive increase of the prices of the properties in relation to their fundamental value can help in the decision-making on investment of the economic agents. Social implications - These results corroborate the hypothesis that Brazil has an excessive appreciation in housing prices, and, as Silva and Besarria (2018) have suggested, this behavior explains, in part, the fact that the central bank has taken this issue into account when deciding about the stance of monetary policy of Brazil. Originality/value - The originality is linked to the use of the Gregory-Hansen method of cointegration in the identification of bubbles and discussion of the limitations of the research through Monte Carlo simulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Cássio da Nóbrega Besarria & Nelson Leitão Paes & Marcelo Eduardo Alves Silva, 2018. "Testing for bubbles in housing markets: some evidence for Brazil," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(5), pages 754-770, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:ijhmap:ijhma-08-2017-0075
    DOI: 10.1108/IJHMA-08-2017-0075
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tsangyao Chang & Chi-Chen Chiu & Chien-Chung Nieh, 2007. "Rational bubbles in the US stock market? Further evidence from a nonparametric cointegration test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 517-521.
    2. Itamar Caspi, 2015. "Testing for a Housing Bubble at the National and Regional Level: The Case of Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2015.05, Bank of Israel.
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    6. Yener Coskun & Unal Seven & H. Murat Ertugrul & Ali Alp, 2020. "Housing price dynamics and bubble risk: the case of Turkey," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 50-86, January.
    7. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    8. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
    9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Riza Emekter & Thuy Bui, 2023. "Non-linear structures, chaos, and bubbles in U.S. regional housing markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(1), pages 63-93, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing; Housing prices; Brazil; Housing market analysis; Monte Carlo simulation; Rational bubbles; Linear cointegration; C00; G12; R20;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General

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