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Post‐Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Performance: Avoiding Chapter 22

Author

Listed:
  • Edward I. Altman
  • Tushar Kant
  • Thongchai Rattanaruengyot
Abstract
Despite the long experience in the U.S. with restructuring companies in bankruptcy, there remains a persistent tendency for companies to emerge from Chapter 11 with too much debt and too little profitability. In this article, the author uses a variant of his well‐known “Z‐Score” bankruptcy prediction model to assess the future viability of companies when emerging from bankruptcy, including the likelihood that they will file again—a surprisingly common phenomenon that is now referred to as “Chapter 22.” The author reports that those companies that filed second bankruptcy petitions were both significantly less profitable and more highly leveraged than those that emerged and continued as going concerns. Indeed, the average financial profile and bond rating equivalent for the “Chapter 22” companies on emerging from their first bankruptcies were not much better than those of companies in default. The authors findings also suggest that a credible corporate distress prediction model could be used as an independent, unbiased method for assessing the future viability of proposed reorganization plans. Another potential application of the model is by the creditors of the “old” company when assessing the investment value of the new package of securities, including new equity, offered in the plan.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward I. Altman & Tushar Kant & Thongchai Rattanaruengyot, 2009. "Post‐Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Performance: Avoiding Chapter 22," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 21(3), pages 53-64, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jacrfn:v:21:y:2009:i:3:p:53-64
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-6622.2009.00239.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael J. Alderson & Brian L. Betker, 1999. "Assessing Postbankruptcy Performance: An Analysis of Reorganized Firms' Cash Flows," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 28(2), Summer.
    2. Gilson, Stuart C, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Capital Structure Choice: Evidence from Financially Distressed Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 161-196, March.
    3. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    4. Allan C. Eberhart & Edward I. Altman & Reena Aggarwal, 1999. "The Equity Performance of Firms Emerging from Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1855-1868, October.
    5. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    6. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    7. Altman, Edward I., 2005. "An emerging market credit scoring system for corporate bonds," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 311-323, December.
    8. Hotchkiss, Edith S. & Mooradian, Robert M., 1998. "Acquisitions as a Means of Restructuring Firms in Chapter 11," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 240-262, July.
    9. Franklin Allen & Sudipto Bhattacharya & Raghuram Rajan & Antoinette Schoar, 2008. "The Contributions of Stewart Myers to the Theory and Practice of Corporate Finance," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 20(4), pages 8-19, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ayadi, Rim & Abid, Ilyes & Guesmi, Khaled, 2021. "Survival of reorganized firms in France," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    2. Jaka Cepec & Peter Grajzl, 0. "Management turnover, ownership change, and post-bankruptcy failure of small businesses," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-27.
    3. Dror Parnes, 2011. "Developments in corporate creditworthiness around ownership events," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(4), pages 377-396, September.
    4. Lara Abdel Fattah & Sylvain Barthélémy & Nadine Levratto & Benjamin Trempont, 2016. "Post-reorganization survival: a semi-parametric and non-parametric analysis of firm characteristics," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-22, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Jaka Cepec & Peter Grajzl, 2021. "Management turnover, ownership change, and post-bankruptcy failure of small businesses," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 555-581, June.
    6. Steven Liew Woon Choy & Jayaraman Munusamy & Shankar Chelliah & Ally Mandari, 2011. "Effects of Financial Distress Condition on the Company Performance: A Malaysian Perspective," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 85-99, August.

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