Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/agecon/v52y2021i4p561-574.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The susceptibility of farmland loans to default under falling farmland and commodity prices

Author

Listed:
  • Yifei Wu
  • Jeffrey H. Dorfman
  • Brady E. Brewer
Abstract
Periods of high commodity prices and rising farmland debt loads are typically accompanied with speculation that there will eventually be declines in commodity and farmland prices that may lead to a farm credit crisis. We evaluate the likelihood of such a crisis using a simulation model of heterogeneous farmers during periods of volatile commodity and farmland prices. This model simulates a period of increasing commodity and farmland prices with a subsequent drop in prices of farmland and commodities. We find default rates are less sensitive to commodity prices than farmland prices, that the length of time prices remain low matters significantly, and that when both farmland and commodity prices fall together defaults rise more than the sum of the responses to separate price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Yifei Wu & Jeffrey H. Dorfman & Brady E. Brewer, 2021. "The susceptibility of farmland loans to default under falling farmland and commodity prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 561-574, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:52:y:2021:i:4:p:561-574
    DOI: 10.1111/agec.12635
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12635
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/agec.12635?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allison Borchers & Jennifer Ifft & Todd Kuethe, 2014. "Linking the Price of Agricultural Land to Use Values and Amenities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1307-1320.
    2. Jeremy G. Weber & Nigel Key, 2014. "Do Wealth Gains from Land Appreciation Cause Farmers to Expand Acreage or Buy Land?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1334-1348.
    3. Silke Hüttel & Simon Jetzinger & Martin Odening, 2014. "Forced Sales and Farmland Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(3), pages 395-410.
    4. Jeremy G. Weber & Nigel Key, 2015. "Leveraging Wealth from Farmland Appreciation: Borrowing, Land Ownership, and Farm Expansion," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 91(2), pages 344-361.
    5. Kuethe, Todd H., 2016. "Business and Credit Cycles in Agriculture," Agricultural Outlook Forum 2016 236867, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Outlook Forum.
    6. Paula Lopes, 2008. "Credit Card Debt and Default over the Life Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 769-790, June.
    7. Yifei Wu & Jeffrey H Dorfman, 2018. "Reducing residential mortgage default: Should policy act before or after home purchases?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(7), pages 1-23, July.
    8. Allen M. Featherstone & Laura M. Roessler & Peter J. Barry, 2006. "Determining the Probability of Default and Risk-Rating Class for Loans in the Seventh Farm Credit District Portfolio," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 4-23.
    9. Keith C. Brown & Deborah J. Brown, 1984. "Heterogenous Expectations and Farmland Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(2), pages 164-169.
    10. Paula Lopes, 2008. "Credit Card Debt and Default over the Life Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 769-790, June.
    11. Brian C. Briggeman & Michael A. Gunderson & Brent A. Gloy, 2009. "The Financial Health of Agricultural Lenders," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1406-1413.
    12. Aruoba, S. Borağan & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, 2015. "A comparison of programming languages in macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 265-273.
    13. Brian C. Briggeman, 2010. "Debt, income and farm financial stress," Main Street Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue 6.
    14. Burns, Christopher & Tulman, Sarah & Harris, J. Michael, 2015. "Farm Financial Stress in a Changing Economic Environment: Simulating Credit Risk with New Imputed ARMS Data on Farm Debt," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205295, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Brewer, Brady & Wilson, Christine & Featherstone, Allen & Harris, J. & Erickson, Ken & Hallahan, Charles, 2012. "Measuring the Financial Health of U.S. Production Agriculture," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2012, pages 1-16.
    16. Briggeman, Brian C. & Gunderson, Michael A. & Gloy, Brent A., 2009. "AJAE appendix for “The Financial Health of Agricultural Lenders”," American Journal of Agricultural Economics APPENDICES, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1-7, August.
    17. Magill, Michael & Quinzii, Martine, 2015. "Prices and investment with collateral and default," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 111-132.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. B. James Deaton & Chad Lawley, 2022. "A survey of literature examining farmland prices: A Canadian focus," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 70(2), pages 95-121, June.
    2. Fiechter, Chad & Kuethe, Todd, 2021. "Agricultural Lenders and Farmland Appraisers Disagreement on Farmland Value Expectations," 2021 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition (Virtual Meeting), October 6-7, 2021 316031, Regional Research Committee NC-1177 (formerly NC-1014): Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    3. Fiechter, Chad & Kuethe, Todd & Zhang, Wendong, 2023. "Information Rigidities and Farmland Value Expectations," ISU General Staff Papers 202306131414240000, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. repec:ags:aaea22:335505 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Yifei Wu & Jeffrey H Dorfman, 2018. "Reducing residential mortgage default: Should policy act before or after home purchases?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(7), pages 1-23, July.
    6. Czyżewski, Bazyli & Trojanek, Radosław, 2016. "Drivers of agricultural land prices in terms of different functions of rural areas in Poland," Problems of Agricultural Economics / Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej 249742, Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics - National Research Institute (IAFE-NRI).
    7. Fiechter, Chad M. & Kuethe, Todd H. & Zhang, Wendong, 2022. "Information Rigidities in Farmland Value Expectations," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322070, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Cortney Cowley, 2016. "The Dispersion of Farmland Values in the Tenth District," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 29-67.
    9. Callahan, Scott & Ifft, Jennifer & Michaud, Clayton P., 2022. "The impact of countercyclical farm programs on agricultural land values," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322579, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Plogmann, Jana & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2022. "Farmland sales under returns and price uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    11. Burns, Christopher & Tulman, Sarah & Harris, J. Michael, 2015. "Farm Financial Stress in a Changing Economic Environment: Simulating Credit Risk with New Imputed ARMS Data on Farm Debt," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205295, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Geoffroy Enjolras & Philippe Madiès, 2020. "The role of bank analysts and scores in the prediction of financial distress: Evidence from French farms," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 2978-2993.
    13. Marlene Kionka & Martin Odening & Jana Plogmann & Matthias Ritter, 2021. "Measuring liquidity in agricultural land markets," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 82(4), pages 690-713, September.
    14. West, Steele, 2021. "The Estimation of Farm Business Inefficiency in the Presence of Debt Repayment," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315048, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Aller, Carlos & González Chapela, Jorge, 2013. "Misclassification of the dependent variable in a debt–repayment behavior context," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 162-172.
    16. Enjolras, Geoffroy & Madiès, Philippe, 2017. "The determinants of financial distress in French farms: Analysts versus Algorithms," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259168, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Góral, Justyna & Kulawik, Jacek, 2015. "Problem of capitalisation of subsidies in agriculture," Problems of Agricultural Economics / Zagadnienia Ekonomiki Rolnej 240758, Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics - National Research Institute (IAFE-NRI).
    18. Johanna Jauernig & Stephan Brosig & Silke Hüttel, 2023. "Profession and residency matter: Farmers' preferences for farmland price regulation in Germany," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 816-834, September.
    19. Hisham S. El-Osta, 2016. "Farmland Ownership and Its Impact on the Debt Servicing Capacity Among U.S. Married-Couple Farm Households," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 190-206, November.
    20. Dal Borgo Mariela, 2021. "Do Bankruptcy Protection Levels Affect Households' Demand for Stocks?," Working Papers 2021-03, Banco de México.
    21. Scott Fulford & Scott Schuh, 2020. "Credit Cards, Credit Utilization, and Consumption," Working Papers 19-07, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:52:y:2021:i:4:p:561-574. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.