Papers by Francis O Connor
Revista Internacional de Sociología, 2019
This article seeks to understand the trajectory of radicalization in the Catalan 'procés'. Regard... more This article seeks to understand the trajectory of radicalization in the Catalan 'procés'. Regardless of their formal legal standing, referendum campaigns are distinct political opportunities which also generate further opportunities. Contrary to what some theories of protest would predict, when political opportunities are closed down at national level, and repression toughens, violent escalation leading to fragmentation and ultimately demobilization does not necessarily ensue, at least in the short term. As the Catalan 'procés' illustrates between the mid-2000s and late-2018, the combination of mechanisms such as appropriation of opportunities, downward scale shift and movement convergence can mitigate escalation processes. A dense network of local and grassroots assemblies displaced the previously dominant, major civil society organizations that led mass protests, especially during the 2012-2015 'diadas'. These grassroots actors prioritized the organization of dissent through more direct, more disruptive, but mostly peaceful forms of action. This in turn facilitated movement convergence, based upon solidarization, as it opened up local spaces where the activists from across the spectrum could mobilize together, preempting a clear violent escalation and the emergence of violent splinter groups till late 2018.
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Between Democracy and Law The Amorality of Secession, 2019
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Between Democracy and Law, 2019
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Kurdish Studies, 2019
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PRIF Blog, 2019
The terrorist attack in New Zealand which resulted in 50 deaths and multiple injuries is a bloody... more The terrorist attack in New Zealand which resulted in 50 deaths and multiple injuries is a bloody and tragic reminder of the threat posed by the far-right. The world has been scarred by an upsurge in far-right attacks, many perpetrated by lone actors. Yet, recent research has demonstrated that the far-right is dramatically understudied in comparison to other forms of violent radicalisation.
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PRIF Blog, 2019
On January 17, the National Liberation Army (ELN) attacked the General Santander Police Academy i... more On January 17, the National Liberation Army (ELN) attacked the General Santander Police Academy in Bogota, resulting in 21 deaths and more than 70 wounded. Beyond the sheer number of victims, the attack is notable because it targeted a well-protected facility in the heart of the Colombian capital. In the wake of the attack, the government definitively ended the faltering peace negotiations with the ELN in Cuba.
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PRIF Blog, 2019
El pasado 17 de enero, un atentado del Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) en la Escuela de Pol... more El pasado 17 de enero, un atentado del Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) en la Escuela de Policía General Santander en Bogotá, resultó en 21 muertos y más de 70 heridos. Más allá del número de víctimas, el ataque se destaca por ser una acción sin precedentes contra una instalación bien protegida en el corazón de la capital colombiana. Ante este ataque el gobierno dió fin definitivo a las vacilantes negociaciones de paz entre el ELN y el gobierno colombiano que se habían estancado en Cuba.
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PRIF Working Paper , 2019
This working paper is a first step in the development of a conceptual framework to analyse
the sp... more This working paper is a first step in the development of a conceptual framework to analyse
the spaces where insurgents and civilians interact. Building on relational research addressing insurgent support networks and rebel governance, it develops the concept of Routinised
Insurgent Space (RIS) as a means to systematically assess the way that movements spatially order interactions with existing and potential supporters. It focuses on four specific
examples of RIS: insurgent systems of justice and policing, service provision, prison mobilisation and funerals. It draws primarily on two case studies, the M-19 in Colombia (early
1970s–1990) and the PKK in Turkey (mid 1970s–1999).
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Perspectives on Terrorism, 2018
Recent research on lone-actor terrorism has emphasized that many far-right attackers are guided b... more Recent research on lone-actor terrorism has emphasized that many far-right attackers are guided by the doctrine of Leaderless Resistance, which holds that individual militants have a personal onus to autonomously carry out attacks. In this framework, Italy stands out because, despite its bloody history of right-wing political violence and terrorism, it has heretofore avoided, with one notable exception, any fatal lone actor attacks. This article presents a deviant case design: focusing on the exceptional case of Gianluca Casseri, the CasaPound sympathizer who went on a shooting spree in Florence in 2011, it questions theoretical assumptions concerning the non-occurrence of lone-actor terrorism by advancing a general proposition for why terrorists opt to act individually in settings where collective action is the norm. Based on first-hand information from CasaPound militants, and extensive primary data on the radicalization of Casseri, we argue that the choice between autonomous and collective violence is not only a matter of contextual constraints, personality and strategic choice. Rather, it also crucially depends on the degree of embeddedness of an individual in his or her milieu, and on the nature of the radical movement itself. The findings thus contribute to identifying the conditions that make the occurrence of lone-actor terrorism most likely, as well as the circumstances under which existing countervailing forces might fail to impede individual rad-icalization.
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Methodological Approaches in Kurdish Studies: Theoretical and Practical Insights from the Field, edited by Bahar Baser, Mari Toivanen, Begum Zorlu, and Yasin Duman, 123–45. Lanham: Lexington Books., 2018
This chapter discusses a period of fieldwork we conducted in September 2012 in Northern Kurdistan... more This chapter discusses a period of fieldwork we conducted in September 2012 in Northern Kurdistan, which was a relatively bloody month in the ongoing conflict resulting in 96 reported deaths: 53 members of the security forces, 39 PKK guerrillas and 4 civilians1. Violence had resumed in August 2011, marking the end of the so-called Kurdish Opening initiated by the AKP a few years earlier (Gunter 2013, 442–43). The three Kurdish majority cities where we conducted interviews Kızıltepe (Qoser), Mardin (Mêrdîn) and Diyarbakır (Amed) did not witness any fighting or significant disturbances in that period but there was certainly a pervasive atmosphere of tension. Our local contacts expressly warned us and essentially prohibited us from travelling to Hakkari and Yüksekova due to a number of large scale counter-insurgency operations. Undoubtedly, the conditions there would have been significantly more challenging and more akin to the situation described by other authors with experience of research directly in conflict areas (Sluka 1989, 9–43; E. J. Wood 2003). Yet, many of the people with whom we socialized, and we conducted interviews, had been directly or indirectly affected by the state’s clampdown on Kurdish civil society which had resulted in the imprisonment of thousands of Kurdish activists, as well as politically non-mobilized Kurds (Casier, Jongerden, and Walker 2011). Accordingly, although our physical safety was never in question, the research environment was profoundly influenced by the broader security situation. It rendered us more cautious in spontaneous interactions and likely ensured that people were more hesitant in agreeing to speak with us and also regarding the material they felt comfortable discussing.
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Contrary to some predictions prior to the election, the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ... more Contrary to some predictions prior to the election, the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan comfortably succeeded in winning the Presidential election (52.6%) without the need of a second round of voting. His party, the AKP obtained a parliamentary majority (53.7%), in coalition with the far-right MHP. However, the elections were held in an electoral environment characterised by a number of inherently antidemocratic limitations on opposition parties’ campaigns and the widespread occurrence of intimidation and violence. The experiences of the HDP exemplify some of the most blatant features of state led authoritarian interference in the campaign.
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On Saturday February 3rd, a 28 year old far-right activist Luca Traini went on a shooting rampage... more On Saturday February 3rd, a 28 year old far-right activist Luca Traini went on a shooting rampage in the small town of Macerata in central Italy. Over the course of a few hours, he randomly shot and wounded 5 men and one woman of African origin. He was eventually apprehended by police wrapped in an Italian flag, in front of a monument to Italy’s war dead, performing the Roman salute and screaming “Viva l’Italia”. Traini claimed that he had heard a radio news report detailing the arrest of a Nigerian drug dealer as a suspect related to the local death of a teenage girl Pamela Mastropietro, when he decided to get his legally held gun and “kill them all”, referring to the local African community. Notwithstanding the attack’s evident racial motivations, the aftermath of the shootings has been framed in terms of migrants as a source of tension rather than focusing on the far-right milieu as a generator of political violence.
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PRIF Blog
Turkey's 'Operation Olive Branch' is a marked escalation of its campaign against the Kurdish auto... more Turkey's 'Operation Olive Branch' is a marked escalation of its campaign against the Kurdish autonomous regions in Syria. The battle for Afrin, a mountainous, well defended region protected by a battle hardened Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) forces will likely be protracted and lead to significant civilian casualties, due to Afrin's large community of internally displaced Syrians. It will further compound the ongoing conflict against Kurds in Turkey and lead to, as of yet, unclear regional ramifications.
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South Africa's large trade union movement, particularly the COSATU federation, played a decisive ... more South Africa's large trade union movement, particularly the COSATU federation, played a decisive role in the overthrow of Apartheid in 1994. COSATU consequently became a constituent member of the governing Triple Alliance dominated by the ANC, but notwithstanding some early achievements, it has become gradually marginalized by its former allies and detached from its radical origins and grassroots members. This steady decline has led to fragmentation, disengagement of union activists, and the return of autonomous workers' committees. The state reaction to grassroots protest has been characterized by efforts at cooptation and repression. State violence against trade unionists culminated in the massacre of striking platinum miners at Marikana in 2012, a decisive turning point in declining state legitimacy. This chapter traces this slow decline of the ANC and COSATU's legitimacy, situates the massacre in the broader context of labor and social movement contention, and details the processes of worker mobilization in the immediate lead-up to the killings.
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Books by Francis O Connor
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Ireland had long been put forward as a model of sensible governance to be emulated by other count... more Ireland had long been put forward as a model of sensible governance to be emulated by other countries suffering during the economic crisis. The government assiduously applied the Troika’s economic dictates and the Irish population reputedly, stoically accepted the ravaging of public services, wage cuts, huge unemployment and a return to mass emigration. However, after Ireland exited the Troika memorandum in 2013, instead of society rejoicing in the fruits of its responsible behaviour, it began to take to the streets. This culminated in the largest protest campaign - against the imposition of water charges - the country has arguably every witnessed. This chapter will analyse the reasons behind the inconsistency of protest in the early stages of austerity before addressing the explosion of dissent in 2014. It argues that Ireland’s specific protest patterns can be attributed to its prevailing consensual and relatively conservative political culture, as well as the institutional setting and practises of Social Partnership which undergirded it. The chapter traces protest in three waves from 2008 to 2015 and finally considers the extent of Ireland’s macro-economic economy and how that has impacted on social movement actors.
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Journal Articles by Francis O Connor
Revista Internacional de Sociología, 2019
This article seeks to understand the trajectory of radicalization in the Catalan 'procés'. Regard... more This article seeks to understand the trajectory of radicalization in the Catalan 'procés'. Regardless of their formal legal standing, referendum campaigns are distinct political opportunities which also generate further opportunities. Contrary to what some theories of protest would predict, when political opportunities are closed down at national level, and repression toughens, violent escalation leading to fragmentation and ultimately demobilization does not necessarily ensue, at least in the short term. As the Catalan 'procés' illustrates between the mid-2000s and late-2018, the combination of mechanisms such as appropriation of opportunities, downward scale shift and movement convergence can mitigate escalation processes. A dense network of local and grassroots assemblies displaced the previously dominant, major civil society organizations that led mass protests, especially during the 2012-2015 'diadas'. These grassroots actors prioritized the organization of dissent through more direct, more disruptive, but mostly peaceful forms of action. This in turn facilitated movement convergence, based upon solidarization, as it opened up local spaces where the activists from across the spectrum could mobilize together, preempting a clear violent escalation and the emergence of violent splinter groups till late 2018. Keywords Policing of protest; Secessionism; Referendums; Downward scale shift; Movement convergence. Resumen En este artículo desarrollamos un marco interpretativo para comprender la trayectoria de radicalización en el "procés" ca-talán. Independientemente del estatus legal del referéndum en cuestión, las campañas de referéndum son capaces de crear, y de hecho son en sí mismas, oportunidades políticas. En contraste con las predicciones desde las teorías de los ciclos de protesta, cuando se cierran las oportunidades a ni-vel nacional y la represión se intensifica, no necesariamente se desarrolla un proceso de radicalización que contribuye al declive del ciclo, al menos a corto plazo. Como el caso catalán ilustra entre mediados de los años 2000 y finales de 2018, varios mecanismos pueden mediar este proceso, incluyendo la apropiación de oportunidades políticas, el cambio de escala hacia abajo y la convergencia del movimiento. Una densa red de asambleas locales de base reemplaza en el a las gran-des organizaciones de la sociedad civil que hasta entonces, y especialmente durante las diadas entre 2012 y 2015, ha-bían liderado la movilización social. Aunque estas asambleas ciudadanas han abrazado repertorios de acción más direc-tos y disruptivos, estos han sido mayoritariamente pacíficos. Asimismo, este reemplazo ha favorecido la convergencia del movimiento, abriendo espacios donde activistas de un amplio espectro pueden movilizarse conjuntamente, y evitando de este modo una escalada violenta y la emergencia de grupos escindidos violentos (al menos hasta finales de 2018).
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Papers by Francis O Connor
the spaces where insurgents and civilians interact. Building on relational research addressing insurgent support networks and rebel governance, it develops the concept of Routinised
Insurgent Space (RIS) as a means to systematically assess the way that movements spatially order interactions with existing and potential supporters. It focuses on four specific
examples of RIS: insurgent systems of justice and policing, service provision, prison mobilisation and funerals. It draws primarily on two case studies, the M-19 in Colombia (early
1970s–1990) and the PKK in Turkey (mid 1970s–1999).
Books by Francis O Connor
Journal Articles by Francis O Connor
the spaces where insurgents and civilians interact. Building on relational research addressing insurgent support networks and rebel governance, it develops the concept of Routinised
Insurgent Space (RIS) as a means to systematically assess the way that movements spatially order interactions with existing and potential supporters. It focuses on four specific
examples of RIS: insurgent systems of justice and policing, service provision, prison mobilisation and funerals. It draws primarily on two case studies, the M-19 in Colombia (early
1970s–1990) and the PKK in Turkey (mid 1970s–1999).
process of radicalisation. Violent dyads remain a relatively understudied phenomenon. Using a relational approach, this article
analyses the unique character of dyadic radicalisation and how it differs from instances of lone actor or group-based terrorism.
It draws on a number of recent case studies, analysing instances of non-kin, fraternal, and spousal dyads. Its principal case
study is a failed attack in Germany in 2006, based on a range of documentary sources as well as an interview with one of the
perpetrators.
radicalization from a relational perspective. Extant research on loneactor
terrorism has shown that lone actors are rarely as “lone” as
public perceptions suggest. In most cases, lone-actor terrorists have
some social ties to established radical groups. Accordingly, this article
asks (1) why these individuals do not integrate into the radical groups
they frequent and engage in collective violence, and (2) if they do
integrate, why do they then end up engaging in violence on their
own? The article argues that patterns of lone-actor terrorist radicalization
can be categorized according to the extent and evolution of
their loneness. It highlights two broad patterns of lone-actor radicalization
in relation to broader radical groups/movements – peripheral
and embedded – and explores the reasons why some lone-actor
terrorists remain peripherally integrated in radical groups, while
others become more embedded only to engage in violence alone.
The article is based on qualitative research, drawing on a geographically
and ideologically diverse sample of cases (N = 25), and access to
restricted material. The article identifies and theorizes five recurrent
radicalization trajectories, which are variations of the peripheral and
embedded patterns, and discuss the implications for prevention/
interdiction.