Pemodelan moving average

Airport 3 month's moving ABSOLUTE % 5 month's moving ABSOLUTE ABSOLUTE %

NO Date ERROR ABSOLUTE ERROR SQUARE OF ERROR ERROR SQUARE OF ERROR
Passengers average ERROR average ERROR ERROR
1 Jan-15 3,204,637.00 -
2 Feb-15 2,966,477.00 -
3 Mar-15 3,593,364.00 -
4 Apr-15 3,604,104.00 3,254,826.00 349,278.00 349,278.00 121,995,121,284.00 0.10
5 May-15 3,933,016.00 3,387,981.67 545,034.33 545,034.33 297,062,424,512.11 0.14
6 Jun-15 4,146,797.00 3,710,161.33 436,635.67 436,635.67 190,650,705,405.44 0.11 3,460,319.60 686,477.40 686,477.40 471,251,220,710.76 0.17
7 Jul-15 4,176,486.00 3,894,639.00 281,847.00 281,847.00 79,437,731,409.00 0.07 3,648,751.60 527,734.40 527,734.40 278,503,596,943.36 0.13
8 Aug-15 4,347,059.00 4,085,433.00 261,626.00 261,626.00 68,448,163,876.00 0.06 3,890,753.40 456,305.60 456,305.60 208,214,800,591.36 0.10
9 Sep-15 3,781,168.00 4,223,447.33 (442,279.33) 442,279.33 195,611,008,693.78 0.12 4,041,492.40 (260,324.40) 260,324.40 67,768,793,235.36 0.07
10 Oct-15 3,872,278.00 4,101,571.00 (229,293.00) 229,293.00 52,575,279,849.00 0.06 4,076,905.20 (204,627.20) 204,627.20 41,872,290,979.84 0.05
11 Nov-15 3,902,278.00 4,000,168.33 (97,890.33) 97,890.33 9,582,517,360.11 0.03 4,064,757.60 (162,479.60) 162,479.60 26,399,620,416.16 0.04
12 Dec-15 4,302,278.00 3,851,908.00 450,370.00 450,370.00 202,833,136,900.00 0.10 4,015,853.80 286,424.20 286,424.20 82,038,822,345.64 0.07
13 Jan-16 2,644,539.00 4,025,611.33 (1,381,072.33) 1,381,072.33 1,907,360,789,898.78 0.52 4,041,012.20 (1,396,473.20) 1,396,473.20 1,950,137,398,318.24 0.53
14 Feb-16 2,359,800.00 3,616,365.00 (1,256,565.00) 1,256,565.00 1,578,955,599,225.00 0.53 3,700,508.20 (1,340,708.20) 1,340,708.20 1,797,498,477,547.24 0.57
15 Mar-16 2,925,918.00 3,102,205.67 (176,287.67) 176,287.67 31,077,341,418.78 0.06 3,416,234.60 (490,316.60) 490,316.60 240,410,368,235.56 0.17
16 Apr-16 3,024,973.00 2,643,419.00 381,554.00 381,554.00 145,583,454,916.00 0.13 3,226,962.60 (201,989.60) 201,989.60 40,799,798,508.16 0.07
17 May-16 3,177,100.00 2,770,230.33 406,869.67 406,869.67 165,542,925,653.44 0.13 3,051,501.60 125,598.40 125,598.40 15,774,958,082.56 0.04
18 Jun-16 3,419,595.00 3,042,663.67 376,931.33 376,931.33 142,077,230,048.45 0.11 2,826,466.00 593,129.00 593,129.00 351,802,010,641.00 0.17
19 Jul-16 3,649,702.00 3,207,222.67 442,479.33 442,479.33 195,787,960,427.11 0.12 2,981,477.20 668,224.80 668,224.80 446,524,383,335.04 0.18
20 Aug-16 3,650,668.00 3,415,465.67 235,202.33 235,202.33 55,320,137,605.44 0.06 3,239,457.60 411,210.40 411,210.40 169,093,993,068.16 0.11
21 Sep-16 3,191,526.00 3,573,321.67 (381,795.67) 381,795.67 145,767,931,085.44 0.12 3,384,407.60 (192,881.60) 192,881.60 37,203,311,618.56 0.06
22 Oct-16 3,249,428.00 3,497,298.67 (247,870.67) 247,870.67 61,439,867,393.78 0.08 3,417,718.20 (168,290.20) 168,290.20 28,321,591,416.04 0.05
23 Nov-16 2,971,484.00 3,363,874.00 (392,390.00) 392,390.00 153,969,912,100.00 0.13 3,432,183.80 (460,699.80) 460,699.80 212,244,305,720.04 0.16
24 Dec-16 3,074,209.00 3,137,479.33 (63,270.33) 63,270.33 4,003,135,080.11 0.02 3,342,561.60 (268,352.60) 268,352.60 72,013,117,926.76 0.09
25 Jan-17 2,785,466.00 3,098,373.67 (312,907.67) 312,907.67 97,911,207,858.78 0.11 3,227,463.00 (441,997.00) 441,997.00 195,361,348,009.00 0.16
26 Feb-17 2,515,361.00 2,943,719.67 (428,358.67) 428,358.67 183,491,147,308.44 0.17 3,054,422.60 (539,061.60) 539,061.60 290,587,408,594.56 0.21
27 Mar-17 3,105,958.00 2,791,678.67 314,279.33 314,279.33 98,771,499,360.44 0.10 2,919,189.60 186,768.40 186,768.40 34,882,435,238.56 0.06
28 Apr-17 3,139,059.00 2,802,261.67 336,797.33 336,797.33 113,432,443,740.45 0.11 2,890,495.60 248,563.40 248,563.40 61,783,763,819.56 0.08
29 May-17 3,380,355.00 2,920,126.00 460,229.00 460,229.00 211,810,732,441.00 0.14 2,924,010.60 456,344.40 456,344.40 208,250,211,411.36 0.13
30 Jun-17 3,612,886.00 3,208,457.33 404,428.67 404,428.67 163,562,546,421.78 0.11 2,985,239.80 627,646.20 627,646.20 393,939,752,374.44 0.17
31 Jul-17 3,765,824.00 3,377,433.33 388,390.67 388,390.67 150,847,309,953.78 0.10 3,150,723.80 615,100.20 615,100.20 378,348,256,040.04 0.16
32 Aug-17 3,771,842.00 3,586,355.00 185,487.00 185,487.00 34,405,427,169.00 0.05 3,400,816.40 371,025.60 371,025.60 137,659,995,855.36 0.10
33 Sep-17 3,356,365.00 3,716,850.67 (360,485.67) 360,485.67 129,949,915,872.11 0.11 3,533,993.20 (177,628.20) 177,628.20 31,551,777,435.24 0.05
34 Oct-17 3,490,100.00 3,631,343.67 (141,243.67) 141,243.67 19,949,773,373.44 0.04 3,577,454.40 (87,354.40) 87,354.40 7,630,791,199.36 0.03
35 Nov-17 3,163,659.00 3,539,435.67 (375,776.67) 375,776.67 141,208,103,211.11 0.12 3,599,403.40 (435,744.40) 435,744.40 189,873,182,131.36 0.14
36 Dec-17 3,167,124.00 3,336,708.00 (169,584.00) 169,584.00 28,758,733,056.00 0.05 3,509,558.00 (342,434.00) 342,434.00 117,261,044,356.00 0.11
37 Jan-18 2,883,810.00 3,273,627.67 (389,817.67) 389,817.67 151,957,813,245.44 0.14 3,389,818.00 (506,008.00) 506,008.00 256,044,096,064.00 0.18
38 Feb-18 2,610,667.00 3,071,531.00 (460,864.00) 460,864.00 212,395,626,496.00 0.18 3,212,211.60 (601,544.60) 601,544.60 361,855,905,789.16 0.23
39 Mar-18 3,129,205.00 2,887,200.33 242,004.67 242,004.67 58,566,258,688.44 0.08 3,063,072.00 66,133.00 66,133.00 4,373,573,689.00 0.02
40 Apr-18 3,200,527.00 2,874,560.67 325,966.33 325,966.33 106,254,050,466.78 0.10 2,990,893.00 209,634.00 209,634.00 43,946,413,956.00 0.07
41 May-18 3,547,804.00 2,980,133.00 567,671.00 567,671.00 322,250,364,241.00 0.16 2,998,266.60 549,537.40 549,537.40 301,991,353,998.76 0.15
42 Jun-18 3,766,323.00 3,292,512.00 473,811.00 473,811.00 224,496,863,721.00 0.13 3,074,402.60 691,920.40 691,920.40 478,753,839,936.16 0.18
43 Jul-18 3,935,589.00 3,504,884.67 430,704.33 430,704.33 185,506,222,752.11 0.11 3,250,905.20 684,683.80 684,683.80 468,791,905,982.44 0.17
44 Aug-18 3,917,884.00 3,749,905.33 167,978.67 167,978.67 28,216,832,455.11 0.04 3,515,889.60 401,994.40 401,994.40 161,599,497,631.36 0.10
45 Sep-18 3,564,970.00 3,873,265.33 (308,295.33) 308,295.33 95,046,012,555.11 0.09 3,673,625.40 (108,655.40) 108,655.40 11,805,995,949.16 0.03
46 Oct-18 3,602,455.00 3,806,147.67 (203,692.67) 203,692.67 41,490,702,453.78 0.06 3,746,514.00 (144,059.00) 144,059.00 20,752,995,481.00 0.04
47 Nov-18 3,326,859.00 3,695,103.00 (368,244.00) 368,244.00 135,603,643,536.00 0.11 3,757,444.20 (430,585.20) 430,585.20 185,403,614,459.04 0.13
48 Dec-18 3,441,693.00 3,498,094.67 (56,401.67) 56,401.67 3,181,148,002.78 0.02 3,669,551.40 (227,858.40) 227,858.40 51,919,450,450.56 0.07
49 Jan-19 3,211,600.00 3,457,002.33 (245,402.33) 245,402.33 60,222,305,205.44 0.08 3,570,772.20 (359,172.20) 359,172.20 129,004,669,252.84 0.11
50 Feb-19 2,998,119.00 3,326,717.33 (328,598.33) 328,598.33 107,976,864,669.45 0.11 3,429,515.40 (431,396.40) 431,396.40 186,102,853,932.96 0.14
51 Mar-19 3,472,440.00 3,217,137.33 255,302.67 255,302.67 65,179,451,607.11 0.07 3,316,145.20 156,294.80 156,294.80 24,428,064,507.04 0.05
52 Apr-19 3,563,007.00 3,227,386.33 335,620.67 335,620.67 112,641,231,893.78 0.09 3,290,142.20 272,864.80 272,864.80 74,455,199,079.04 0.08
53 May-19 3,820,570.00 3,344,522.00 476,048.00 476,048.00 226,621,698,304.00 0.12 3,337,371.80 483,198.20 483,198.20 233,480,500,483.24 0.13
54 Jun-19 3,618,672.33 3,413,147.20
TOTAL 714,160.33 18,350,933.67 9,316,788,304,201.44 5.68 (203,828.60) 19,757,455.00 11,579,712,756,746.40 6.10
N 50.00 MAD 367,018.67 N = 48 MAD 411,613.65
MSE 186,335,766,084.03 MSE 241,244,015,765.55
RMSE 431,666.27 RMSE 491,165.98
MAPE (%) 11.35 MAPE (%) 12.72

jawaban B
Dari dua pemodelan diatas maka yang paling baik adalah menggunakan pemodelan 3-months moving average hal ini dapat di lihat dari nilai MAPE yang kecil (semakin kecil nilai MAPE maka semakin baik kemampuan forecastingnya) dengan
nilai forecast passengers di bulan Juni 2019 sebanyak 3,618,673 orang
 Pemodealn exponential smoothing
smoothing constant smoothing constant smoothing constant

Airport ABSOLUTE % ABSOLUTE ABSOLUTE % ABSOLUTE ABSOLUTE %

NO Date 0.1 ERROR ABSOLUTE ERROR SQUARE OF ERROR 0.5 ERROR SQUARE OF ERROR 0.9 ERROR SQUARE OF ERROR
Passengers ERROR ERROR ERROR ERROR ERROR
1 Jan-15 3,204,637.00 3,204,637.00 - - - - 3,204,637.00 - - - - 3,204,637.00 - - - -
2 Feb-15 2,966,477.00 2,966,477.00 - - - - 2,966,477.00 - - - - 2,966,477.00 - - - -
3 Mar-15 3,593,364.00 2,966,477.00 626,887.00 626,887.00 392,987,310,769.00 0.17 2,966,477.00 626,887.00 626,887.00 392,987,310,769.00 0.17 2,966,477.00 626,887.00 626,887.00 392,987,310,769.00 0.17
4 Apr-15 3,604,104.00 3,029,165.70 574,938.30 574,938.30 330,554,048,806.89 0.16 3,279,920.50 324,183.50 324,183.50 105,094,941,672.25 0.09 3,530,675.30 73,428.70 73,428.70 5,391,773,983.69 0.02
5 May-15 3,933,016.00 3,086,659.53 846,356.47 846,356.47 716,319,274,310.86 0.22 3,442,012.25 491,003.75 491,003.75 241,084,682,514.06 0.12 3,596,761.13 336,254.87 336,254.87 113,067,337,598.72 0.09
6 Jun-15 4,146,797.00 3,171,295.18 975,501.82 975,501.82 951,603,806,676.32 0.24 3,687,514.13 459,282.88 459,282.88 210,940,759,268.27 0.11 3,899,390.51 247,406.49 247,406.49 61,209,969,809.68 0.06
7 Jul-15 4,176,486.00 3,268,845.36 907,640.64 907,640.64 823,811,532,650.31 0.22 3,917,155.56 259,330.44 259,330.44 67,252,275,813.94 0.06 4,122,056.35 54,429.65 54,429.65 2,962,586,657.61 0.01
8 Aug-15 4,347,059.00 3,359,609.42 987,449.58 987,449.58 975,056,666,386.77 0.23 4,046,820.78 300,238.22 300,238.22 90,142,987,998.17 0.07 4,171,043.04 176,015.96 176,015.96 30,981,619,889.12 0.04
9 Sep-15 3,781,168.00 3,458,354.38 322,813.62 322,813.62 104,208,632,590.57 0.09 4,196,939.89 (415,771.89) 415,771.89 172,866,265,033.89 0.11 4,329,457.40 (548,289.40) 548,289.40 300,621,270,004.64 0.15
10 Oct-15 3,872,278.00 3,490,635.74 381,642.26 381,642.26 145,650,812,381.71 0.10 3,989,053.95 (116,775.95) 116,775.95 13,636,621,403.63 0.03 3,835,996.94 36,281.06 36,281.06 1,316,315,289.23 0.01
11 Nov-15 3,902,278.00 3,528,799.97 373,478.03 373,478.03 139,485,839,910.98 0.10 3,930,665.97 (28,387.97) 28,387.97 805,876,991.53 0.01 3,868,649.89 33,628.11 33,628.11 1,130,849,510.78 0.01
12 Dec-15 4,302,278.00 3,566,147.77 736,130.23 736,130.23 541,887,712,909.45 0.17 3,916,471.99 385,806.01 385,806.01 148,846,280,185.38 0.09 3,898,915.19 403,362.81 403,362.81 162,701,556,972.30 0.09
13 Jan-16 2,644,539.00 3,639,760.79 (995,221.79) 995,221.79 990,466,420,438.39 0.38 4,109,374.99 (1,464,835.99) 1,464,835.99 2,145,744,486,868.95 0.55 4,261,941.72 (1,617,402.72) 1,617,402.72 2,615,991,555,235.64 0.61
14 Feb-16 2,359,800.00 3,540,238.62 (1,180,438.62) 1,180,438.62 1,393,435,324,104.61 0.50 3,376,957.00 (1,017,157.00) 1,017,157.00 1,034,608,355,695.78 0.43 2,806,279.27 (446,479.27) 446,479.27 199,343,740,231.03 0.19
15 Mar-16 2,925,918.00 3,422,194.75 (496,276.75) 496,276.75 246,290,616,186.15 0.17 2,868,378.50 57,539.50 57,539.50 3,310,794,256.92 0.02 2,404,447.93 521,470.07 521,470.07 271,931,036,837.09 0.18
16 Apr-16 3,024,973.00 3,372,567.08 (347,594.08) 347,594.08 120,821,643,241.63 0.11 2,897,148.25 127,824.75 127,824.75 16,339,166,931.01 0.04 2,873,770.99 151,202.01 151,202.01 22,862,047,005.82 0.05
17 May-16 3,177,100.00 3,337,807.67 (160,707.67) 160,707.67 25,826,955,336.41 0.05 2,961,060.62 216,039.38 216,039.38 46,673,011,734.99 0.07 3,009,852.80 167,247.20 167,247.20 27,971,626,151.39 0.05
18 Jun-16 3,419,595.00 3,321,736.90 97,858.10 97,858.10 9,576,207,071.97 0.03 3,069,080.31 350,514.69 350,514.69 122,860,546,302.98 0.10 3,160,375.28 259,219.72 259,219.72 67,194,863,274.63 0.08
19 Jul-16 3,649,702.00 3,331,522.71 318,179.29 318,179.29 101,238,058,642.89 0.09 3,244,337.66 405,364.34 405,364.34 164,320,251,270.46 0.11 3,393,673.03 256,028.97 256,028.97 65,550,834,507.11 0.07
20 Aug-16 3,650,668.00 3,363,340.64 287,327.36 287,327.36 82,557,010,800.89 0.08 3,447,019.83 203,648.17 203,648.17 41,472,577,929.78 0.06 3,624,099.10 26,568.90 26,568.90 705,906,298.46 0.01
21 Sep-16 3,191,526.00 3,392,073.38 (200,547.38) 200,547.38 40,219,250,650.98 0.06 3,548,843.91 (357,317.91) 357,317.91 127,676,091,690.89 0.11 3,648,011.11 (456,485.11) 456,485.11 208,378,655,907.28 0.14
22 Oct-16 3,249,428.00 3,372,018.64 (122,590.64) 122,590.64 15,028,464,970.19 0.04 3,370,184.96 (120,756.96) 120,756.96 14,582,242,668.22 0.04 3,237,174.51 12,253.49 12,253.49 150,147,991.99 0.00
23 Nov-16 2,971,484.00 3,359,759.58 (388,275.58) 388,275.58 150,757,922,788.65 0.13 3,309,806.48 (338,322.48) 338,322.48 114,462,099,464.44 0.11 3,248,202.65 (276,718.65) 276,718.65 76,573,211,868.15 0.09
24 Dec-16 3,074,209.00 3,320,932.02 (246,723.02) 246,723.02 60,872,247,734.36 0.08 3,140,645.24 (66,436.24) 66,436.24 4,413,773,886.28 0.02 2,999,155.87 75,053.13 75,053.13 5,632,973,056.77 0.02
25 Jan-17 2,785,466.00 3,296,259.72 (510,793.72) 510,793.72 260,910,220,739.20 0.18 3,107,427.12 (321,961.12) 321,961.12 103,658,962,551.62 0.12 3,066,703.69 (281,237.69) 281,237.69 79,094,636,314.08 0.10
26 Feb-17 2,515,361.00 3,245,180.34 (729,819.34) 729,819.34 532,636,276,018.68 0.29 2,946,446.56 (431,085.56) 431,085.56 185,834,759,879.82 0.17 2,813,589.77 (298,228.77) 298,228.77 88,940,398,451.15 0.12
27 Mar-17 3,105,958.00 3,172,198.41 (66,240.41) 66,240.41 4,387,791,957.27 0.02 2,730,903.78 375,054.22 375,054.22 140,665,668,009.71 0.12 2,545,183.88 560,774.12 560,774.12 314,467,617,177.70 0.18
28 Apr-17 3,139,059.00 3,165,574.37 (26,515.37) 26,515.37 703,064,807.73 0.01 2,918,430.89 220,628.11 220,628.11 48,676,762,942.73 0.07 3,049,880.59 89,178.41 89,178.41 7,952,789,222.75 0.03
29 May-17 3,380,355.00 3,162,922.83 217,432.17 217,432.17 47,276,747,530.54 0.06 3,028,744.94 351,610.06 351,610.06 123,629,630,793.49 0.10 3,130,141.16 250,213.84 250,213.84 62,606,966,343.75 0.07
30 Jun-17 3,612,886.00 3,184,666.05 428,219.95 428,219.95 183,372,326,338.72 0.12 3,204,549.97 408,336.03 408,336.03 166,738,311,363.99 0.11 3,355,333.62 257,552.38 257,552.38 66,333,230,567.51 0.07
31 Jul-17 3,765,824.00 3,227,488.04 538,335.96 538,335.96 289,805,601,306.47 0.14 3,408,717.99 357,106.01 357,106.01 127,524,705,060.58 0.09 3,587,130.76 178,693.24 178,693.24 31,931,273,454.28 0.05
32 Aug-17 3,771,842.00 3,281,321.64 490,520.36 490,520.36 240,610,223,789.84 0.13 3,587,270.99 184,571.01 184,571.01 34,066,456,579.93 0.05 3,747,954.68 23,887.32 23,887.32 570,604,240.30 0.01
33 Sep-17 3,356,365.00 3,330,373.68 25,991.32 25,991.32 675,548,933.54 0.01 3,679,556.50 (323,191.50) 323,191.50 104,452,743,449.37 0.10 3,769,453.27 (413,088.27) 413,088.27 170,641,916,841.89 0.12
34 Oct-17 3,490,100.00 3,332,972.81 157,127.19 157,127.19 24,688,954,395.97 0.05 3,517,960.75 (27,860.75) 27,860.75 776,221,294.75 0.01 3,397,673.83 92,426.17 92,426.17 8,542,597,499.50 0.03
35 Nov-17 3,163,659.00 3,348,685.53 (185,026.53) 185,026.53 34,234,815,841.70 0.06 3,504,030.37 (340,371.37) 340,371.37 115,852,672,334.13 0.11 3,480,857.38 (317,198.38) 317,198.38 100,614,813,972.37 0.10
36 Dec-17 3,167,124.00 3,330,182.87 (163,058.87) 163,058.87 26,588,196,605.39 0.05 3,333,844.69 (166,720.69) 166,720.69 27,795,787,497.14 0.05 3,195,378.84 (28,254.84) 28,254.84 798,335,885.53 0.01
37 Jan-18 2,883,810.00 3,313,876.99 (430,066.99) 430,066.99 184,957,613,474.13 0.15 3,250,484.34 (366,674.34) 366,674.34 134,450,074,206.87 0.13 3,169,949.48 (286,139.48) 286,139.48 81,875,804,204.65 0.10
38 Feb-18 2,610,667.00 3,270,870.29 (660,203.29) 660,203.29 435,868,382,112.68 0.25 3,067,147.17 (456,480.17) 456,480.17 208,374,147,216.92 0.17 2,912,423.95 (301,756.95) 301,756.95 91,057,255,897.23 0.12
39 Mar-18 3,129,205.00 3,204,849.96 (75,644.96) 75,644.96 5,722,159,916.99 0.02 2,838,907.09 290,297.91 290,297.91 84,272,878,940.24 0.09 2,640,842.69 488,362.31 488,362.31 238,497,741,102.88 0.16
40 Apr-18 3,200,527.00 3,197,285.46 3,241.54 3,241.54 10,507,557.81 0.00 2,984,056.04 216,470.96 216,470.96 46,859,675,249.66 0.07 3,080,368.77 120,158.23 120,158.23 14,438,000,360.78 0.04
41 May-18 3,547,804.00 3,197,609.62 350,194.38 350,194.38 122,636,105,676.04 0.10 3,092,291.52 455,512.48 455,512.48 207,491,618,095.69 0.13 3,188,511.18 359,292.82 359,292.82 129,091,332,696.40 0.10
42 Jun-18 3,766,323.00 3,232,629.06 533,693.94 533,693.94 284,829,226,323.19 0.14 3,320,047.76 446,275.24 446,275.24 199,161,589,180.61 0.12 3,511,874.72 254,448.28 254,448.28 64,743,928,368.05 0.07
43 Jul-18 3,935,589.00 3,285,998.45 649,590.55 649,590.55 421,967,882,634.53 0.17 3,543,185.38 392,403.62 392,403.62 153,980,600,700.50 0.10 3,740,878.17 194,710.83 194,710.83 37,912,306,630.21 0.05
44 Aug-18 3,917,884.00 3,350,957.51 566,926.49 566,926.49 321,405,650,721.38 0.14 3,739,387.19 178,496.81 178,496.81 31,861,111,114.54 0.05 3,916,117.92 1,766.08 1,766.08 3,119,048.54 0.00
45 Sep-18 3,564,970.00 3,407,650.15 157,319.85 157,319.85 24,749,533,785.25 0.04 3,828,635.60 (263,665.60) 263,665.60 69,519,546,035.18 0.07 3,917,707.39 (352,737.39) 352,737.39 124,423,667,515.80 0.10
46 Oct-18 3,602,455.00 3,423,382.14 179,072.86 179,072.86 32,067,089,525.85 0.05 3,696,802.80 (94,347.80) 94,347.80 8,901,506,901.77 0.03 3,600,243.74 2,211.26 2,211.26 4,889,674.45 0.00
47 Nov-18 3,326,859.00 3,441,289.43 (114,430.43) 114,430.43 13,094,322,200.57 0.03 3,649,628.90 (322,769.90) 322,769.90 104,180,407,553.92 0.10 3,602,233.87 (275,374.87) 275,374.87 75,831,321,184.90 0.08
48 Dec-18 3,441,693.00 3,429,846.38 11,846.62 11,846.62 140,342,342.94 0.00 3,488,243.95 (46,550.95) 46,550.95 2,166,990,888.78 0.01 3,354,396.49 87,296.51 87,296.51 7,620,681,113.57 0.03
49 Jan-19 3,211,600.00 3,431,031.04 (219,431.04) 219,431.04 48,149,983,234.84 0.07 3,464,968.47 (253,368.47) 253,368.47 64,195,583,968.38 0.08 3,432,963.35 (221,363.35) 221,363.35 49,001,732,165.02 0.07
50 Feb-19 2,998,119.00 3,409,087.94 (410,968.94) 410,968.94 168,895,469,592.24 0.14 3,338,284.24 (340,165.24) 340,165.24 115,712,388,699.08 0.11 3,233,736.33 (235,617.33) 235,617.33 55,515,528,493.09 0.08
51 Mar-19 3,472,440.00 3,367,991.05 104,448.95 104,448.95 10,909,584,003.70 0.03 3,168,201.62 304,238.38 304,238.38 92,560,992,672.28 0.09 3,021,680.73 450,759.27 450,759.27 203,183,916,346.98 0.13
52 Apr-19 3,563,007.00 3,378,435.94 184,571.06 184,571.06 34,066,475,691.82 0.05 3,320,320.81 242,686.19 242,686.19 58,896,587,138.69 0.07 3,427,364.07 135,642.93 135,642.93 18,399,003,550.52 0.04
53 May-19 3,820,570.00 3,396,893.05 423,676.95 423,676.95 179,502,160,322.50 0.11 3,441,663.90 378,906.10 378,906.10 143,569,829,079.49 0.10 3,549,442.71 271,127.29 271,127.29 73,510,008,827.92 0.07
54 Jun-19 3,439,260.74 3,631,116.95 3,793,457.27
TOTAL 4,727,837.42 20,188,988.25 12,293,518,016,741.50 6.03 1,329,279.90 16,691,231.59 8,185,949,609,750.69 5.15 918,866.97 13,631,611.93 6,832,262,606,001.91 4.26
N 53.00 MAD 380,924.31 MAD 314,928.90 MAD 257,200.23
MSE 231,953,170,127.20 MSE 154,451,879,429.26 MSE 128,910,615,207.58
RMSE 481,615.17 RMSE 393,003.66 RMSE 359,041.24
MAPE (%) 11.37 MAPE (%) 9.72 MAPE (%) 8.03

jawaban D
Dari pemodelan diatas maka yang paling baik adalah menggunakan pemodelan menggunakan nilai constant 0.9 hal ini dapat di lihat dari nilai MAPE yang kecil (semakin kecil nilai MAPE maka semakin baik kemampuan forecastingnya)
dengan nilai forecast passengers di bulan Juni 2019 sebanyak 3,793,458 orang

Kesimpulan
dengan menggunakan 2 metode forcasting di atas (metode moving average dan metode Exponential smoothing models) maka dapat disimpulkan pemodelan menggunakan metode exponential smoothing model dengan nilai constant 0.9
menghasilkan nilai MAPE yang paling rendah yakni di angka 8.03% dengan nilai forecast passengers sebesar 3,793,458 orang