Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/popdev/v27y2001i2p239-257.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Much Will Feeding More and Wealthier People Encroach on Forests?

Author

Listed:
  • Paul E. Waggoner
  • Jesse H. Ausubel
Abstract
Forests have recently expanded in many countries. The success of the world, including both rich and poor, in following this trend depends on future changes in population, income per capita, appetite, and crop yields. Extended to the year 2050, the strengths of these forces, estimated from experience, project cropland shrinking by nearly 200 million hectares, more than three times the land area of France. Changes in some of the forces, with crop yield the most manageable, could double the shrinkage. Reasonable assumptions about the forces can also make the distribution of spared land between rich and poor countries roughly equal. Although the encroachment factor translating cropland change into forest land change varies greatly, one‐third or more of the cropland spared could become forest.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul E. Waggoner & Jesse H. Ausubel, 2001. "How Much Will Feeding More and Wealthier People Encroach on Forests?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(2), pages 239-257, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:27:y:2001:i:2:p:239-257
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00239.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00239.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00239.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mitchell,Donald O. & Ingco,Merlinda D. & Duncan,Ronald C., 1997. "The World Food Outlook," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521589840, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Terheggen, Anne, 2010. "The new kid in the forest: the impact of China's resource demand on Gabon's tropical timber value chain," MPRA Paper 37982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Vallino, Elena & Aldahsev,Gani, 2013. "NGOs and participatory conservation in developing countries: why are there inefficiencies?," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201318, University of Turin.
    3. Aldashev, Gani & Vallino, Elena, 2019. "The dilemma of NGOs and participatory conservation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Vine Mutyasira & Dana Hoag & Dustin L. Pendell & Dale T. Manning, 2018. "Is Sustainable Intensification Possible? Evidence from Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-13, November.
    5. Sokka, Laura & Antikainen, Riina & Kauppi, Pekka E., 2007. "Municipal solid waste production and composition in Finland—Changes in the period 1960–2002 and prospects until 2020," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 475-488.
    6. Geoffrey McNicoll, 2014. "Population and sustainability," Chapters, in: Giles Atkinson & Simon Dietz & Eric Neumayer & Matthew Agarwala (ed.), Handbook of Sustainable Development, chapter 19, pages 291-303, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
    2. Clotilde Grandval & Jean-Christophe Bureau & Herve Guyomard & Laurence Roudart, 2006. "Panorama des analyses prospectives sur l'évolution de la sécurité alimentaire mondiale à l'horizon 2020-2030," Working Papers hal-02819396, HAL.
    3. Graham, Brett & Tyers, Rodney, 2002. "Global Population Forecast Errors, Economic Performance and Food Demand: Preliminary Simulations," 2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra, Australia 125091, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    4. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
    5. Alex F. McCalla & John Nash, 2007. "Reforming Agricultural Trade for Developing Countries : Volume 2. Quantifyng the Impact of Multilateral Trade Reform," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13520.
    6. McCalla, Alex F & Revoredo, Cesar L., 2001. "Prospects for global food security: a critical appraisal of past projections and predictions," 2020 vision discussion papers 35, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. David, Cristina C., 1996. "Food: Is a Crisis Looming," Discussion Papers DP 1996-09, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    8. Tim Dyson & Cormac Ó Gráda, 2002. "Demography, food production and famine risks in the 21st century," Working Papers 200216, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    9. Keyzer, M.A. & Merbis, M.D. & Pavel, I.F.P.W. & van Wesenbeeck, C.F.A., 2005. "Diet shifts towards meat and the effects on cereal use: can we feed the animals in 2030?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 187-202, November.
    10. Bello, Amelia L., 2004. "Food Security, Agricultural Efficiency and Regional Integration," Discussion Papers DP 2004-38, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    11. Toma, Luiza & Mathijs, Erik & Revoredo-Giha, Cesar, 2006. "Linkages between Agriculture, Trade and the Environment in the Context of the European Union Accession," Working Papers 45991, Scotland's Rural College (formerly Scottish Agricultural College), Land Economy & Environment Research Group.
    12. Niek Koning & Arthur Mol, 2009. "Wanted: institutions for balancing global food and energy markets," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 1(3), pages 291-303, September.
    13. Ionel BOSTAN, 2016. "An Analysis Of The "Bio" / "Eco" Products Market, Referring To The Eu And Romania," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 8(1), pages 33-44, March.
    14. Moon, Wanki & Florkowski, Wojciech J. & Beuchat, Larry R. & Resurreccion, Anna V. A. & Paraskova, Pavlina & Jordanov, Jordan & Chinnan, Manjeet S., 2002. "Food intake patterns of the unemployed and pensioners in Bulgaria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 621-637, November.
    15. Keyzer, Michiel A. & Merbis, Max D. & Pavel, Ferdinand, 2002. "Can We Feed the Animals? Origins and Implications of Rising Meat Demand," 2002 International Congress, August 28-31, 2002, Zaragoza, Spain 24955, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Tey, (John) Yeong-Sheng & Shamsudin, Mad Nasir & Mohamed, Zainalabidin & Abdullah, Amin Mahir & Radam, Alias, 2008. "Demand analyses of rice in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 15062, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Yongzheng Yang, 2000. "Food Embargoes against China: Their Likelihood and Potential Consequences," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 304, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    18. Shoemaker, Robbin A. & Harwood, Joy L. & Day-Rubenstein, Kelly A. & Dunahay, Terry & Heisey, Paul W. & Hoffman, Linwood A. & Klotz-Ingram, Cassandra & Lin, William W. & Mitchell, Lorraine & McBride, W, 2001. "Economic Issues In Agricultural Biotechnology," Agricultural Information Bulletins 33735, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    19. Rutherford, A. S., 1999. "Meat and milk self-sufficiency in Asia: forecast trends and implications," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 21-39, August.
    20. Gilbert, Christopher L., 2011. "Food Reserves in Developing Countries: Trade Policy Options for Improved Food Security," Price Volatility and Beyond 320199, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:27:y:2001:i:2:p:239-257. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0098-7921 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.