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Nobel Laureate Robert E. Lucas, Jr.: Architect of Modern Macroeconomics

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  • V. V. Chari
Abstract
In 1995, Robert E. Lucas was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize for Economic Science. This review places Lucas's work in a historical context and evaluates the effect of this work on the economics profession. Lucas's central contribution is that he developed and applied economic theory to answer substantive questions in macroeconomics. Economists today routinely analyze systems in which agents operate in complex probabilistic environments to understand interactions about which the great theorists of an earlier generation could only speculate. This sea change is due primarily to Lucas.

Suggested Citation

  • V. V. Chari, 1998. "Nobel Laureate Robert E. Lucas, Jr.: Architect of Modern Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 171-186, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:12:y:1998:i:1:p:171-86
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.12.1.171
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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.12.1.171
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-681, September.
    2. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-1286, September.
    3. Sargent, Thomas J., 1996. "Expectations and the nonneutrality of Lucas," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 535-548, June.
    4. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-237, April.
    5. Phelps, Edmund S, 1969. "The New Microeconomics in Inflation and Employment Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 147-160, May.
    6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    7. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 678-678.
    8. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
    9. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    10. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1978. "On the Time Consistency of Optimal Policy in a Monetary Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1411-1428, November.
    11. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1996. "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 661-682, August.
    12. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(6), pages 467-467.
    13. Franco Modigliani, 1977. "The monetarist controversy; or, should we forsake stabilization policies?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Spr suppl, pages 27-46.
    14. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    15. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    16. Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695.
    17. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    18. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Rapping, Leonard A, 1969. "Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 721-754, Sept./Oct.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marchionatti, Roberto & Sella, Lisa, 2015. "Is Neo-Walrasian Macroeconomics a Dead End?," CESMEP Working Papers 201502, University of Turin.
    2. Robert L. Formaini, 1999. "Evolution of the Regulatory State : The Mixed Economy Viewed Through a Complexity Lens," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 15(Fall 1999), pages 67-97.
    3. Hugo C. W. Chu, 2015. "Lucas’ Equilibrium Account of the Business Cycle: Optimizing Behavior, General Equilibrium, and Modeling Rational Expectations," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2015_30, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    4. David Hoaas, 2000. "Mining improbable postulates and the theory of diverting toys(Advances in General Equilibrium Theory) Donald A. Walker Edward Elgar, 1997, 165 pp," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(1), pages 104-113, March.
    5. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2021. "From the Stagflation to the Great Inflation: Explaining the US economy of the 1970s," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 131(3), pages 557-582.
    6. Hugo Chu Chun Wei, 2018. "Representative Agent, Rational Expectations, And General Equilibrium Theory In Lucas?S Theoretical Framework: Some Considerations," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 9, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. T. R. Bishnoi & T. P. Koirala, 2006. "Stability and Robustness of Inflation Model of Nepal: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 4(2), pages 114-129, July.
    8. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1998. "À la poursuite du Graal : le successeur d’IS-LM est-il identifié?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 74(4), pages 607-620, décembre.
    9. Simon Bilo, 2018. "Lucas and Hume on Monetary Non-neutrality: A Tension between the Logic and the Technique of Economics," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 364-380, June.
    10. Tom van Veen, 2020. "Have Macroeconomic Models Lost Their Connection with Economic Reality?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8256, CESifo.
    11. Alexandre Flávio Silva Andrada, 2014. "Um Estudo Do Discurso Doutrinário De Robert E. Lucas Jr. Método E História Das Ideias Acerca Das Análises De Ciclos Econômicos," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 005, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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    JEL classification:

    • B31 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals - - - Individuals
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics

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