The predictive performance equation (PPE) is a mathematical
model of learning and retention that attempts to capitalize on the
regularities seen in human learning to predict future performance.
To generate predictions, PPE’s free parameters must be calibrated
to a minimum amount of historical performance data, leaving PPE
unable to generate valid predictions for initial learning events. We
examined the feasibility of using the data from other individuals,
who performed the same task in the past, to inform PPE’s free
parameters for new individuals (prior-informed predictions). This
approach could enable earlier and more accurate performance
predictions. To assess the predictive validity of this methodology,
the accuracy of PPE’s individualized and prior-informed
predictions before the point in time where PPE can be fully
calibrated using an individual’s unique performance history. Our
results show that the prior data can be used to inform PPE’s free
parameters, allowing earlier performance predictions to be made.