Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/econom/v73y2006i289p129-156.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Public Debt, the Unit Root Hypothesis and Structural Breaks: A Multi‐Country Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • MERIH UCTUM
  • THOM THURSTON
  • REMZI UCTUM
Abstract
We assess fiscal performances in G7 and selected Latin American and Asian countries. We consider two questions: (i) Have public finances been sustainable? (ii) Do countries follow more restrictive fiscal policies when debt starts to rise? We find that: (i) the traditional unit root tests often overlook the corrective actions taken by many governments; controlling for structural breaks changes the non‐stationarity results dramatically among the three groups; (ii) estimation of a reaction function for governments, expanded by incorporating structural breaks, provides further evidence for significant active anti‐debt policies among G7 countries, and to a lesser extent in the other regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Merih Uctum & Thom Thurston & Remzi Uctum, 2006. "Public Debt, the Unit Root Hypothesis and Structural Breaks: A Multi‐Country Analysis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(289), pages 129-156, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:73:y:2006:i:289:p:129-156
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0335.2006.00451.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2006.00451.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2006.00451.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November.
    4. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
    5. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-445, July.
    6. John T. Cuddington, 1997. "Analysing the Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits in Developing Countries," International Finance 9706001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    8. Dan Ben-David & Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 2003. "Unit roots, postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: Evidence from two structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 303-319, April.
    9. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    10. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    11. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    12. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    13. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    14. Wickens, M. R. & Uctum, Merih, 1993. "The sustainability of current account deficits : A test of the US intertemporal budget constraint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 423-441, May.
    15. Buiter, Willem H. & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "`Excessive Deficits': Sense and Nonsense in the Treaty of Maastricht," CEPR Discussion Papers 750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
    17. Kremers, Jeroen J. M., 1989. "U.S. Federal indebtedness and the conduct of fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-238, March.
    18. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter & Kontrus, Karl, 1989. "A new test for structural stability in the linear regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 307-318, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abderrahim Chibi & Sidi Mohamed Chekouri & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2019. "The dynamics of fiscal policy in Algeria: sustainability and structural change," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, December.
    2. Abderrahim Chibi & Sidi Mohamed Chekouri & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2015. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Algeria: a Nonlinear Approach," Working Papers 962, Economic Research Forum, revised Oct 2015.
    3. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    4. Makrydakis, Stelios & Tzavalis, Elias & Balfoussias, Athanassios, 1998. "Policy regime changes and the long-run sustainability of fiscal policy: an application to Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 71-86, January.
    5. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-44, March.
    6. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Laura Sauci, 2020. "Public finances in the EU-27: Are they sustainable?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 181-204, February.
    7. Bill Russell & Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2019. "Breaks and the statistical process of inflation: the case of estimating the ‘modern’ long-run Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1455-1475, May.
    8. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    9. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L. A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2004. "Is the US fiscal deficit sustainable?: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 501-526.
    10. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    11. Giancarlo Marini & Alessandro Piergallini, 2008. "Indicators and Tests of Fiscal Sustainability: An Integrated Approach," CEIS Research Paper 111, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Jul 2008.
    12. Francisco de Castro & José M. González-Páramo & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2001. "Evaluating the dynamics of fiscal policy in Spain: patterns of interdependence and consistency of public expenditure and revenues," Working Papers 0103, Banco de España.
    13. Vito Polito & Mike Wickens, 2005. "Measuring Fiscal Sustainability," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0503, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    14. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2010. "Mean Reversion Of The Fiscal Conduct In 24 Developing Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(4), pages 302-325, July.
    15. P Muthuramu & T Uma Maheswari, 2019. "Tests for Structural Breaks in Time Series Analysis: A Review of Recent Development," Shanlax International Journal of Economics, Shanlax Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 66-79, September.
    16. Paniagua, Jordi & Sapena, Juan & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability in EMU countries: A continued fiscal commitment?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 85-97.
    17. Beqiraj, Elton & Fedeli, Silvia & Forte, Francesco, 2018. "Public debt sustainability: An empirical study on OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 238-248.
    18. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2018. "Is there a bubble component in government debt? New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 467-486.
    19. Steven P. Cassou & Hedieh Shadmani & Jesús Vázquez, 2017. "Fiscal policy asymmetries and the sustainability of US government debt revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 1193-1215, November.
    20. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Mike, 2012. "A model-based indicator of the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 526-551.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:73:y:2006:i:289:p:129-156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.