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The Intensifying Effects of Prolonged Climate Change on Conflict, 1400–1900 CE

Author

Listed:
  • Murat Iyigun
  • Joris Mueller
  • Nancy Qian
Abstract
This study uses historical conflict and weather data for the period 1400–1900 CE to investigate the long-run effects of climate change on political instability in a context that suffered extensive cooling. The results show that temperature changes have little effect on conflict if they are isolated events but that consecutive periods of cooling are associated with increased conflict. This is consistent with the conventional wisdom that societies and economies are able to adapt to a certain amount of environmental change. But if climate change is prolonged, then the disruptions they cause can cumulate and lead to political instability.

Suggested Citation

  • Murat Iyigun & Joris Mueller & Nancy Qian, 2024. "The Intensifying Effects of Prolonged Climate Change on Conflict, 1400–1900 CE," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 114, pages 80-83, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:114:y:2024:p:80-83
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20241058
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3886/E201701V1
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N50 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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