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Risk Prediction and Assessment: Duration, Infections, and Death Toll of the COVID-19 and Its Impact on China’s Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Xiao-Guang Yue

    (Department of Computer Science and Engineering, School of Sciences, European University Cyprus, Nicosia 1516, Cyprus
    Center for Research and Innovation in Business Sciences and Information Systems, Polytechnic Institute of Porto, 4610-156 Felgueiras, Portugal
    Rattanakosin International College of Creative Entrepreneurship, Rajamangala University of Technology Rattanakosin, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand)

  • Xue-Feng Shao

    (Discipline of International Business, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia)

  • Rita Yi Man Li

    (Department of Economics and Finance, HKSYU Real Estate and Economics Research Lab, Sustainable Real Estate Research Center, Hong Kong Shue Yan University, Hong Kong 999077, China)

  • M. James C. Crabbe

    (Wolfson College, Oxford University, Oxford OX2 6UD, UK
    Institute of Biomedical and Environmental Science and Technology, University of Bedfordshire, Luton LU1 3JU, UK
    School of Life Science, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China)

  • Lili Mi

    (Department of Business Strategy and Innovation, Griffith Business School, Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD 4111, Australia)

  • Siyan Hu

    (International Engineering and Technology Institute, Hong Kong 999077, China)

  • Julien S Baker

    (Centre for Health and Exercise Science Research, Department of Sport, Physical Education and Health, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong 999077, China)

  • Liting Liu

    (Department of Soil Science, University of Saskatchewan, 51 Campus Drive, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5A8, Canada)

  • Kechen Dong

    (Adelaide Business School, the University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia)

Abstract
This study first analyzes the national and global infection status of the Coronavirus Disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19). It then uses the trend comparison method to predict the inflection point and Key Point of the COVID-19 virus by comparison with the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) graphs, followed by using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, Autoregressive Moving Average model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors, and Holt Winter’s Exponential Smoothing to predict infections, deaths, and GDP in China. Finally, it discusses and assesses the impact of these results. This study argues that even if the risks and impacts of the epidemic are significant, China’s economy will continue to maintain steady development.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao-Guang Yue & Xue-Feng Shao & Rita Yi Man Li & M. James C. Crabbe & Lili Mi & Siyan Hu & Julien S Baker & Liting Liu & Kechen Dong, 2020. "Risk Prediction and Assessment: Duration, Infections, and Death Toll of the COVID-19 and Its Impact on China’s Economy," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-26, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:13:y:2020:i:4:p:66-:d:341043
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Han He & Sicheng Li & Lin Hu & Nelson Duarte & Otilia Manta & Xiao-Guang Yue, 2019. "Risk Factor Identification of Sustainable Guarantee Network Based on Logistic Regression Algorithm," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-19, June.
    2. Jimmy Boon Som Ong & Mark I-Cheng Chen & Alex R Cook & Huey Chyi Lee & Vernon J Lee & Raymond Tzer Pin Lin & Paul Ananth Tambyah & Lee Gan Goh, 2010. "Real-Time Epidemic Monitoring and Forecasting of H1N1-2009 Using Influenza-Like Illness from General Practice and Family Doctor Clinics in Singapore," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(4), pages 1-11, April.
    3. Wei Liu & Xiao-Guang Yue & Paul B. Tchounwou, 2020. "Response to the COVID-19 Epidemic: The Chinese Experience and Implications for Other Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-6, March.
    4. Chuanyi Wang & Zhe Cheng & Xiao-Guang Yue & Michael McAleer, 2020. "Risk Management of COVID-19 by Universities in China," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-6, February.
    5. Lili Mi & Xiao-Guang Yue & Xue-Feng Shao & Yuanfei Kang & Yulong Liu, 2020. "Strategic Asset Seeking and Innovation Performance: The Role of Innovation Capabilities and Host Country Institutions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, March.
    6. Xiao-Guang Yue & Xue-Feng Shao & Rita Yi Man Li & M. James C. Crabbe & Lili Mi & Siyan Hu & Julien S. Baker & Gang Liang, 2020. "Risk Management Analysis for Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-6, February.
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    Cited by:

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    5. Stéphane Goutte & Thomas Péran & Thomas Porcher, 2020. "Social Inequalities and Vulnerability of population facing the COVID-19: the case of Seine-Saint-Denis in Ile-de-France," Working Papers halshs-02613278, HAL.
    6. Christian M. Hafner, 2020. "The Spread of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Time and Space," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-13, May.
    7. Jingxuan Liu & Ping Qiao & Jian Ding & Luke Hankinson & Elodie H. Harriman & Edward M. Schiller & Ieva Ramanauskaite & Haowei Zhang, 2020. "Will the Aviation Industry Have a Bright Future after the COVID-19 Outbreak? Evidence from Chinese Airport Shipping Sector," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, November.
    8. Monika Małgorzata Wojcieszak-Zbierska & Anna Jęczmyk & Jan Zawadka & Jarosław Uglis, 2020. "Agritourism in the Era of the Coronavirus (COVID-19): A Rapid Assessment from Poland," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-19, September.
    9. Xin Chen & Zhangming Shan & Decai Tang & Biao Zhou & Valentina Boamah, 2023. "Interest rate risk of Chinese commercial banks based on the GARCH-EVT model," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
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