w5 0.

109864934526375
w4 0.1798
w3 0.2390
Prom EC WM 352.227985377163 w2 0.0038
18.7677378865212 w1 0.1844
w0 0.2832

1
2
y = 0.1855x - 1.3889x + 537.73
t D T Y Pron. Y - WMA
1 549.28 536.5266 12.75
2 564.97 535.6942 29.27
3 501.98 535.2328 -33.25
4 538.40 535.1424 3.25
5 539.24 535.423 3.81
6 585.66 536.0746 49.59
7.000 531.904 537.097 -5.193 13.476
8.000 549.352 538.491 10.862 5.702
9.000 560.426 540.255 20.170 0.149
10.000 552.648 542.391 10.257 20.589
11.000 549.813 544.898 4.915 14.758
12.000 557.916 547.775 10.141 10.469
13.000 565.259 551.024 14.236 10.020
14.000 575.966 554.643 21.322 13.191
15.000 557.174 558.634 -1.460 13.936
16.000 549.769 562.996 -13.227 8.006
17.000 552.689 567.728 -15.039 1.831
18.000 579.520 572.832 6.688 2.066
19.000 576.852 578.306 -1.454 4.120
20.000 593.829 584.152 9.677 -0.317
21.000 586.528 590.369 -3.841 -3.635
22.000 569.580 596.956 -27.376 -1.868
23.000 627.184 603.915 23.269 -9.222
24.000 606.292 611.244 -4.952 4.314
25.000 597.777 618.945 -21.168 3.447
26.000 625.565 627.017 -1.452 -12.990
27.000 606.197 635.459 -29.262 -4.116
28.000 624.417 644.273 -19.856 -8.641
29.000 649.447 653.457 -4.011 -14.417
30.000 637.140 663.013 -25.873 -9.604
31.000 638.194 672.940 -34.746 -17.721
32.000 654.876 683.237 -28.361 -24.791
33.000 658.517 693.906 -35.389 -22.279
34.000 676.813 704.945 -28.132 -24.468
35.000 716.416 716.356 0.060 -27.995
36.000 731.727 728.138 3.590 -21.172
37.000 716.648 740.290 -23.642 -16.453
38.000 728.727 752.814 -24.086 -22.235
39.000 770.866 765.708 5.157 -20.099
40.000 776.897 778.974 -2.077 -5.292
41.000 765.049 792.611 -27.562 -4.726
42.000 818.495 806.618 11.877 -17.782
43.000 790.382 820.997 -30.615 -7.422
44.000 846.143 835.746 10.396 -8.799
45.000 823.135 850.867 -27.732 -9.050
46.000 885.205 866.359 18.846 -8.397
47.000 874.689 882.221 -7.532 -7.946
48.000 907.025 898.455 8.570 -0.478
49.000 888.694 915.059 -26.366 -7.013
50.000 906.099 932.035 -25.936 -5.255
51.000 962.914 949.382 13.533 -13.632
52.000 999.306 967.099 32.207 1.715
53.000 1004.511 985.188 19.323 5.930
54.000 1008.961 1003.647 5.314 1.464
55.000 1035.308 1022.478 12.830 0.863
56.000 1065.183 1041.680 23.504 11.967
57.000 1085.088 1061.252 23.835 20.937
58.000 1072.993 1081.196 -8.203 19.415
59.000 1104.495 1101.510 2.985 8.305
60.000 1164.435 1122.196 42.239 7.931
61.000 1170.042 1143.253 26.790 23.813
62.000 1182.320 1164.680 17.640 20.293
63.000 1192.174 1186.479 5.695 11.951
64.000 1195.124 1208.648 -13.525 14.696
65.000 1246.692 1231.189 15.503 11.612
66.000 1253.394 1254.101 -0.707 15.591
67.000 1318.442 1277.383 41.059 10.083
68.000 1304.600 1301.037 3.563 11.285
69.000 1315.058 1325.061 -10.003 10.476
70.000 1323.472 1349.457 -25.985 -0.888
71.000 1354.621 1374.224 -19.603 2.199
72.000 1408.089 1399.361 8.728 -2.224
73.000 1437.874 1424.870 13.005 1.520
74.000 1443.230 1450.749 -7.519 -2.399
75.000 1497.841 1477.000 20.841 -10.155
76.000 1478.662 1503.622 -24.959 0.271
77.000 1545.474 1530.614 14.860 -0.730
78.000 1576.563 1557.978 18.585 1.185
79.000 1603.142 1585.712 17.430 12.966
80.000 1592.857 1613.818 -20.961 5.375
81.000 1652.231 1642.295 9.936 -1.299
82.000 1711.091 1671.142 39.949 3.386
83.000 1734.319 1700.361 33.958 22.206
84.000 1782.425 1729.950 52.474 17.186
 85.000 1781.505 1759.911 21.594 21.793
86.000 1799.793 1790.243 9.551 24.950
87.000 1815.594 1820.945 -5.352 23.274
88.000 1876.817 1852.019 24.798 23.363
89.000 1886.212 1883.463 2.749 24.399
90.000 1893.005 1915.279 -22.274 17.261
91.000 1928.810 1947.466 -18.655 -2.897
92.000 1964.270 1980.023 -15.753 -3.366
93.000 2001.676 2012.952 -11.276 -3.457
94.000 2024.582 2046.251 -21.670 -8.273
95.000 2045.464 2079.922 -34.458 -16.436
96.000 2073.503 2113.964 -40.460 -23.362
97.000 2149.492 2148.376 1.116 -25.470
98.000 2170.092 2183.160 -13.068 -16.211
99.000 2225.532 2218.314 7.217 -17.018
100.000 2232.914 2253.840 -20.926 -18.608
 Es mejor el metodo WMA porque tiene un promedio de error cuadratico
menor
Alfa 0.2604

Prom EC ES 366.1733
19.1357

Z1 / 2  s
Pron y - ES Error Cuadratico WMA Error Cuadratico ES PRON Y + T Error
12.75
12.749456078571
17.0524992245393
3.95275823411067
3.77087174099066
3.781818590668
15.711 348.524 436.968 550.573 -18.669
10.267 26.622 0.354 544.193 5.160
10.422 400.860 95.038 540.404 20.021
12.960 106.753 7.309 562.980 -10.332
12.256 96.886 53.893 559.656 -9.843
10.345 0.107 0.041 558.244 -0.328
10.292 17.774 15.556 561.044 4.216
11.319 66.115 100.070 567.834 8.131
13.924 237.042 236.664 572.570 -15.396
9.918 450.827 535.660 571.001 -21.233
3.890 284.614 358.327 569.559 -16.871
-1.040 21.360 59.716 574.898 4.622
0.973 31.076 5.892 582.426 -5.575
0.341 99.879 87.172 583.835 9.994
2.772 0.042 43.732 586.733 -0.205
1.050 650.668 808.039 595.088 -25.508
-6.353 1055.652 877.461 594.693 32.491
1.362 85.857 39.864 615.558 -9.266
-0.283 605.919 436.212 622.392 -24.615
-5.722 133.136 18.236 614.027 11.538
-4.610 632.315 607.720 631.343 -25.146
-11.030 125.772 77.906 635.631 -11.215
-13.328 108.285 86.817 639.041 10.406
-10.902 264.653 224.122 653.409 -16.268
-14.801 289.842 397.818 655.218 -17.025
-19.995 12.741 69.993 658.446 -3.570
-22.174 171.867 174.645 671.627 -13.110
-25.615 13.427 6.335 680.478 -3.664
-26.271 787.071 693.278 688.361 28.055
-19.414 613.110 529.144 706.966 24.761
-13.423 51.680 104.425 723.837 -7.189
-16.084 3.426 64.034 730.578 -1.851
-18.168 637.856 544.077 745.610 25.256
-12.094 10.337 100.338 773.682 3.215
-9.485 521.456 326.766 787.884 -22.835
-14.193 879.640 679.631 788.837 29.659
-7.403 537.905 538.760 813.575 -23.193
-13.448 368.467 568.566 826.947 19.195
-7.239 349.031 419.981 841.817 -18.682
-12.575 742.202 987.313 857.961 27.243
-4.393 0.171 9.858 874.275 0.414
-5.210 81.862 189.889 897.977 9.048
-1.622 374.533 612.265 908.047 -19.353
-8.066 427.701 319.347 926.780 -20.681
-12.719 737.922 689.174 935.750 27.165
-5.883 929.733 1450.802 968.814 30.492
4.037 179.367 233.668 991.118 13.393
8.018 14.822 7.312 1005.111 3.850
7.313 143.216 30.437 1023.341 11.967
8.750 133.096 217.666 1053.647 11.537
12.592 8.399 126.408 1082.190 2.898
15.520 762.736 562.803 1100.610 -27.618
9.342 28.305 40.416 1109.815 -5.320
7.687 1177.083 1193.888 1130.127 34.309
16.685 8.859 102.105 1167.066 2.976
19.316 7.041 2.811 1184.973 -2.653
18.880 39.143 173.846 1198.430 -6.256
15.446 796.429 839.305 1223.345 -28.221
7.901 15.141 57.783 1242.801 3.891
9.881 265.633 112.104 1269.692 -16.298
7.124 959.491 1151.595 1287.466 30.976
15.961 59.626 153.706 1312.322 -7.722
12.733 419.391 516.918 1335.537 -20.479
6.812 629.847 1075.618 1348.569 -25.097
-1.729 475.322 319.451 1376.423 -21.802
-6.384 119.942 228.384 1397.138 10.952
-2.448 131.889 238.800 1426.390 11.484
1.576 26.217 82.725 1448.350 -5.120
-0.793 960.732 468.011 1466.845 30.996
4.841 636.576 888.076 1503.893 -25.230
-2.920 243.043 316.101 1529.884 15.590
1.710 302.765 284.748 1559.163 17.400
6.105 19.924 128.252 1598.679 4.464
9.054 693.580 900.928 1619.193 -26.336
1.238 126.227 75.664 1640.996 11.235
3.503 1336.847 1328.320 1674.528 36.563
12.994 138.116 439.484 1722.567 11.752
18.454 1245.250 1157.384 1747.136 35.288
27.313 0.039 32.709 1781.704 -0.198
25.824 237.124 264.822 1815.192 -15.399
21.586 819.453 725.643 1844.220 -28.626
14.571 2.060 104.589 1875.381 1.435
17.234 468.698 209.819 1907.862 -21.649
13.462 1563.002 1277.053 1932.540 -39.535
1944.569 -15.759
1976.657 -12.387
2009.495 -7.819
2037.979 -13.397
2063.486 -18.022
2090.601 -17.098
2122.906 26.586
2166.949 3.143
2201.296 24.235
2235.232 -2.319
omedio de error cuadratico

Proba 0.95
Error Promedio -0.609
Desv. Est 18.87051925333
Z 1.644853626951
31.03924203629
Z1 / 2  s
Min (95%) Max (95%)
2500.00

f(x) = 0.1855189617976
R² = 0.99837680051528

2000.00

519.534 581.612
513.153 575.232
509.365 571.443
531.941 594.019 1500.00
528.617 590.695
527.205 589.283
530.004 592.083
536.795 598.874
541.531 603.609 1000.00
539.962 602.041
538.520 600.599
543.859 605.937
551.387 613.466
552.796 614.875 500.00

555.694 617.773
564.049 626.128
563.654 625.732
584.519 646.597
0.00
591.353 653.431 1 3 5 7 9 11 13
582.987 645.066
600.304 662.383
604.592 666.671
608.001 670.080
622.369 684.448
624.179 686.258
2500.00
627.407 689.485
640.587 702.666
649.438 711.517
657.322 719.400
675.927 738.005
692.798 754.876

2000.00
 699.539 761.618
714.571 776.649
742.643 804.721 2000.00
756.845 818.924
757.797 819.876
782.536 844.614
795.908 857.987
810.778 872.857
826.922 889.000
843.236 905.314
866.938 929.016
1500.00
877.007 939.086
895.741 957.819
904.710 966.789
937.775 999.854
960.079 1022.157
974.072 1036.150
992.302 1054.380
1022.607 1084.686
1051.150 1113.229 1000.00
1069.571 1131.650
1078.776 1140.855
1099.087 1161.166
1136.027 1198.105
1153.934 1216.013
1167.391 1229.469
1192.306 1254.384
1211.761 1273.840 500.00
1238.653 1300.731
1256.427 1318.506
1281.283 1343.361
1304.498 1366.576
1317.529 1379.608
1345.384 1407.462
1366.098 1428.177
1395.351 1457.429
1417.311 1479.389 0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1
1435.806 1497.884
1472.853 1534.932
1498.845 1560.923
1528.123 1590.202
1567.639 1629.718
1588.153 1650.232
1609.956 1672.035
1643.489 1705.567
1691.527 1753.606
1716.097 1778.176
1750.664 1812.743
1784.153 1846.231
1813.180 1875.259
1844.342 1906.421
1876.823 1938.901
1901.501 1963.579
1913.530 1975.608
1945.618 2007.696
1978.456 2040.534
2006.940 2069.018
2032.446 2094.525
2059.562 2121.640 Pronostico
2091.867 2153.946
2135.910 2197.988
2170.257 2232.336
2204.193 2266.272
2500.00

f(x) = 0.18551896179764 x² − 1.38886442759383 x + 537.729773699785

R² = 0.998376800515288

2000.00

1500.00

1000.00

500.00

0.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77

Chart Title
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 5

Column B Column C Column I Column L

 3 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99

hart Title
47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Column I Column L Column M

9 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99100